The Rays got younger, cheaper, and worse, this offseason.
This past week at spring training, Tampa Bay Rays Gold Glove-winning center fielder Kevin Kiermaier publically spoke out against the team’s offseason moves, telling the Tampa Bay Times, “I am 100 percent frustrated and very upset with the moves, no beating around the bush.” “It’s one of those things that makes you scratch your head — you don’t know the reasoning why. And then you see the team’s explanation and still it’s just like, ‘OK well, so be it.” Kiermaier’s comments came after an offseason that saw the Rays part ways with franchise cornerstones Evan Longoria and Alex Cobb, as well as All-Star Corey Dickerson, Jake Odorizzi, and Steven Souza Jr. Additionally, the Rays swapped out 38 home run hitter Logan Morrison for the newly acquired C.J. Cron. After the team traded Odorizzi and designed Dickerson for assignment, Rays ace Chris Archer told the Times, “With both of those moves were not as good as we were 24 hours ago, I’ll leave it at that just because there is uncertainty. Young arms could step up. Young bats could step up and fill that position Corey was going to be in. But as of today, our team is not quite as good as it was yesterday.”
With opening day approaching, it appears that the Rays will have new starters at six positions, and at least two new members in their starting rotation. With the Rays having brought in Denard Span and Carlos Gomez to help sure up their outfield, below is a look at the Rays 2017 starting lineup compared to their projected replacements in 2018. The Rays starters from 2017 are listed first at each position, while each player’s stats are from 2017 unless otherwise noted.
First Base: Logan Morrison vs. C.J. Cron
Morrison: 38 HR, 85 RBI, .246/.353/.516, 75 R, 126 H, 22 2B, 2 SB, 3.6 WAR, 135 OPS+
Cron: 16 HR, 56 RBI, .248/.305/.437, 39 R, 84 H, 14 2B, 3 SB, 0.8 WAR, 99 OPS+
Second Base: Brad Miller vs. Daniel Robertson
Miller: 9 HR, 40 RBI, .201/.327/.337, 43 R, 68 H, 13 2B, 5 SB, 0.6 WAR, 84 OPS+
Daniel Robertson: 5 HR, 19 RBI, .239/.326/.389, 22 R, 45 H, 12 2B, 1 SB, 0.6 WAR, 75 OPS+
Third Base: Evan Longoria vs. Matt Duffy
Longoria: 20 HR, 86 RBI, .261/.313/.424, 71 R, 160 H, 36 2B, 6 SB, 3.6 WAR, 100 OPS+
Duffy (2016 Stats, missed 2017 with torn Achilles): 5 HR, 28 RBI, .258/.310/.357, 41 R, 86 H, 14 2B, 8 SB, 0.1 WAR, 82 OPS+
Designated Hitter: Lucas Duda vs. Brad Miller
Duda: 30 HR, 64 RBI, .217/.322/.496, 50 R, 92 H, 28 2B, 0 SB, 1.1 WAR, 116 OPS+
Miller: 9 HR, 40 RBI, .201/.327/.337, 43 R, 68 H, 13 2B, 5 SB, 0.6 WAR, 84 OPS+
Right Field: Steven Souza vs. Carlos Gomez
Souza: 30 HR, 78 RBI, .239/.351/.459, 78 R, 125 H, 21 2B, 16 SB, 4.2 WAR, 121 OPS+
Gomez: 17 HR, 51 RBI, .255/.340/.462, 51 R, 94 H, 23 2B, 13 SB, 1.8 WAR, 106 OPS+
Left Field: Corey Dickerson vs. Denard Span
Dickerson: 27 HR, 62 RBI, .282/.325/.490, 84 R, 166 H, 33 2B, 4 SB, 2.7 WAR, 120 OPS+
Span: 12 HR, 43 RBI, .272/.329/.427, 73 R, 135 H, 31 2B, 12 SB, -1.1 WAR, 100 OPS+
Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb vs. Nathan Eovaldi and Matt Andriese
Cobb: 12-10, 179.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 128 K, 2.91 K/BB, 2.3 WAR, 113 ERA+
Odorizzi: 10-8, 143.1 IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 127 K, 2.08 K/BB, 0.0 WAR, 100 ERA+
Eovaldi (2016 Stats, missed 2017 with an elbow injury): 9-8, 4.76 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, 97 K, 2.43 K/BB, 1.3 WAR, 90 ERA+
Andriese: 5-5, 4.50 ERA, 86.0 IP, 1.372 WHIP, 76 K, 2.71 K/BB, 0.1 WAR, 92 ERA+
Defense
First Base: Cron 3 Defensive Runs Saved, Morrison 1 Defensive Runs Saved
Second Base: Robertson 0 Defensive Runs Saved, Miller -4 Defensive Runs Saved
Third Base: Longoria 11 Defensive Runs Saved, Duffy 11 Defensive Runs Saved (2016)
Right Field: Souza 7 Defensive Runs Saved, Gomez -3 Defensive Runs Saved (In center field)
Left Field: Dickerson -1 Defensive Runs Saved, Span -27 Defensive Runs Saved (In center field)
From an offensive standpoint, the Rays appear on the surface to have gotten worse at every position they are running out a new starter, with every replacement player having put up a lower WAR and OPS+ last season than the player they are replacing. In the starting rotation, Eovaldi is coming back from Tommy John surgery and has not pitched in the big leagues since 2016, while at the moment, it appears that Andriese is not on the same level as Cobb or Odorizzi, yet it should be noted he has yet to have a chance to start for a full season. Defensively, the Rays infield should be just as good if not better than last season, although it remains to be seen how Duffy’s Achilles will respond to major league action. While Span and Gomez did not grade well defensively last season, it will be interesting if a move to the corners will benefit the longtime center fielders as they continue to age into their 30s. Anything can happen in 2018; that is the beauty of the game of baseball. However, at least from a statistical basis, it appears as if the Rays are headed for a significant downgrade from their 80-win total in 2017.
