Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer throws during a baseball game against the New York Mets at Nationals Park, Wednesday, June 29, 2016, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) Max Scherzer became the third fastest pitcher to 2,000 strikeouts.
With a strikeout of Nomar Mazara to start off the fourth inning of his start against the Rangers on Sunday, Max Scherzer became the third fastest pitcher to 2,000 strikeouts, tying Nolan Ryan by doing so in only 287 games, behind only Clayton Kershaw (277 games) and Randy Johnson (262 games). Additionally, Scherzer faced the fewest amount of batters to reach the total at 7,277 batters, seven fewer than Johnson. Despite giving up four runs in 7.1 innings pitched, Scherzer still struck out ten batters against only two walks, his fourth straight game with 10+ strikeouts; over his past four starts, Scherzer’s strikeout to walk ratio sits at 48:6.
For the season, Scherzer is sitting at 7-4 with a 2.36 ERA (third in the NL), 0.85 WHIP, and a league leading 124 strikeouts. His K: BB ratio is an elite 124:21, good for a league-leading 5.6 strikeouts per walk, and he is second in the NL in WAR amongst NL pitchers with 3.0. Additionally, Scherzer is first in the NL with 91.2 innings pitched, and is also first in WHIP, hits/9 innings (5.6) and K/9 (12.2).
Last season, Scherzer won his second Cy Young Award with 25 out of 30 place votes and made his fourth straight All-Star appearance. In total, Scherzer went 20-7 (the most wins in the NL) and led the league with a 2.96 ERA, 34 starts, 228.1 innings pitched, 284 strikeouts, a 0.968 WHIP and 5.07 K: BB ratio. He became the sixth pitcher to win the Cy Young Award in both the American and National League, tied the major league record with twenty strikeouts in a nine-inning game, and became the 17th pitcher to defeat all 30 teams. Which begs the following question; is it possible that a consensus top two pitcher in the game along with Clayton Kershaw, and the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, is somehow underappreciated?
Let’s look at Scherzer’s past four seasons, from 2013, his first Cy Young season with the Tigers, through 2016. Over this span, Scherzer won two Cy Young Awards, threw two no-hitters in 2015, had the 20-strikeout game, and signed a $210 million dollar contract with the Nationals. He also led the league in wins three times, WHIP and K: BB ratio twice, and complete games, innings pitched, strikeouts, and shutouts once. His four-year totals were as follows: 73-27, a 2.95 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in 132 starts and 891.2 innings pitched, and 1052 strikeouts against only 209 walks. Additionally, Scherzer accumulated 26.0 WAR over the four seasons.
Scherzer’s seasonal average from 2013-2016 were as follows: 18-7, 2.95 ERA, 33 starts, 223 innings pitched, 263 strikeouts, 1.007 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9, 10.6 K/9, 5.03 K: BB ratio, and 6.5 WAR. This season, by ESPN’s projections, Scherzer is on pace to throw 234.2 innings, going 18-10 with a 2.36 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 319 strikeouts, which would put him well on his way to another 6.5+ WAR season, and in contention for his third Cy Young Award (In the Neyer/James Guide to pitchers, Scherzer is currently predicted to take home the award yet again).
If Scherzer claims his third Cy Young Award, he would be the tenth pitcher to do so; seven of the nine pitchers who have accomplished the feat are already Hall of Famers, with the other two being Kershaw, and Roger Clemens. Despite the fact that he is more of a threat than any pitcher in the game to throw a no-hitter on any given night, we may underappreciate Scherzer for the same reason, because we expect greatness from him and nothing less. At only 32 years old, Scherzer could have up to seven years left in the tank before he turns 40, which at his averages from the past four seasons, would give him an additional 136 wins, 1841 strikeouts, and 45.5 WAR, to go along with his statistics from the 2017 season. This would put Scherzer at least around 270 wins, 3850 strikeouts, and 85.8 WAR, which puts him well into first-ballot Hall of Fame territory, and would give him a higher career WAR than all-time greats such as Nolan Ryan, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Jim Palmer, and Bob Feller.
In all likelihood, Scherzer won’t keep up his dominant pace until he turns his 40, as that would give him an unbelievable twelve year stretch of 6.5 WAR per season, which would be one of the longest peaks in baseball history. Even if he falls short of the statistical marks above, it might be time that we recognize that every time Scherzer takes the bump, that we may not just be watching one of the best today, but a pitcher that has the potential and the makeup to finish his career as one of the all-time greats.
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- Washington Nationals
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