Julio Jones has never been a major producer of touchdowns.
Among all the wide receivers in the NFL, you can argue that Julio Jones has the best combination of size+speed+power. He’s a 6’3″ monster capable of beating you deep or in a jump ball situation.
Given that, it’s a surprise that Julio Jones hasn’t caught more touchdowns in his career. Consider his totals from the last three seasons:
2014: 15 games, 164 targets, 104 catches, 1593 yards, 6 TDs
2015: 16 games, 204 targets, 136 catches, 1871 yards, 8 TDs
2016: 14 games, 129 targets, 83 catches, 1409 yards, 6 TDs
Considering the massive production, those touchdown numbers are a little lower than you’d expect. In his six seasons in the NFL, Julio Jones has never had more than 10 touchdowns in any one year. He’s averaged 8.1 touchdowns per 16 games. That’s not a bad number by any means, but it pales in comparison to players like Dez Bryant who average 11 per 16 games.
Sometimes, fantasy players chalk up touchdowns to “flukes” that will regress to the mean. I don’t believe that to be the case. There’s a certain natural fluctuation to touchdowns (and any stat), but there are some talents and some offenses that are more prone to WR TDs than others.
Given that, I’d submit two reasons why I’d suspect Julio Jones’ touchdown total may spike this year…
(1) Losing Kyle Shanahan may lead to more pass attempts
In my mind, Kyle Shanahan has always been an underrated offensive coordinator. But 2016 was his master class. In his second full season with Matt Ryan and company, he took the entire offense to another level. Despite double coverage, Julio Jones averaged 17.0 yards per catch. Hell, he averaged 10.9 yards per TARGET. He was the most efficient WR in the league, and Matt Ryan the most efficient QB.
In 2016, the Atlanta Falcons’ passing offense averaged 9.2 yards per attempt, by far the most in the league (next best was Washington at 8.2). Their passing offense had a QB rating of 116.8, the best in the league (next best was New England at 109.5).
The one stat that they weren’t dominating? Passing attempts. Because Matt Ryan and the team was so damn efficient — in the air and in the run game — they didn’t need to rack up much volume. The team passed 537 times, the 26th most in the league. That’s 130 less attempts than Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints got.
Losing Kyle Shanahan may hurt the Falcons’ efficiency, but it consequently may serve to juice Julio Jones’ volume.Presuming the team won’t be as good this season (by simple regression alone), they’ll be flinging it more. I don’t expect Julio to average the stellar per-target numbers, but he’s the one superstar WR in the top 10 that I’d expect to have an increase in workload. He may spike back up to 180 targets again.
(2) Losing Kyle Shanahan may lead to more red zone pass attempts
Kyle Shanahan’s offense is heavily influenced by his father as well as Gary Kubiak; Kubiak was an OC under Mike Shanahan and then gave Kyle his first OC job in Houston.
Their offensive schemes are very effective, utilizing the zone run game to set up an efficient passing offense. However, when it comes to the red zone, they have a natural tendency to shy away from WRs. They’re more prone than other coaches to punch it in with their runners or use the play-action to set up a pass to the wide open fullback or 2nd string TE standing alone in the end zone.
That proclivity dates well past Julio Jones and Atlanta. Kyle Shanahan didn’t have a superstar WR in Washington, but he did back in his first OC job in Houston — Andre Johnson. In fact, Andre Johnson compares similarly to Julio Jones (as much as anyone can) as an explosive 6’3″ WR.
And like Julio Jones, Andre Johnson was never a TD machine either. Consider his totals under Kyle Shanahan:
2008: 16 games, 170 targets, 115 catches, 1575 yards, 8 TDs
2009: 16 games, 170 targets, 101 catches, 1569 yards, 9 TDs
Look familiar? Like Julio Jones, Andre Johnson never topped 10 touchdowns in any one season. He was a target machine and yardage monster, but in his Houston career he only averaged 6.1 touchdowns per 16 games (we’re excluding his years with Indy and Tennessee post prime.)
It’s too early to tell what kind of offense Steve Sarkisian will run in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll keep as much the same as possible. However, there’s already talk from Falcons’ camp about getting Julio Jones more involved in the red zone. I expect them to feed Julio the ball often inside the 10 — even force-feeding him at times. Again, it may not be great for the Falcons’ offense as a whole, but it may help Julio’s fantasy stats.
Takeaway
Kyle Shanahan only coached with the Falcons for two seasons, so we can’t completely credit/blame him for Julio Jones’ (relative) allergy to the end zone. Still, I’m projecting that the change will have an effect on this offense and their usage of Julio going forward.
With increased volume and increased targets in the redzone, Julio Jones may have a MONSTER season, both in terms of yardage and in terms of touchdowns (for the first time.) If you could guarantee me that he’d play 16 games, he’d be my #1 WR.
Of course, Julio Jones’ durability is a factor — he has an injury history and a physical/violent style of play. Given that concern, he’d be the #3 WR on my board and equate to a “boom or bust” pick in terms of top 10 fantasy players. All I’m suggesting here is that the “boom” potential may be even higher than we realize.
