Justin Turner will miss 4-6 weeks.
The heart and soul of the Los Angeles Dodgers will be missing for at least the first 4-6 weeks of the regular season, as third baseman and number-three hitter Justin Turner was diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture in his left wrist. Although he won’t need surgery, Turner is still looking at a lengthy rehab process that could knock him out through May. This is a huge blow to the Dodgers, as in the first-year of a three-year, $48 million contract last season, Turner made his first All-Star appearance at age 32, hitting .322/.415/.530 with 21 HR, 71 RBI, and more walks than strikeouts. Additionally, Turner was a postseason hero for the Dodgers, breaking the team’s single-season postseason record for RBIs held by Dusty Baker, and hitting .333/.478/.667 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and a walk-off home run in Game 2 of the NLCS to win NLCS MVP.
While Turner will be missed, the Dodgers do have a plethora of internal options to help offset the loss of Turner. The most likely scenario is that the Dodgers will move Logan Forsythe to third base, while Chase Utley, Austin Barnes, and Enrique Hernandez will split time at second. In Forsythe’s first season in Los Angeles, he struggled at the plate, hitting .224/.351/.327 with 6 HR, 36 RBI, and an 82 OPS+; both offensively and defensively, he will be a steep drop off from Turner at the hot corner. While Chase Utley was slightly better than Forsythe, it wasn’t by much, as he hit .236/.324/.405 with 8 HR, 34 RBI, a 92 OPS+, and at the age of 38 it is a major question as to whether or not his body could withstand an everyday role while still producing at the plate. As much as Dodgers fans love Hernandez for his energy and versatility, he is yet another below average option at second base, having hit .215/.308/.421 with 11 HR, 37 RBI, and a 91 OPS+ last season. Of the group, Austin Barnes is the most likely to produce, coming off of a season where he produced 2.6 WAR, and hit .289/.408/.486 with 8 HR, 38 RBI, and a 137 OPS+ in 102 games. However, by putting Barnes at second base, you would be asking him to play a demanding position, while still likely needing him to spell Yasmani Grandal at catcher every couple of days, which would only hurt Barnes’ value to the team.
Of all of the options above, Forsythe has the most experience at third base with 98 career appearances, which means we can confidently say he will be the everyday third baseman until Turner is healthy. From there, you’re left with Utley and Hernandez in a so-so platoon at second base, or having to find a new backup catcher if Barnes takes over the position. Which is why the Dodgers need to do something radical, even if means moving their everyday center fielder back into the infield.
Coming into 2017, Chris Taylor had never played a big league inning in the outfield, appearing exclusively at second base, shortstop, and third base. When the Dodgers needed a center fielder, Taylor moved into the role and excelled as the Dodgers new leadoff hitter, producing 4.8 WAR, and hitting .288/.354/.496 with 21 HR, 72 RBI, 17 stolen bases, and a 122 OPS+. In total, Taylor has played in 260 games in the MLB, with 33 appearances at second base. To keep Taylor in the lineup, the Dodgers should play to their strengths and move Taylor back to second base, which would allow the team to bring both Utley and Hernandez off the bench, giving them the advantage of versatility.
From there, Yasiel Puig will remain in right field, while left field will be manned by Matt Kemp, who in his second run with the Dodgers has raked this spring, hitting .317/.341/.659 with 4 HR, and 8 RBI. Joc Pederson can then continue to be the team’s fourth outfielder, a role he is best suited for after hitting .212/.331/.407 last season. With all of these moves, the Dodgers would still have a glaring hole in center field, arguably the most important defensive position on the field. Fortunately, they have a young, exciting internal option that can help fill the need: Alex Verdugo.
The Dodgers second-round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, Verdugo, 21, is a consensus top prospect in baseball, ranking in the top 37 prospects in baseball on Baseball America, Major League Baseball, and Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100 Prospects list, the latter of which he ranks 25. In AAA OKC last year, Verdugo thrived, hitting .314/.389/.436 with 6 HR, 62 RBI, and more walks than strikeouts in 117 games. With the big club this spring, Verdugo has looked great in 34 at-bats, hitting .324/.361/.618 with 2 HR, and 6 RBI. Having already dominated AAA pitching before more than holding his own in big league camp, the Dodgers should consider handing Verdugo a starting job out of spring training, as they should know better than most the impact a young player can have on the team having seen Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger take home Rookie of the Year honors the past two seasons. With Verdugo in the lineup, the Dodgers opening day starters would look something like this.
- Chris Taylor, 2B,
- Corey Seager, SS (LHB)
- Cody Bellinger, 1B (LHB)
- Yasiel Puig, RF
- Matt Kemp, LF
- Austin Barnes/Yasmani Grandal
- Alex Verdugo, (LHB)
- Logan Forsythe, 3B (LHB)
- Clayton Kershaw, P
With Verdugo, the Dodgers would also have a strong balance in the lineup between left and right-handed hitters depending on the matchup, especially with the switch-hitting Grandal at catcher. The Dodgers front office may argue that Verdugo could use more seasoning in the minor leagues, likely in an effort to manipulate his service time. But if Dave Roberts wants to have the best combination of players possible, the team has to at least consider giving Verdugo a chance to sink or swim at the big league level.
- TAGS
- Justin Turner
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- MLB
