Free agent is fast approaching and we’re already started to duck and cover as Woj Bombs go off all around us. Still, despite the chaos, we’re going to keep soldiering a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents.
SERGE IBAKA
The player you’re getting
It’s natural to look back with a “what if” mentality to the core of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. Those three led Oklahoma City to the NBA Finals before any of them had even turned 25 years old.
Given that wealth of talent, it’s easy to forget that they actually had a fourth young star in the building in PF Serge Ibaka. The 16th child (of 18!) to his parents in the Congo, Ibaka flashed immense athleticism and immense potential. In the two seasons directly before and after the finals, Ibaka shot 55% from the field and averaged 3.3 blocks a game. The sky was the limit for him as he would continue to grow and evolve.
But perhaps Ibaka’s “evolved” too much now. He’s expanded his range, but changed his playing style with it, drifting farther and farther away from the basket and settling into passive play at times. You can blame that on any number of factors: was he jealous of Westbrook and Durant’s scoring numbers? Or their contracts? Or is truly older than his listed age of 27?
Either way, Ibaka’s a different player now in fundamental ways. His shooting range has become a major part of his game — firing off 4 threes per game last year at a 39% rate. But that progression to the perimeter has hurt him in terms of defensive numbers — logging just 6.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game last year. He’s not much of a physical freak or anomaly anymore — he’s more of the quintessential modern PF. In fact, the Toronto Raptors played him effectively as a stretch center in the playoffs, which could be a hint to his long-term future for his next contract.
The contract he’s getting
Part of the reason that Serge Ibaka’s bounced around lately — from Oklahoma City to Orlando to Toronto — is this perception that there’s going to be a major windfall coming his way. After all, he’s a star who’s entering free agency at 27 years old. $100 million seemed like a reasonable rate for his services.
Right now… I’m not so sure if he’s going to get that. Regardless about whether you believe he’s “27” or not, the change in his game is obvious. Even shooting threes (at a good rate), his efficiency and true shooting percentage has declined since his OKC heyday. You’d be hard pressed to argue that you’re getting the “prime years” of Serge Ibaka going forward.
That said, the Serge Ibaka that you are getting is still a good starter, and particularly intriguing as an option as a smallball center. Personally, I’d be a little wary about a major long-term contract for him right now, but see something like 3 years, $54 million as a reasonable rate given all these factors. I suspect he’ll get more than that, with 4 years, $80 million as a possibility.
The best fits
(3) Miami Heat
As he drifts to the perimeter, Serge Ibaka is starting to resemble another talented PF who did the same: Chris Bosh. With Bosh’s medical situation officially behind him, the Miami Heat have more cap money and playing time to offer to potential replacements like Ibaka. I happen to like their current PF James Johnson, but he’s also a free agent who may have upped his price quite a bit with a strong season.
As much as I like James Johnson, Ibaka would represent a more time-tested option with better range. If the team’s goal is to make the playoffs this year, adding Ibaka would help their cause.
(2) Denver Nuggets
Serge Ibaka, even this version of him, would fit and help any team in the league. But as we approach free agency, we’re starting to realize how few teams out there actually have the cap space to make waves for some of these star players. The Denver Nuggets, with only $57 owed on their books so far, will be a major player for almost all of them.
In terms of fit, the Nuggets and Serge Ibaka make some sense as well. The team’s cooled off on Kenneth Faried, who doesn’t offer much aid to a pace and space era of basketball. Ideally, you’d want to pair Nikola Jokic with a better shooter and rangier athlete. Serge Ibaka fits the bill on both accounts, being able to come in and fire threes and block shots. He’d also be able to slide over to center and give Jokic a breather in lineups that feature even smaller-ball PFs like Danilo Gallinari.
(1) Toronto Raptors
Presuming GM Masai Uriji doesn’t leave for the New York Knicks, he’s going to have some tough decisions to make this summer. Clearly, free agent Kyle Lowry is #1 on that priority list, but Serge Ibaka also makes for an interesting dilemma as well.
The Raptors have a solid Ibaka Lite player in Patrick Patterson (also a free agent) but it’s hard to consider him the long-term “answer” at PF. Ibaka didn’t help the team beat Cleveland (or even win a game) but he flashed some promise as a small ball center.
In fact, that’s why I see Ibaka staying with Toronto as a legitimate option. It’s not so much an overwhelming faith in Ibaka, but a declining faith in their current starting center Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas is a skilled big man with a scoring touch, but he’s going to struggle in the playoffs against the more fluid Clevelands of the world. If the team had actually made the Finals against Golden State, I’m not sure how many minutes he’d have been able to play. Given that, Ibaka has an added value in Toronto, as he can toggle between PF and C and give the team the versatility it needs to be a credible playoff force.
