What does the Gerrit Cole deal do for the Astros?
“The rich get richer.” It’s an old saying, but never has it been truer than this offseason in the American League. After losing in a heartbreaking seven-game ALCS, the Yankees went out and traded for the only player who hit more home runs than Aaron Judge last season, forming the modern day bash brothers by bringing Giancarlo Stanton to pinstripes. Not one to be outdone, the team that beat the Yankees for the American League pennant, and the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros, went out and made a blockbuster move of their own, acquiring Pittsburgh Pirates ace right-hander Gerrit Cole.
After winning 101 games last season, the Astros acquired Cole, 27, in exchange for right-handers Joe Musgrove, and Michel Feliz, as well as prospects Colin Moran and Jason Martin. For the Pirates, the trade was all about receiving as large of a quantity of cost efficient, and team-controlled talent as possible. In Moran, Feliz, and Musgrove, they are getting just that, with fifteen years total of team control between them before any of the players hit free agency.
Musgrove, 25, is the most recognizable name the Pirates are receiving in the trade, having gone 7-8 with a 4.77 ERA in 38 games for the Astros last season, including an additional four innings in the World Series. Out of the bullpen, Feliz, 24, holds a career 12.8 K/9 at the MLB level, but control issues have limited him to a 5.13 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. Moran, 25, was a first round pick of the Miami Marlins in 2013, and hit .308/.373/.543 while primarily playing third base for AAA Fresno. Martin, 22, is a left-handed hitting outfielder who hit .278/.332/.487 with 18 HR, and 66 RBI between A and AA last season.
Even in what many considered a down 2017, Cole had another stellar season, going 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.251 WHIP in 203.0 innings pitched. Cole led the National league with 33 starts in 2017, striking out 196 batters, and compiling 2.8 WAR. While Cole hasn’t lived all the way up to the hype of being the first pick in the 2011 MLB Draft out of UCLA, he still has a career 3.50 ERA, 1.217 WHIP, and 59-42 record in 127 games. One constant throughout Cole’s career has been his electric stuff, having thrown the second most pitchers of 96 MPH+ since 2015.
For the Astros, this trade has already been praised, as they were able to keep top prospects Forrest Whitley, Kyle Tucker, and Derek Fisher, the first two of whom are amongst the 35 best prospects in baseball. In landing Cole, who is only making $6.75 million this season and has one more year of arbitration remaining, the Astros now have another cost-efficient ace under team control, making up a legitimate five deep rotation. It may seem crazy, but the Astros have a chance to improve upon a unit that according to ESPN Stats & Information ranked sixth in the MLB last season in ERA, WHIP, strikeout percentage, and opponent batting average. With more than five starts from Justin Verlander coming this season, the sky truly is the limit for the Astros rotation, which looks like the following.
1. Justin Verlander, 6.4 WAR, 15-8, 3.36 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 206.0 IP, 219 K
2. Dallas Keuchel, 3.9 WAR, 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 145.2 IP, 125 K
3. Gerrit Cole, 2.8 WAR, 12-12, 4.26 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 203.0 IP, 196 K
4. Lance McCullers Jr. 1.0 WAR, 7-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 118.2 IP, 132 K
5. Charlie Morton, 14-7, 1.8 WAR, 3.62 ERA, 1.193 WHIP, 146.2 IP, 163 K
The Astros rotation now includes four All-Stars, two Cy Young Award winners, an AL MVP, the 2017 ALCS MVP, and the two pitchers who combined to throw 6.1 scoreless innings to win Game 7 of the 2017 World Series. Now more than ever, the Astros have depth behind Verlander and Keuchel, adding another workhorse in case McCullers battles injuries once again, or Morton reverts back to his pre-2017 numbers. Additionally, their bullpen gets even deeper by getting to move Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh into relief roles after Peacock went 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 3.2 WAR last season, and McHugh went 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.2 WAR.
Most importantly, Cole still gives the Astros payroll flexibility for the next two seasons, and into the future. In his second year of arbitration eligibility this offseason, Cole agreed to a one-year, $6.75 million contract with the Pirates before being traded; even if that number doubles to $13.5 million next year, Cole will still be a relative bargain for the Astros. With Cole in the picture, the Astros current payroll is at $130,465,000; once they sign their pre-arbitration players, and settle arbitration hearings with George Springer, Collin McHugh, and Ken Giles, their payroll heading into 2018 should be around the $155 million mark, giving them $40+ million of wiggle room to make moves while staying under the luxury tax.
From a financial standpoint, the biggest implication of this deal is that the Astros are now out on the top two free-agent starters on the market, Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish. With both pitchers expecting to command deals well over $100 million over the length of five or more years, Cole came at a much smaller risk and investment for the Astros, but also fewer proven results. However, when you compare all three pitchers’ numbers from 2017, Cole’s were not significantly far off from Darvish and Arrieta’s,
Cole: 2.8 WAR, 12-12, 4.26 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 203.0 IP, 196 K
Darvish: 3.8 WAR, 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 186.2 IP, 209 K
Arrieta: 1.9 WAR, 13-8, 3.35 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 168.1 IP, 163 K
Cole had more WAR and strikeouts than Arrieta, more wins than Darvish, and the most innings pitched of the three pitchers, Cole was the only one of the trio to crack 200 innings in 2017, and also comes with the least amount of injury baggage. Darvish is only two years out from Tommy John Surgery, and Arrieta was limited last season due to hamstring and back injuries, leading to his innings total decreasing for the second straight season. While Cole may not have as strong of a career track record as Darvish or Arrieta, he may be the most durable of the three. Combine that with the fact that he is the youngest pitcher of the trio by four years and likely still has the most untapped upside, Gerrit Cole appears to be the ultimate value play for the Astros in their quest to find another ace to help them repeat as champions.
Just when you thought the Astros couldn’t get better, the pressure is now on for the Astros to take an even bigger leap, and by season’s end to be mentioned among some of the greatest teams of all-time.
