Breaking down Alex Cobb heading into free agency.
Alex Cobb will likely garnish a lot of interest among the many teams in search of more help in their rotation.
The 30-year-old right-hander has very solid career numbers with a 3.50 ERA, 1.2 WHIP on 115 starts and 700 innings pitched. Cobb has become more of a fly ball pitcher in the last year as his splitter usage has gone down, and his curveball usage has gone up. When the ball is hit in the air to the outfield, batters are hitting just .195 with a .190 on-base percentage.
In 2016 Cobb made just five starts before undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery. While modern medicine has enabled Tommy John surgery not be the death sentence it used to be, there’s no guarantee that the player will come back the same.
Glancing at Cobb’s 2017 stats, he had a very respectable season. A 3.66 ERA in a year when offense and the long ball took over is not too shabby. The Boston native made a career-best 29 starts, something that is good to see for any team trying to get Cobb’s services after his significant injury.
There was some good from his final numbers last season, but there are some things that are cause for concern. His strikeout rate is down. It went from the low 20s at the beginning of his career in 2013 and 2014, to around 16 percent this year. He also allowed his highest hard-hit ball rate of his career, which makes it seem as if he had some luck last season. In turn, the number of home runs he gave up increased as well. Before 2017, the most he had given up in a season was 13. He gave up 22 long balls last season.
Tommy John surgery is not the only notable injury Cobb has sustained. Many remember the very scary incident in 2013 in which he was struck in the head by a line drive, and taken off of the field on a stretcher.
Coming back from such an injury is almost as much mental as it is physical. Putting yourself back into that situation and not be gun-shy is no easy feat, and it seems Cobb has been able to do just that.
Cobb can slot into a rotation as a serviceable number two starter, or a solid number three. Most playoff contenders will look to add him as a third starter.
In 2013, Cobb made his only two playoff starts of his career. His first matchup was a Wild Card game against the Cleveland Indians. The righty tossed six and two-thirds innings of scoreless ball while surrendering eight hits and striking out five batters. In the following round against the Boston Red Sox, Cobb pitched five innings, gave up three runs, and walked two hitters.
The front-runners to land Cobb seem to be the Chicago Cubs. Not only do they have his former manager Joe Maddon, whom he has said he really liked, but now his former pitching for the Rays coach in Jim Hickey. Hickey coached Cobb all six of his season in the MLB. Cobb said he would be “Very Honored” to discuss a deal with the two along with the Cubs front office.
