When it comes to fantasy football and even real football, the red zone is where it’s at. This is considered the prime scoring area for an offense. It has such an importance that there is an entire channel dedicated to just showing teams who have reached the red zone. But is getting to the red zone really that much of a scoring advantage over anywhere else on the field?
Not All Red Zone Opportunities Are The Same
Anyone who watches football understands that the closer a team gets to the end zone the better their chances of scoring a touchdown. Not really rocket science, I know. But is there really that big of a difference from getting the ball at the 20, or the 10, or the 5? If so, how much? Let’s take a look.
Running The Ball and Scoring Touchdowns
The success rate of scoring on the ground goes way up the closer a team is to the end zone and pretty much flattens out beyond a certain point. Anytime a running back gets the ball from outside the 8-yard line he is expected to score about 0.5 fantasy points give or take .02 points. This is very surprising and really changes the red zone for a running back. To really hammer this point home, getting a carry from their own 10 is expected to score a running back .05 fantasy points. Getting a carry from their opponents 10 (80 yards closer to the end zone) is expected to score .07 fantasy points. 10 yards from the end zone and only .02 expected fantasy points more. That is pretty much negligible.
The red zone for running backs should really start at the 8. Once a running back gets a carry from here or closer he is expected to score 1 or more fantasy points per touch. This number goes up every yard closer the running back gets to the end zone with the most dramatic increase at the goal line. The chart below shows running back carries from the 8 yard line and closer with expected fantasy points:
| LOS Yard Line | Expected Fantasy Points |
| 1 | 3.25 |
| 2 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 |
| 5 | 1.4 |
| 6 | 1.25 |
| 7 | 1.1 |
| 8 | 1 |
No real surprises here. The closer a running back is to the goal line when he receives a hand-off the more points he’s expected to score. Any carry outside the 8 yard line can basically be expected to score the same amount of fantasy points regardless of where the line of scrimmage is.
Targets and Scoring Touchdowns
What about wide receivers? Receivers tend to do better in the red zone then running backs but still benefit the closer they get. Outside of the 16-yard line receivers will be expected to score .05 fantasy points plus or minus .02 points (assuming non-PPR). Unlike running backs which show a steep increase in expected points, receivers show a more gradual increase. Here’s the table for wide receivers from the 16-yard line and in.
| LOS Yard Line | Expected Fantasy Points |
| 1 | 3 |
| 2 | 2.75 |
| 3 | 2.5 |
| 4 | 2.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 |
| 6 | 1.9 |
| 7 | 1.75 |
| 8 | 1.75 |
| 9 | 1.6 |
| 10 | 1.5 |
| 11 | 1.2 |
| 12 | 1.2 |
| 13 | 1.3 |
| 14 | 1 |
| 15 | 1 |
| 16 | 1 |
As you can see expected fantasy points increase much more gradually and wide receivers are expected to score more points from farther out. However, once they get outside the 16 they are not expected to score more or less than a running back.
How To Use This Data
Since we now know that not all red zone touches are equal we can value players who get the ball closer to the end zone over those who don’t. Even though touches are not linear year to year, we can use this data to identify players who underachieved and overachieved in 2016 and potentially identify draft values and players to avoid. In part 2 I will look at players who underachieved with opportunity who could present great draft day steals.
