We’re going to keep trying a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents and give my personal and amateur opinions about the best situations for them.
RUDY GAY
The player you’re getting
Players have a distinct and objective value, but our perception of them can waver back and forth over time. Last year’s “underrated” superstar may start to become “overrated” by next year or vice versa.
For scorers like Rudy Gay (and his super Saiyan version Carmelo Anthony), they tend to start their careers as overrated, vaulted to “star” status based on the raw stats alone. A talented #8 pick, Gay was averaging 20.1 points and 6.2 rebounds by his second year in the league.
As a result, he probably got overrated. Eventually, his efficiency (and lack thereof) became a problem. The age of advanced stats and analytics showed no mercy to raw stats stars. Before long, that star starts to resemble an albatross, especially with some seasons like 2012, when Gay shot 40.8% from the field (31.0% from three) for the Grizzlies, leading to the trade to Toronto. Everyone noted how Memphis appeared to improve without him (as did Toronto after).
As a result of that hate, I’d submit that Rudy Gay (and Carmelo Anthony) have officially entered “underrated” status now. He may have been miscast as a #1 or #2 scorer all of these years, but there’s plenty that Gay can do well. In fact, he was having one of his best seasons in Sacramento (albeit in a contract year), with averages of 18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and decent shooting numbers of 45.5% from the field, 37.2% from three, and 85.5% from the line (totaling a respectable 55.9% true shooting percentage.)
Personally, I believe that “ball-stoppers” like Rudy Gay and Carmelo Anthony can play more efficiently if they feel like they have better teammates around them and don’t need to force the issue; like Melo, Rudy Gay fit in well in a brief stint on Team USA. The perception that Gay’s a terrible defender isn’t wholly true, either. At 6’8″, 230, he has the size and athleticism to guard either forward spot; in fact, ESPN’s real plus/minus recorded his defensive impact as a +1.96 this year.
The contract he’s getting
Presuming that he’s healthy, Rudy Gay could be an effective 4th or 5th starter for a contender, and a valuable and versatile roster piece. A player like that could be looking at around $15 million a season.
But unfortunately for him, he’s not healthy. Gay ruptured his Achilles in January. I’m not a doctor, but I would naturally presume that Gay’s going to limited early his season. His contract is also going to be limited as a result.
Gay opted out of a Kings’ contract that would have paid him $14.3 million this year, which can be seen as an odd decision. It’s natural that Gay may have wanted to score one last long-term contract while he can, but I’m not sure those offers will be flooding in until he can prove that he’s 100% healthy again. Any team that pays him $15+ million over multiple years is making quite an act of faith.
More likely, Gay will have to rehab his body and rehab his image this year. A short-term contract (with a player option to opt out next summer) could be in his best interest. It makes sense for him to go to a good team, have a good end of the season, prove that he’s “winning” player, and then try to cash in later on.
The best fits
(3) Miami Heat
Pat Riley and the Miami Heat are going to have their eyes on bigger prizes than Rudy Gay, but if they strike out this summer, I can see Rudy Gay being a legitimate and viable backup plan.
The Heat have minutes to spare at both forward spots, particularly if James Johnson doesn’t return to the team. A veteran like Rudy Gay fits into the timeline of a team that can contend for the playoffs now, with Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside essentially in their primes.
What I like best about this fit is the medical one: the Miami Heat manage to train their players well and get them into great shape. Rudy Gay, who’s coming off an Achilles injury and turning 31, should be putting more effort into his body than ever before in order to avoid adding too much weight and stress to his lower body.
(2) Houston Rockets
At first glance, the perceived ball-stopper Rudy Gay doesn’t fit with the Mike D’Antoni offense, where James Harden is going to be controlling the ball and kicking it to catch-and-shoot shooters.
However, I believe that Gay can play well for a team like that, who would take the ball out of his hands and make him more of a role player going forward.
The path to playing time isn’t clear right away, because the team has Trevor Ariza at SF and Ryan Anderson at PF. But again: that may suit Rudy Gay well. He can come off the bench (especially as he rounds back into health) and provide depth at both positions. I particularly like him subbing in for Anderson as a stretch 4 when Anderson starts to struggle defensively. Gay’s better on that end, and offers more spacing than most 4s.
(1) Los Angeles Clippers
Doc Rivers and the Clippers have been interested in Carmelo Anthony in the past, so it’s natural that they’d be intrigued by Melo Lite in Rudy Gay as well.
At the moment, they have cap space, but that will get clogged up by massive extensions for Chris Paul and Blake Griffin (presuming they re-sign) and possibly J.J. Redick as well. Of the three, Redick appears to be the least likely to return. If he doesn’t, there could be room to squeeze Rudy Gay onto the team on a short-term “prove it” deal.
The Clippers have tried and failed to find a small forward for years now, with some high-profile bombs like Jeff Green and some good ones (like Joe Ingles and Jared Dudley) that they let get away. In my mind, Gay’s better than Jeff Green (a former “star” who’s legitimately a net “negative”) and could start for them. Gay also has the size to spot Blake Griffin minutes at power forward. Griffin gets worn out by his playing style and could use to have his minutes reduced. In turn, the Clippers would be wise to utilize a backup PF who can actually space the floor out to three, unlike their other attempts at a backup like Brandon Bass and Big Baby Davis.
If Rudy Gay can look good in a Clippers uniform and contribute during the playoffs, then he can resuscitate his market value and set himself up for a bigger contract next summer. And maybe, just maybe, he’ll change the perception about him as well.
