Wade Phillips has been very good as the Broncos DC.
Denver president of football operations / GM John Elway has earned a reputation as one of the best in the game. He deserves a lot of the credit for building his 2010s Denver Broncos into a force, with both a historically great offense and historically great defense (albeit not at the exact same time). In the four seasons from 2012-15, the Broncos averaged 12.5 wins per season and won a Super Bowl.
His bold gambles (that worked)
There are certain foundational pieces of this Broncos core that John Elway doesn’t necessarily deserve a pat on the back about. At Texas A&M, Von Miller established himself a super prospect, with an ability to bend around the edge that appeared almost supernatural. He was a no-brainer top 3 pick (#2 for them) that any team that needed an edge rusher would have selected. On the other hand, there are some Elway moves that almost no other GM would have done.
The first came after the 2011 season when Elway actively tried to replace media darling, Tim Tebow. To the eye, Tebow looked extremely limited in “leading” the Broncos to an 8-8 season. On the other hand, he did just win a playoff game in overtime and justified his defenders’ talk about his magic, his X-factor, his intangibles. He was a “winner!” Most GMs would have brought back Tebow for another year (even if they didn’t believe in him) if only so he could fail on the field and justify moving on. Elway didn’t give a shit. He found a new QB instead.
In fact, he trusted a QB that had been coming off multiple neck surgeries in Peyton Manning. At the time, this wasn’t considered a slam dunk move. Most people thought Manning was cooked. Obviously, that turned out to be incorrect, as Manning thrived in a new era of pace, racking up new passing records and MVPs before his body ended up breaking down for good.
The second bold gamble that John Elway made was replacing coach John Fox after the 2014 season. At the time, Fox had rallied off consecutive seasons of 13-3, 13-3, and 12-4. The playoffs had gone poorly (2-3 record), but Fox was still extremely well respected. He also had an offensive coordinator in Adam Gase that was one of the hottest rising stars in the league. 95% of GMs may have stayed the course there with that tandem, but Elway didn’t. For him, “good” wasn’t good enough.
He ended up replacing Fox with his buddy Gary Kubiak. Kubiak didn’t click with Peyton Manning, but he did come as a package deal with a DC named Wade Phillips (who had been out of the league, unable to get a job.) Phillips turned that great 4-3 defense into a phenomenal 3-4, which turned out to be the difference in helping drag an over-the-hill Peyton Manning to the finish line and that final Super Bowl trophy. Long-term, Kubiak/Phillips were not meant to last, but they proved to be the difference in that title run.
Two huge risks, two home runs. It’s no wonder that we trusted Elway’s gambling from there.
His bold gambles (that haven’t worked out so far)
Since that Super Bowl, Elway’s gambles have started to go south.
The first would be his fumbling of the QB position. Depending on which accounts you believe, Elway either let Brock Osweiler go in free agency (good call!), or he offered him a big contract that Osweiler happened to turn down (eh, nevermind?).
From there, Elway thought he found his replacement in big 6’7″ Memphis QB Paxton Lynch. Lynch had the physical tools for the position, but anytime a potential franchise QB falls to # 26, there are some red flags as well. For Lynch, it was the fact that he exploded onto the scene suddenly, and in a QB-friendly offense that tends to balloon statistics. Some also questioned Lynch’s football character as well.
Elway must have trusted that Lynch would take over because his veteran bridge signing was Mark Sanchez, a QB who wouldn’t last through the preseason. Instead, unheralded youngster, Trevor Siemian beat them both out and lead the team in 2016. (You can’t blame Elway for drafting Siemian; any time a R7 pick gets 20 starts in the NFL, that’s a solid selection.)
But right now, the Broncos have no clear answer at QB. Siemian has fallen back to Earth. The return of Brock Osweiler has gone as poorly as you’d expect. Paxton Lynch isn’t yet ready, be it because of skill or health. The QB that I’m most intrigued with would be rookie Chad “Swag” Kelly, but he’s currently on the IR with an injury himself.
The other big gamble that concerns me is his new coaching hire in Vance Joseph. Joseph was a promising young coach, but not one that screamed that he was “ready” for his opportunity after only one (mediocre) year as the defensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins. But Elway saw something in Joseph and took that leap of faith.
So far, the defense has regressed in the transition. Under Wade Phillips, this Broncos pass defense was extraordinary: holding opponents to a 69.7 QB rating in 2016. That number has spiked to 92.4 this season so far this season. You can blame the injury to edger usher Shane Ray for some of that, but it’s a concern nonetheless. This defense has gone from “amazing” to “very good,” and may keep trending down from here. Their top stars Von Miller and Chris Harris are the tail end of their prime at 28, and Aqib Talib is 31, with T.J. Ward already out the door.
More than anything, that makes me worried that the Broncos have blown this opportunity and lost two prime years from their Super Bowl window, thanks to some gambles that may have backfired.
If the Broncos can solve the QB position for next season (be it with a breakout from Paxton Lynch or Chad Kelly, or the signing of a veteran QB), then they should vault back into contending status. But right now, at 3-5 (with a -48 point differential), they’re not that. And unfortunately, John Elway has no one to blame but himself.
