Paul George and Russell Westbrook will now be teaming up.
In my opinion (and one that’s been shared by many), OKC GM Sam Presti is teaching a master class this summer, and help make his mere playoff team into a legitimate force. Among the reasons why:
(1) He realized that last season’s success wasn’t sustainable
Presti and the Oklahoma City Thunder received a gut punch last July 4th when Kevin Durant announced he was leaving the team for Golden State. Think what you want about Durant as a person (apparently most of /NBA Reddit thinks he’s a punk), but he’s a legitimate top 3 player in the NBA and one of the greatest players of all time. It’s nearly impossible to replace that kind of production and efficiency, especially when your payroll’s already stocked full.
Given that, Oklahoma City downplayed the idea of a title last year and embraced the narrative of Russell Westbrook’s MVP campaign. Their efforts worked, and that style of play actually had some success in the standings as well: tallying a 47-35 record.
However, the deeper numbers suggest that win total was higher than it should have been in normal circumstances. I’m not inclined to call anything in basketball a “fluke” or “luck,” because the players earned those results and Russell Westbrook, in particular, helped pull out a lot of close wins. But statistically speaking, 47 wins would have been difficult for the team to repeat. The Thunder’s point differential last season was only +0.8 per game, more in line with a 44-win team.
The team may have regressed in other ways as well. Last season, Russell Westbrook shot 34.3% from three. That doesn’t sound so amazing until you consider that he’s a lifetime 31.3% shooter. You can argue that Westbrook is simply improving like many guards do (like Kyle Lowry), except that Westbrook’s shown no true signs of improving before this year. In fact, he’d been below 30% each of the prior two seasons. It’s safe to presume his shooting would have regressed some, which is impactful when you shoot as often as he did (7.2 threes and 24.0 attempts overall.)
Westbrook also played 81 games last year, which is remarkable in its own right given how much responsibility he had. The Thunder had fairly good injury luck last year, with 80 games from Steven Adams and 79 from Andre Roberson as well. Some bad breaks in that regard would have exposed their poor depth even more.
There are other factors to consider — on the plus side, the team would/could have Taj Gibson for a full season. On the negative side, the Western Conference got even tougher. But all in all, it’s safe to presume that the Thunder would NOT have been as successful as they were last year; if they ran the entire unit back, 45 wins may have been optimistic. And in the West, 45 wins isn’t doing much for you. It may not even make the playoffs next year.
Sam Presti knew that and knew that he had to shake it up. And so, he did.
(2) He swept in at Paul George at the exact right time
Paul George and his reps floated the idea that he was destined to go to the Lakers, which may still be true. Allegedly, that was an earnest effort on his part to be “fair” to Indiana and clear about his intentions. However, I suspect that George’s team actually wanted to hurt Indiana: by declaring him a goner, they’d drive down the Pacers’ trade leverage, and make them accept a below-market deal to a team like the Lakers that could leave L.A. well-stocked for George.
The declarations worked to drive his price down, allowing Presti to swoop in with an offer of Victor Oladipo (and his big contract) and Domantas Sabonis.
At first blush, Paul George is an IDEAL partner for Russell Westbrook on both ends of the court. Defensively, Westbrook can lose focus oftentimes. Having a versatile wing like George should help OKC quite a bit in that regard by locking down a perimeter threat. Offensively, George’s shooting offers much-needed spacing to Westbrook as well as a secondary playmaker to take the pressure off.
In fact, you can argue that George is an even better complement to Westbrook than Durant. Don’t get me wrong: he’s decisively worse than Durant, but that’s the point. Durant and Westbrook were always going to butt heads over who should be leading the offense, but there won’t be a tug of war with George. George can enter OKC as the CLEAR #2 option, especially given Westbrook’s MVP campaign.
The exact effect of an Oladipo for Paul George can be debated. ESPN’s real plus/minus had Paul George as a +2.58 impact overall over 100 possessions, compared to +1.66 for Oladipo. On the face value of that, we’re only talking about an additional 2-3 wins. However, that doesn’t factor in all the defensive attention George dealt with in Indiana; presuming he takes advantage of more open looks, he should improve his own efficiency. I’d expect about a 4-5 win improvement from this move (which is a lot in the NBA.)
As an added bonus, it also will mean fewer minutes for Domantas Sabonis. I like Sabonis’ potential, but OKC overplayed him as a rookie last year with 20.1 minutes over 81 games. He was in over his head and a net negative; losing him will help in the short term.
(3) He didn’t overpay for Taj Gibson
One of Presti’s big moves last season was to acquire the hard-nosed vet Taj Gibson (and Doug McDermott) — and that made a lot of sense as well. Gibson’s a dogged defender and a good mid-range shooter.
But Gibson’s reputation as a warrior also inflated his price, in my mind. The Timberwolves signed him to a deal that’s worth $14 million per year. It makes sense on their behalf, but it probably would have been an “overpay” for a playoff-experienced Thunder team that doesn’t need that type of veteran leadership and defensive culture change as badly.
In his place, Presti signed PF Patrick Patterson to a contract worth a total of $16.3 million over three years. Simply put: it may be the best free agent signing of the entire summer.
Patterson offers a lot of the same qualities as Gibson, without the national recognition. He’s a solid mid-range shooter (with longer range, out to 3, actually) and a fluid defender with a natural basketball savvy and IQ. The advanced stats have always liked Patterson more than the raw stats do: in fact, ESPN’s real plus/minuted calculated his impact as being the 9th best PF in the league last year (Taj was #29). To make matters even better, Patterson’s four years younger than Gibson as well.
About a week ago, I ranked Patrick Patterson as my #4 best bargain free agent. The common complaint? He shouldn’t have qualified because he was clearly going to get rich. Redditors blasted me: “PPAT will not be a bargain. I’d expect at least 8 figures.” “Patterson is going to get $10+, that’s not exactly a bargain.” Turns out: he was a bargain indeed — in fact, even more so than I anticipated.
(4) He still has more work to do
Sam Presti’s summer isn’t over yet. If the goal is to make as deep of a playoff push as possible (which is should be, given the expiring contracts of his stars) then he still has some more moves to make.
For one, I’d try to re-sign Andre Roberson if possible. Roberson’s market has been frozen, like a lot of restricted free agents this summer. I’d try to take advantage of that and keep him at a reasonable rate, even if it’s a 1-year deal. He has his flaws, clearly, but he’s one of the best defensive wings in the NBA. Between Roberson and Paul George, you’re going to have a nasty combination.
I’d also try to find an upgrade for backup PG Semaj Christon, who was one of the worst rotational players in the league last year. The team has an opportunity to be quite good this year, so it doesn’t make sense to waste those minutes on a developmental project. You can find a competent vet for the league minimum, which would be a cheap way to improve the team.
All in all, I don’t actually expect Oklahoma City to challenge Golden State for the title, but they can challenge everyone else. Right now I’d peg them at about 52-53 wins and maybe the #4 seed in the West. That may not sound like a major improvement, but it’s a fundamental one: this season isn’t going to be about individual awards, it’s going to be about going for it all.
