We’re going to keep trying a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents and give my personal and amateur opinions about the best situations for them.
KYLE LOWRY
The player you’re getting
A stocky 6’0″ guard coming out of Villanova, there were doubts about how Kyle Lowry would translate to the NBA. Memphis selected him at #24, presuming he’d be a nice backup for them. Immediately, his toughness and tenacity showed, averaging 3.1 rebounds (1.2 offensive) and 1.4 steals in only 17.5 minutes per game as a rookie.
His size and shooting kept him as a rotational player, but that bulldog mentality made him an intriguing breakout candidate if a team ever handed him the reins to their PG position full-time. When he finally got that opportunity, he delivered, first in Houston and now in Toronto.
But I don’t think anyone could have seen him playing as well as he has these last four years in particular. Lowry’s three-point shooting has improved as much as any player in the league. A sub-30% shooter his first five years, he shot 41.2% from three (on 7.8 attempts per game) this year. That, coupled with an ability to get to the line and convert (81.9% on 6.1 attempts per game), has vaulted Lowry into another tier.
With Lowry, you’re getting an alpha dog and All-Star player who can give you strong PG play on both ends. Now, the natural question becomes: “How long can he keep this up?” Lowry is 31 right now, with a body type that may not be built to last. Overall, he’s one of the most appealing, but polarizing, free agents around.
The contract he’s getting
For most of the season, there was buzz about whether Toronto would re-sign Lowry for the max allowed, which would translate to around 5 years, $200 million. However, the Raptors would basically be bidding against themselves in that circumstance.
Given his age, and prior issues with injuries and conditioning, teams need to proceed with caution with Lowry. A fair deal for him may be a max-level contract for 3 seasons + a team option for 1 more. Anyone who commits to a longer deal with that could be playing with fire, given that Lowry will be a 35 by the end of the contract.
As mentioned, one issue that Lowry will have is a PG market that’s drying up. Philadelphia and Dallas were two PG-needy teams with cap space that selected one in the top 10, so they may be “out” of the bidding. I can see teams like the L.A. Clippers pursuing him (if Chris Paul leaves), or Houston (if they trade Patrick Beverly) but I’ll try to focus on teams with current needs.
The best fits
(3) San Antonio Spurs
As far as Chris Paul fallback options go, I actually prefer George Hill as a fit for San Antonio in terms of his presumed contract and fit with the Spurs culture.
That said, they’ll at least have to discuss Kyle Lowry as well. Lowry’s a better player at this stage of his career than Tony Parker or Patty Mills, and would give the team an extra jolt for their title chase. You can argue that the Spurs don’t need a dominating point guard given how well Kawhi Leonard has been playing, but there were clearly moments in the playoffs when the team became too reliant on him. Adding a scorer/shooter/playmaker like Lowry would take some of that pressure away. It would also buy the team time to develop Dejounte Murray, who’s only 20 years old and still years away from being a trustworthy starter.
In terms of team fit and chemistry, Lowry may be a little too inefficient for Gregg Popovich, but he’s a quality defender who should be able to make it work. There may be a few growing pains in terms of the system (a la Pau Gasol) but it’s an intriguing pairing nonetheless.
(2) Milwaukee Bucks
No matter how big of a discount Kyle Lowry takes in this market, the Milwaukee Bucks can’t afford him, given the fact that they’re committed to $110 million on their books (even before a Tony Snell extension.)
That said, there’s still a path forward if the team can be creative in a sign and trade. They have some salaries they can package together — Greg Monroe‘s $17 million and/or Mirza Teletovic $10 million for example — to make the numbers match. Obviously, Toronto’s not going to take back a bunch of dead weight, but if the Bucks wanted Lowry badly, so they’d need to include young assets or picks in the process. It’d be difficult to include Jabari Parker in any deal, but it’d certainly be quite the carrot to dangle. The Raptors, possibly gun-shy about Lowry’s long-term future, would have to consider that.
And the Bucks, even as young and promising as they are, would have to consider that as well. Kyle Lowry would immediately upgrade their PG spot (you could keep Malcolm Brogdon as a 6th man combo guard off the bench) and fit in with their culture of defensive intensity.
Offensively, Lowry’s a match as well. Giannis Antetokounmpo may be a LeBron-like playmaker and distributor, but even LeBron needs good scorers/shooters around him like Kyrie Irving. Lowry would take some of the pressure off the Greek Freak, who would become even harder to defend with a bomber like Lowry on the perimeter.
In theory, the Bucks should keep Jabari, stay young, and stay patient. There’s no need to go “all in” right now — particularly with LeBron James possibly leaving the conference next year. That said, a lineup with Giannis, Kyle Lowry, and wings like Tony Snell and Khris Middleton would be a scary one on both ends of the floor and be a legitimate threat right now.
(1) Toronto Raptors
The benefits of staying in Toronto are obvious, even aside from the money. Lowry has great chemistry with DeMar DeRozan, on and off the court. The pair have led the Raptors to perhaps their best era in the franchise’s young history.
But have they hit the end of the road? I was one of many who thought this particular Raptors unit could pose LeBron James and Cleveland some problems in the playoffs, but that never came into fruition. If Masai Ujiri paid huge money to bring free agents Lowry and Serge Ibaka back — what’s the end result? Another second-round playoff exit? Re-signing Lowry will ensure that Toronto stays in the thick of the playoff mix, but that’s about it.
And as they say: “familiarity breeds contempt.” That’s a strong word in this case, but I can see familiarity breeding resentment. If the Raptors give Lowry a long-term contract and it bites them, Raps fans may start turning on Lowry and grumbling about him being an albatross holding the team back. Given all that, I do think it makes some sense for the two to part now, on good terms, before that resentment breeds. I happen to like the Raptors’ young PG Delon Wright, who may be ready for an expanded role for the team.
All that said, there’s still too much tethering these two together — particularly with the other good options dwindling. In fact, the PG market drying up could be a great thing for Toronto, as it should keep Lowry’s price down into reasonable range. If the two can agree on a fair compromise (one that would make Lowry rich but not hamstring the franchise going forward), this marriage can be saved after all.
