Which is to say, most of the ways we look at prospects focus on their individual abilities and accomplishments, and only more rarely, and in often very superficial ways, do we put these accomplishments in the context of team’s success. This may even make sense with offense. After all simple boxscore statistics and the advanced metrics drawn from them give us a relatively complete picture of what happens on the offensive side of the ball.
However, on the defensive side of the ball, where we only track defensive rebounding, steals and blocks as events, it hardly makes sense. For most of a defensive possession is spent with players acting in ways which we have as of yet have no great way of tracking. At least no great publicly available way. And if that’s the case, how can we really understand, through statistics, what a player’s defensive potential might be if we don’t in some way relate their play in a more tangible way?
For example, did the player play for a good defensive team or a bad one? And related to this, how did the player’s play impact his team’s failure or success?
This is where looking at DRtg can perhaps be very useful. Though not just a player’s individual DRtg or his team’s DRtg, but the two metrics in relation to each other. The reason being, that a player can put up a perfectly respectable individual DRtg, even if he himself is a mediocre defender, if he plays with good defensive teammates. And the opposite is also true, that a player can be an excellent defender and play on horrible defensive teams and put up a mediocre DRtg. The latter is more rare, but players like Paul George and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are two pretty good examples of this having happened in recent NCAA history. And the metrics do a very good job of allowing us to see it.
So now onto an example to see how it works:
Some of the Best Defenders in the NBA as Seen Through the Lens of their NCAA DRtg and Some Bad Ones Too
1. This list contains many of the best NBA defenders to come from recent drafts. Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, etc . . . It also contains a few terrible ones. Guys like Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas, Isaiah Thomas. The goal is mostly to get use to seeing what the best college players look like by this methodology, which, if it wasn’t clear already compares a player’s Individual Defensive Rating to that of their team.
2. I’ve also put the NCAA Offensive Ratings up here because even if they are not as useful, they do perhaps tell us something about the players’ abilities. For instance, let’s compare two of the better 3&D players on this list, Andre Roberson and Kawhi Leonard, ignoring for half a second that Kawhi is much more than a 3&D player. Both have an ORtg with a plus 0.7 differential from their team’s ORtg. But San Diego State’s Team Rating was 108.8 making Kawhi Leonard’s actual individual ORtg 109.5, far superior to that of Andre Roberson’s score of 102.1, as Roberson played for a semi-miserable Colorado Buffaloes team.
Those differences can matter, sometimes substantially.
3. There are also many ways to game ORtg. Or rather to put up good numbers in college that won’t necessarily translate to the pros. One is playing for a very good team. But there are others, hitting a boatload of catch and shoot three pointers for one. These shots are much easier to generate in college basketball than the pros. (Think of players like J. J. Redick or Doug McDermott. McDermott’s 17% usage in the pros this year is less than half of his 36% usage as a college senior. Which is to say, he’s shooting a lot less and not nearly as valuable.)
We’ll examine these types of effects in a little more depth in a second, though I’m going to spend more time examining defense than offense. As probably the first mistake of draft evaluation is that we have a habit of not considering offense and defense equally in our evaluation of players. When that’s something we almost always should be doing, with the possible exception of Elite Primary Perimeter Initiators. And also with Centers, and even most Power Forwards, where our evaluation should probably be heavily weighted towards defensive ability and potential.
4. Not surprisingly, we see Nerlens Noel, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins near the top of this list. And we see a lot of Bigs. 10 of the first 12 player-seasons on the list belong to players who played PF or C in college. That includes Andre Roberson, Kawhi Leonard, Robert Covington and Jae Crowder, who are all wings now. The two exceptions, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Anderson, the latter of which occasionally played for a UCLA zone that allowed him to do many of the things that college power forwards do, namely rebound and play help defense.
5. This is important to note because the four primary motivators of DRtg are the quality of a player’s team defense, his rebounding and his ability to generate blocks and steals. So Big players should and generally do score better than Wings and Point Guards.
6. Regardless, you’ll notice nearly every player at the top of the list has developed into a plus or significant plus NBA defender by DRPM. The one exception by DRPM being Evan Turner. (Excellent defensive rebounder in colleger, but only a good one in the NBA.) I’d also add CJ McCollum and Greg Monroe to this list as sub-standard NBA defenders despite their peak DRPM. And then I’d like to talk about why more.
7. I’ll just talk about CJ McCollum in this note, and allow you to make inferences about what I think about Greg Monroe. (Specifically check out Khris Middleton’s DRPM numbers from 2014-2015 to 2015-2015 and ask yourself if part of the decline is perhaps the team choosing to go with Monroe, a player who I feel to be a weak defensive player, over Zaza Pachulia, a player who was a fairly strong defensive player for Milwaukee two years ago.) But now back to CJ McCollum and the Portland Trailblazers.
McCollum scored a 0.89 DRPM in 2014-2015, a number which dropped to -0.52 this year. There could be several reasons for that, and part of it is uncertainly the fact that McCollum bares a much larger offensive burden this year, meaning less available effort for D. Another part perhaps that he plays vs. starters more. But I think the biggest change is this, that Portland went from having LaMarcus Aldridge, Wes Matthews, Nic Batum and Robin Lopez to Mason Plumlee, Al-Farouq Aminu, Allen Crabbe and/or Ed Davis, as Plumlee and Davis rarely play together.
So while we can see that Plumlee and Davis, both near 3, both put up significantly better DRPMs than Aldridge and Lopez in 2014-2015, both near 0, the Portland defense itself has cratered. 105.3 points per 100 possessions this year vs 101.4 points per 100 possessions last year. Which is to point to this fact, Portland no longer has defensive Bigs that can make up for their perimeter players’ mistakes. We can see this not only with the deterioration of McCollum’s numbers, but also the deterioration of Lillard’s. Lillard was a near even defender in 2014-2015, only -0.37. This year, he’s nearly 3 points worse: -3.24.
Which is to say, you can’t actually evaluate what DRPM, or even DBPM, is saying, especially for Bigs, without also looking at a team’s DRtg and the ratings of the team’s perimeter players. And also, their nature. It’s a pretty significant fault of the system, even though I’d guess it’s generally the best publicly available number for defense. Or when looking at Portland, we can now tell guess just how good Matthews (pre-Achilles injury), Aldridge, Batum and Lopez were on defense.
8. The best numbers on this list belong to players like Green, Leonard, Noel, Davis and Cousins. Players who played on good to excellent college defenses who vastly exceed them in terms of their own individual production. Additionally, they all played vs. a relatively high level of competition. These kinds of players are almost always good defenders in the NBA. And many of them are excellent.
9. It’s one of the players where a player like Greg Monroe or Mason Plumlee isn’t quite as impressive. They put up differentials around 5 points, but the defenses they played for in college were kind of mediocre both surrendering around 100 points per 100 possessions. It’s not necessarily a black mark for a center, but it’s also not a hugely positive indicator of defensive potential.
10. The same cannot be said for Wings or PG, especially those with a significant level of competition. When a future NBA Wing puts up a +4 or +5 differential, it’s very often a good sign, almost regardless of the quality of their team’s defense. And we can see this not just with Kawhi, but also with Paul George, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Iman Shumpert, Otto Porter, Al-Farouq Aminu, Marcus Smart, Kyle Anderson, Andre Roberson, Robert Covington, Jae Crowder, and Victor Oladipo. The two exceptions are Evan Turner, who has a flag with average level athleticism, and CJ McCollum, who played a fairly minor level of competition. Both also were able to put up such high numbers mainly due to unsustainable defensive rebounding numbers.
11. Being on a very good college defense is often a very good sign, or at least a decent one. We can see that with Aaron Gordon, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, John Wall, Ben McLemore, Gordon Hayward and Iman Shumpert. All have seasons without outstanding differentials in which they played for very excellent college defenses. It may not be necessarily indicative of huge NBA success. But a negative differential in this case doesn’t necessarily mean the same thing that it does for a player who plays for a bad college defense.
12. Looking at John Wall and a player not on this list, Eric Bledsoe, helps point to some of the hazards of this methodology. That is, player’s on loaded teams may score less well since rebounding and the ability to create defensive events play highly into a player’s DRating. But Kentucky didn’t need Eric Bledsoe or even John Wall to rebound defensively. They had Cousins, Patrick Patterson, Darius Miller, Josh Harrelson, Daniel Orton and DeAndre Liggins for that. That’s at least 8 players on that team that made the NBA for at least a cup of coffee. And four who have gone on to significant careers. That can screw with any sort of statistical analysis of individual success, and this method is no different.
Fortunately, those kinds of situations in which such an abundance of NBA talent plays for the same team don’t happen very often.
13. This methodology, as all statistical methodology’s are, is somewhat more questionable for Freshman in general. One, Freshman do improve a lot between their first and second seasons. Or at least, good ones do. Second, there just isn’t that much information in a Freshman season. It’s one of the reasons why the NBA is pushing to raise the Age Limit. If there were two seasons of information, teams probably wouldn’t make nearly as many mistakes in the draft. Though they would still happen.
Avery Bradley is an example of this. Though I will say this. Avery Bradley has become a very good perimeter defender. However, he has not become a top-level impact defender as some of the player’s further up have.
14. Looking at T. J. McConnell’s senior season vs. Iman Shumpert’s sophomore season is interesting. They are similar types of seasons. Both played for excellent defensive teams, Arizona and Georgia Tech respectively, and both put up defensive numbers in the context of the team that suggested that they greatly contributed to their team’s defensive success, without necessarily being the primary driver of it. (Very often there isn’t one primary driver.) But Iman Shumpert’s defensive outcome in the NBA is likely to be far superior to that of McConnell. That is to say, size and athleticism matter.
McConnell has tons of defensive ability, he’s also pretty small and not particularly strong. And it’s even possible his current DRPM is a ceiling of effectiveness. For one of McConnell’s major defensive strengths, his defensive rebounding, is accentuated by the fact that Philadelphia’s Bigs are terrible at securing defensive rebounds. And it’s highly possible that as Philly’s Bigs either improve or are replaced by better ones, this rebounding strength will be slightly diminished in its importance. And in that case, McConnell is going to have to get better and strong on-the-ball. This is certainly possible, but far from a certainty.
15. At the bottom of the list, I’ve included, some players who scored poorly by this metric in college. Isaiah Thomas, Nik Stauskas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tony Snell among them. Tony Snell played for an excellent college defense (93.1 DRtg) without creating impact events, so his season is not quite like the others. In that, this season resembles those of younger players like Ben McLemore or Avery Bradley. Though I would like to point out, Snell’s defensive success in the NBA has come without offense. And the fact that most player’s can’t devote tons of energy to both at the same time should not be lost on us.
As for Nik Stauskas, Tim Hardaway Jr., Isaiah Thomas, these players all played for mediocre or terrible college defenses and managed to put up significantly negative numbers. This is a terrible sign for a college defenders projection to the NBA. It may be possible that the numbers are hiding something and that some of these players will become good. I haven’t really found any.
The closest is Jimmy Butler, who played mostly at PF during his junior year or PF and C as a senior at Marquette. He had a fairly middling score in relationship to a fairly middling defense in both years. A negative 1 to -1.5. But the defense was closer to average than terrible, and its tallest player that played substantial minutes in both seasons was 6’8″. Which should perhaps indicate to us something about the quality of the defenders on that team. (Crowder was there too.) It’s one reason we always have to pay attention to context.
And ask just why a particular player who went onto become a good NBA defender had average at best numbers in college.
16. Because not many of these excellent defenders play for mediocre defensive teams. There are a few who played for teams with a 100+ DRtg. Robert Covington, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the aforementioned Jae Crowder, Paul George. But it’s not the most common case. And generally they have a significant positive effect on the D that shows up quite obviously in the statistics. Jimmy Butler really is mostly an exception. An exception, who also probably has the best ORtg numbers relative to team of any player in the database.
Breaking Down DRtg Further
1. Here I’ve included a number of players one would consider among the best in the league like Draymond Green or Kawhi Leonard, and also some of the top prospects from recent drafts like Andrew Wiggins or D’Angelo Russell. The purpose being not just to look at the Defensive Rating numbers, but to examine them in context with the stats that drive them (D-Rebounding, Steals, Blocks) to see if there’s anything to be gleaned.
2. We can see Jimmy Butler’s Senior season looks very similar to Andrew Wiggins’ Freshman season. Numbers almost identical. One of the main the differences perhaps is that Wiggins had Joel Embiid on his team, a great defender, and Butler was tied for the tallest player who played Starter Minutes on Marquette. And I tend to think that Marquette’s DRtg and thus Butler’s individual DRtg would be quite a lot lower if they did indeed have a player like Embiid playing near 1,000 minutes for them.
3. That’s to say, you can’t necessarily glean anything positive about Butler’s defense from these numbers. At least not a lot. You’d have to watch to see how athletic he was. But it’s also to say, maybe we shouldn’t be so surprised Wiggins hasn’t yet defended well, even if he has all the athletic talent in the world.
4. The DBPM numbers are college numbers just to spare any confusion.
5. I think we can see that most of the best defenders from these drafts really rebounded well in college. The exceptions being Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe.
6. Bledsoe and perhaps Butler had extenuating circumstances. So it’s Middleton I want to talk a little about. Firstly that he played for two above average defenses (95 and 96.8 DRtg his sophomore and junior years respectively). Secondly, that he scores as basically an average defender on these above average defenses despite doing nothing exceptionally, not even rebounding. That is to say, perhaps Middleton has been doing things on defense that aren’t quite caught in the boxscore for quite some time.
7. I’ll tell you another secret about Middleton. He’s one of a group of players that was 6’8″ or above and handled perimeter initiation duties for his team a good deal of the time. It’s a pretty select group of players and given a certain quality, almost all of them end up being reasonably good to great NBA players. A lot of them are on this list: Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Paul George, Gordon Hayward, Andrew Wiggins. Go down to 6’7″, you add Klay Thompson.
Others at 6’7″ or above include: Lebron James (High School), Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Chandler Parsons, Kyle Anderson, Andre Iguodola, Evan Turner, Otto Porter, Jabari Parker and Jeff Green. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and MCW are 6’6″. Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow would arguably qualify.
Some failures or guys that didn’t get a real chance include Royce White, Seth Tuttle (kind of), JJ Avila, JP Tokoto, Royce O’Neale, Emmy Andujar, Reece Gaines, Terrence Williams and Derrick Byars. (Not learning how to shoot or being able to, or not being athletic enough are probably the two things that can kill a player’s career with this skill-set.)
Players in this year’s class above 6’8″ with similar responsibilities: Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and Georges Niang. The first two, not surprisingly, are considered the top two prospects in this draft. The last one is probably not athletic enough to be close to an elite NBA player. But don’t be surprised if there’s real value there on offense as both a screener and an off-ball catch and shoot player, so long as a team is willing to live with a significant negative on defense.
Nigel Hayes also fits this bill this year. Hayes reminds me a little of Jeff Green coming out of Georgetown and is probably in line for that kind of a career, given a chance. But he’s far more athletic than Niang and has far more of a chance to do successful things at the NBA level on defense than many are giving him, considering his length and often intelligent play. Hayes just couldn’t quite pay the bills he was asked to this year. But he won’t have to in the NBA. There might be a little Khris Middleton in his game as well.
Hayes is one of a pretty long list of legit 3&D Wing prospects that is far better than usual. Not the players like Buddy Hield, Grayson Allen, Chris Wilcox, Nik Stauskas or Tim Hardaway Jr. that usually get overdrafted despite their lack of defensive ability, but legit 6’7″ and above guys like Hayes, like Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarrod Uthoff, who have some qualities that make it at least possible they will defend at a plus level in the pros. The latter two can really shoot the ball.
There’s also a bunch of 6’5″ guys like Josh Hart, Jeffrey Morgan, Malcolm Brogdon, Ron Baker to name just four. Most of the best pure 3&D players are bigger, but perhaps the best one in the league right now, Danny Green, is 6’5″ and it wouldn’t be surprising if these players could do the things on offense he is asked to do, if these guys do develop defensively. (Wesley Matthews was also this height.) So they are guys we are going to have to look at even if they don’t have superstar potential. Beyond them, there are even a number of D without the 3 candidates who would be killer NBA players if they ever develop a consistent shot. Jonathon Holton and John Brown of High Point among them.
These players are hard to parse, mainly because a lot of their success has to do with somewhat unpredictable Post-NCAA development, like that of DeMarre Carroll. Though we’ll try in future posts, after we look at the Top 15 or 20 players, ie. those with some type ofargument that they might have a Top 8 NBA Upside, however unlikely.
7 (Cont). Now back to ball-handling responsibilities and tall NCAA Players: 6’6″ or above: DeAndre Bembry, Denzel Valentine, Patrick McCaw, Caris LeVert, Daniel Hamilton, Jaylen Brown, Michael Gbinije, and occasionally Taurean Prince.
It’s something of a strength of this year’s class. A very unusual one for a class to have. Especially when it comes to somewhat tall players with passing skills. Unfortunately, just about all of them, except Valentine and LeVert have some question about their jumper. (McCaw‘s percentages are good. He just hasn’t shot nearly enough of them.) The thing that might give many of these players a chance regardless is that they all, except for Brown and Prince, project as at least average passers at their future pro position and some of them, like Bembry and Valentine project much better than that.
If anyone is worried about their ability to get to the rim, it’s also a question with many of these players. But you can be a Top 15 Offensive player without getting to the rim. Just ask Klay Thompson, who has done it multiple times. And he’s done it also without much passing responsibility beyond routine team ball movement.
8. We notice competition level is indeed important. For example, Faried’s numbers for instance aren’t nearly as meaningful as Cousins or Green in terms of projecting defense. And while Faried does have certain strengths on defense due to his athleticism and rebounding, he does struggle at the point of attack.
9. Paying attention most to major conference success, we notice again that many of the best defensive players (Draymond Green, Kawhi Leonard, DeMarcus Cousins for example) all played for absolutely elite NCAA defenses and were pretty clearly the primary motivators of their team success. We can see this in the fact that their DRtg dwarf those of their team. Green was 7 points better than a defense that only surrendered 91 points per 100 possessions. Leonard was 6 points better than a defense that only surrendered 92. And Cousins 8 points better than another team that only surrendered 92.
A Quick Look at ORtg
1. Here’s the aforementioned Jimmy Butler season. 23.5 points better than a pretty decent offensive team, a Marquette team with a 112 ORtg itself. Just looking at the numbers we may not have realized how truly impactful he was on offense.
2. Another good sign is that Butler was this impactful without shooting 3-point shots. Only 32 of them all year. Which means he had a lots of success around the basket or in the mid-range, or most likely both. That’s a combination that points to a lot of upside, especially when accompanied by decent passing and very low turnovers. Which is to say, Butler has the kind of profile that wouldn’t necessarily make him a Top 5-8 pick in the draft. But it’s the kind of profile which one should consider very strongly in the late lottery, with size for his position, obvious athleticism, dribbling and penetration ability, the toughness to play above his size, good ball protection skills and projectable shooting ability.
No one prospect quite matches all these skills this year, unless you consider a point guard like Gary Payton II, mainly because Butler’s athleticism is really upper level. But DeAndre Bembry is a much better passer and rebounder than Butler was at the same age and offers many of them. Gary Clark is, I’d guess, a better athlete than Bembry and also a better rebounder and passer than Butler. He doesn’t quite yet have the perimeter skill-set he needs. (He’ll need to become both a better dribbler and jump shooter for sure, but there’s a lot of promise on the defensive side of the ball, and he’s tough enough that he may even be able to stick at PF. Just watch the Kentucky game is Freshman Year if you want to see his energy and toughness.)
3. I’ve included a lot of the advanced statistics here, because ORtg is related to them. In fact, I think ORtg is a pretty decent way to put them into context. Especially when we can see with a player like Paul George, who has a good but not fantastic ORtg, that it would likely be higher if he played for a better team. (107.6, 8.5 point better per 100 possessions.)
4. However, this type of comparison, comparing the player’s individual ORtg to their team ORtg, is not always as useful on offense as it is on D. They aren’t present here, but it’ll earmark a lot of players who are just catch-and-shoot three-point shooters as the primary drivers of their college team’s offensive efficiency. Which they may be to some extent, but these types of players also have their shots created by other players and are just a lot less valuable in the pros than they are in college.
5. Furthermore, we see players like John Wall and Kawhi Leonard near the bottom of this list. Even though they are now two of the better offensive players. So one thing to note, both Wall and Leonard have very healthy plus 110 ORtgs in college, or thereabouts. These aren’t elite, but they are good. So even if they are nearly identical to those of their team, that means they were a large part of their team’s success. That’s a good thing.
It’s especially a good thing when you realize how athletic these players are, how skilled they are for their size, and that their college success came without three-point success, which mean’s there is upside there. In Wall’s case, it may be untapped, but if Wall learns how to shoot in the next 3-5 years, he’s almost certainly going to end up a Top 8 player.
6. Primary initiators have the highest upside and probably the highest floor on offense. This is a common theme, but it’s still true. The best offensive players on this list, Damian Lillard and Kawhi Leonard for example, initiate from somewhere on the court. Whereas guys like Klay Thompson have a cap on their offensive abilities put their by their lack of driving skills. Still a great offensive player, but one that needs elite defense to be an elite player. And he’s a solid defender, but not an outstanding one.
7. Eric Bledsoe is perhaps the most difficult player to parse of the last 10-15 years. Being on a team as deep as his makes it nearly impossible to predict his success based on statistics of any kind. Devin Booker is not a similar case, since it was pretty apparent that he wasn’t going to have the body or athleticism to defend at a plus level. His two main strengths, that he could shoot and that he really understood how to play the game in terms of not wasting possessions and understanding timing and space, were also much more on display. Bledsoe was really athletic, he shot well, he defended decently, he could dribble, he passed okay, but he didn’t do anything per se at an elite level in college. His success also happened to come on his second pro team, which makes it less valuable to the team that draft him. Though he did get the Clippers J. J. Redick in return.
8. I don’t know if you noticed it yet, but a lot of these players are much better than the average player on their team in terms of both offensive and defensive success. That is, they have balance on both sides of the ball. (You could make the same cases for Kawhi Leonard and John Wall despite their numbers not speaking as obviously to this point.) Players with this kind of balanced success very often are NBA players of some success, and that holds especially true of players who played at a high major level.
A Table Of Players With Offensive and Defensive Balance, Past and Present as seen through the lenses of ORtg and DRtg
1. I’ve highlighted some of the better players from this year’s draft, guys like Gary Payton II and Brice Johnson. But there’s a decent number of them this year with at least one-season with +4 differentials on both offense and defense. Daniel Ochefu, a defensive center with excellent passing ability. Jeremy Morgan, a potential 3&D prospect who likely won’t enter the draft. Pascal Siakam, who probably should be a legit 1st round prospect from a mid-major school. I don’t know anything about Dane Pineau. He’s had a lot of success but his sample sizes in terms of scoring are very low as he doesn’t shoot much. So maybe take it with a grain of salt. Sabonis is a legit Offense and Rebounding big. Don’t expect much help defense though. James Webb III had massive problems with his 3-Pt shot this year, but has legit defensive skills, could maybe play both SF and PF and if he gets his jumper back has considerable upside as a 3&D combo forward. Ben Simmons is Ben Simmons and an even bigger rarity, a freshman on this list. Jameel Warney is maybe too small to be an NBA PF, but he should get a legit chance with his strength, rebounding, interior scoring and passing ability. Fouse unfortunately can’t shoot, but he has some potential as a defensive player. And guys like Matt Barnes do learn how to shoot in the NBA. It does happen. John Brown I don’t know much about, but he has electric athleticism at 6’8″ which can be seen on the highlight videos.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRQ8Vam9YIo&w=560&h=315]
Unfortunately, he’s probably too small to be a PF and does not have a wing’s skill-set based on the numbers. He’s also had mixed success vs. major competition, but that might be because major teams don’t really have to focus on his teammates. Impossible to say without watching the games:
Thomas Walkup is an awesome basketball player who is unfortunately 6’4″ rather than 6’7″ or 6’8″. Best sense of timing and space in the entire draft class. Maybe the best anticipation. Somehow always there to create events despite seeming to move relatively slow. He lacks upside, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he carves out an NBA career. Wouldn’t worry much about his jump shot. It’ll come when he’s no longer taking absolutely everything off-the-dribble. His form is fine, and Walkup definitely won’t be an On-Ball guy in the pros, wherever he ends up. He will likely do a number of things that contribute to winning, whether in Europe or the NBA.
There’s also Khadeem Lattin. I don’t know if anyone noticed, but Oklahoma absolutely couldn’t guard anyone once he got into foul trouble. They probably lose to Villanova regardless. But Lattin was as important to that team’s success in many games as Buddy Hield. He covers a ton of ground on the college court and even at 6’9″ is a total beast defensively. He might be a little small to be an NBA center, which might make him a tweener, but he’s certainly got the athleticism to play PF. I doubt he goes.
Lastly, Chris Boucher. Boucher is definitely a little skinny and does not have NBA ball movement ability right now. What he does have is live athleticism, rebounding ability, length, competitiveness, and plus potential to shoot from distance for a big player. He wouldn’t be a bad upside gamble in the middle of the draft or later to see if he can add some bulk and continue improving. Boucher was by far Oregon’s best overall player this year when considering offensive and defensive impact. And being a big gives Boucher the potential for a defensive impact many others don’t have. And as we’ve seen from Marvin Williams and Channing Frye, it’s not difficult for a Big with a shooting skill to be a +2 or +3, or even +4 offensive player, with little else going for them. It’s potentially a very valuable skill. That being said, the potential flags, in his passing ability and his frame’s skinniness, are probably too large to consider him super early. (Also, no one else is considering him super early. Since everyone is more concerned with a prospect’s floor than with his ceiling.)
2. There are other guys from this class with a measure of balance to their profiles, Chinanu Onuaku, Kris Dunn (whose profile is basically identical to Marcus Smart’s, albeit with better passing, shooting numbers and worse turnovers), Wade Baldwin, DeAndre Bembry (sophomore year), Gary Clark (Freshman and Sophomore year), Robert Carter Jr. for instance could all make arguments towards having such balance in a season or two. And they are not the only ones. Uthoff, Dorian Finney-Smith et al. There’s a lot of players with some two-way potential in this class. They just aren’t the guys being talked about at the top of the draft. Either because of age or because of complete and utter indifference to what actually tends to bring significant positive value at the NBA level.
3. This +4 point threshold for balance is also by no means an end-all, be-all. Draymond Green didn’t make it as a senior, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and John Wall didn’t make it at all. But the players who do make it from high major conferences: Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green (as a junior), Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Paul George, Otto Porter, CJ McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, Victor Oladipo, Gorgui Dieng, Derrick Favors and Noah Vonleh, very often do become players of some NBA significance. And even non-major players like Robert Covington and Kenneth Faried are legit NBA guys. So, it’s perhaps a fairly good indicator of a player’s floor being relatively high.
4. Many of the players who bare this marker are drafted highly, as Ben Simmons will be. But perhaps it is a decent marker to look for in those not rated so highly, especially those with some other potentially plus skills. After Simmons, Gary Payton II and Brice Johnson stand out the most from this list. And I think both are significantly underrated. But Siakam and Webb III perhaps have similar arguments to make. And each player’s potential to guard the PF on offense gives them a decent amount of defensive upside to accompany whatever offensive skills they have. (Siakam will need a lot of late development on offense and some on defense, but the places he needs development, with his shooting stroke on offense or with consistently staying on his toes on D, are among the places most likely for a player to fix and since he is late to the game of basketball, there might be more development left than is typical of player’s his age. Webb III will need to fix his jump shot.)
Would This DRtg Method Work For Steph Curry?
This is perhaps the most important question right now. Would this way of looking at things help us identify Steph Curry as better than the 7th overall pick? I have no idea. The numbers simple aren’t publicly available, but there are indicators it may have.
For one, I have no doubt about the offense. Curry’s college ORtg would probably be one of the best on record, for almost any season. The question is defense but Curry rebounded well for his position (4.5 per game and I doubt many were on offense), stole the ball (2.0 and 2.5 per game his sophomore year respectively), played for teams which generally played fast, and also were solid on defense. His sophomore year team was 49th in points per game in the entire NCAA. His freshman and junior year teams were in the low 100s, but again they played fast.
These are some indicators that he likely would have had success by this method. And as a Primary On-Ball Initiator with no doubt about it Off-the-Dribble ability, I think you’d have to rate him above Rubio, Flynn (where it shouldn’t have been a question), Tyreke Evans and Thabeet. That would place Curry no less than 3rd, perhaps behind Griffin and Harden.
The key is to privilege On-Ball skills above everything, specifically if there are any indicators at all that the player’s defense might be projectable. And specifically, a balanced mix of skills. On-ball dribbling, passing and shooting. And only three players in this class had this mix going into the draft. Harden, Curry and Lawson. And Lawson was tiny for an NBA player. Others who developed a somewhat balanced offensive skillset later on like Jeff Teague and Jrue Holiday ended up the best players from this class.
So while I don’t know if this would work for Curry, my guess is that it would. It would have certainly worked for both Harden and Griffin. I have little doubt about that. And I have to admit, just looking at the three player’s college careers, there’s a good chance I still would have ended up picking Curry third of the three. Since I really liked Harden as a player back then (and thought he would defend better than he has), and the same goes for Griffin.
This Year’s PG and Combo Guards Compared to Past PG and Wings As Seen Through the Lens of DRtg
1. To start with, many of this year’s point guards are almost certainly non-defenders or at least guys who probably can’t exert max effort on both offense and defense. These players: Kay Felder, Demetrius Jackson, Monte Morris, Anthony Barber, Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Taylor, and Shake Milton. Nic Moore and Stefan Moody would also qualify as such defenders if I included them. Of these, perhaps Felder can be the next Isaiah Thomas or Jackson the next Jameer Nelson. But I wouldn’t bet on either with a high draft pick.
2. Van Vleet rates as an excellent defender, but is probably too small to not be a real athlete.
3. Dejounte Murray doesn’t rate currently as a good defender, but is big enough and athletic enough that he might get significantly better. I’ll consider him in the future with the four PG who grade as potential pluses, Gary Payton II, Kris Dunn, Wade Baldwin and Josh Adams. The other PG I’m mostly not going to talk about from here on out, as I see them having little possibility to give a true star impact. Though if I did have to pick among them it would be Felder, Jackson, Morris and Van Vleet I’d be most interested in.
Barber is a curiosity to me, since he’s so fast and so quick that it’s likely that no one will be able to stay in front of him at the NBA level. He also has some legit pull-up ability. Unfortunately, somehow despite his height and athleticism, he’s one of the worst defenders in all of college basketball and gets beat semi-regularly at the point of attack without doing much else to make up for it. He’s got gifts that might be worth taking a chance on. But players like him, who are a mixed bag three years into college, rarely become all that special.
4. Gary Payton II and Kris Dunn are two of this draft’s best chances for elite defensive production. That includes any position. The closest comparables to these players across any number of defensive categories are guys who became good to elite defenders at the NBA level. From Oladipo to Marcus Smart to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. These two also have athleticism and bodies to match, both with decent length for the position and excellent height. It would not surprise me if either or both end up being able to guard shooting guards as well.
If you watch the second half of the VCU game vs. Oregon State from a couple of weeks ago, you will see a virtuoso defensive performance from Payton II. He is tasked with matching up with Melvin Johnson, one of the best scorers in all of college basketball, and he not only completely stifles Johnson On-Ball, but manages to play help defense as well, creating three or four off ball steal opportunities, challenging a shot or two by other players and rebounding out of position. These kinds of skills are almost certainly going to translate to the NBA level, and if Payton II does learn how to shoot at even 35% from three off the catch, you are talking about a player with potential Top 10 potential as he can run, screen and roll and almost never makes a bad decision. Payton II also has a pretty high floor because of this defensive ability, and it’s crazy that a team could potentially draft him in the middle of the 2nd round. Everything about Payton II screams NBA player. Some of his profile whispers in very light tones, “Potential Superstar.” The latter outcome may be unlikely, but it’s on the Table for him in ways that it’s not for all but one or at most two handfuls of players from this draft.
5. Baldwin and Josh Adams both have mix-bag defensive profiles and Baldwin definitely has mixed bag results when watching him. When Baldwin puts the effort in and is fully engaged, he’s maybe only a half notch down from Payton II or Dunn, but he’s not always fully engaged. Adams is a late rising senior, extremely athletic, with one of the best On-Ball scoring seasons in recent NCAA history. He’s a true boom or bust prospect. (Most supposed boom or bust prospects actually have high floors because they almost certainly project to play defense.) However, when you are as athletic as Adams and the closest comparable for your senior season is probably Damian Lillard in terms of On-Ball success form three, driving ability and passing ability with some defensive rebounding thrown in, that boom-potential has to be taken seriously.
I’m not saying Adams is as good a prospect as Lillard was. Lillard did it for multiple years, Adams only for one. And Adams is a little right-hand dominant, meaning it’s potential NBA defenses will be able to greatly mitigate his success just by forcing him left. But again, there’s an avenue for stardom on the table for Adams that just doesn’t exist for many other players, however unlikely. Again, we are looking for players with some chance to be one of the top 2 or 3 players from this class. The fourth or fifth best players from a draft class, except in rare cases, just aren’t all that impactful. And while I like this draft’s depth a lot, in terms of seeing a potential for lots of players to have lengthy NBA careers, if they are given a chance, this isn’t likely the type of class, like 2003, 2008 or 2009, in which there’s going to be an unusual number of Top 5 and Top 10 players to emerge from it. Even in those years, these players are almost always On-Ball Initiators like Lebron, Wade, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and James Harden. Guys who can get to the rim and pass and very often shoot, if not from the three, reliably from the mid-range. All of them score at multiple levels of the offense. Most of them excel (or used to excel) at getting to the free throw line as well.
6. I included Denzel Valentine as well, since while he’ll almost certainly be a Two or Three at the NBA level, there is some chance he’ll run point on offense. The defensive positions are relatively meaningless. A smart team will play Valentine on whichever wing has less on-ball talent, as very few teams play multiple wings who are threats to drive. Even with a team like Golden State, with Thompson and Barnes, or a team like Cleveland, with J. R. Smith, if you can bait them into running offense through these players, then they aren’t going to be running offense through Curry and Lebron respectively. And that’s a total win.
It’ll also give Valentine a chance to play to his strengths which are his length, his intelligence, his play recognition, his ability to stay connected to his offensive player while tracking the ball and defensive rebounding. As Khris Middleton has shown us, these skills can bring plus value at the NBA level, sometimes significantly so.
Valentine reminds me a little bit of Andre Miller but with a three-point skill and the ability to guard wings at the NBA level. But also a little bit like Evan Turner, again with better shooting ability, but also with better passing ability, decision-making and handle. Or a mix of the two. Any of these outcomes would be a significant NBA player. Evan Turner right now is a very significant contributor on one of the best teams in the East.
NCAA Wings, Seen Through the Lens of ORtg and DRtg
1. These are our wings arranged by the difference between their DRtg and that of their teams. Since it’s a rough proxy for defensive ability. And I’ve included some Combo Forward type prospects. Ben Simmons, James Webb III, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jarrod Uthoff, Gary Clark and Mark Tollefson. If I had to guess, I’d say Simmons and Webb III are going to be able to stick at PF, whereas Finney-Smith, Uthoff, Clark and Tollefson are going to have to find success at a Wing position. Tollefson is the worst prospect of the bunch, like a poor man’s Robert Covington, though with much more vertical leaping ability. His lack of defensive success doesn’t really make that much sense when looking at his athleticism.
2. We see a number of average at best defenders at this position: Mark Tollefson, Caris LeVert, AJ English, Buddy Hield, Grayson Allen, Isaiah Briscoe, Malik Beasley, Brennan Greene, Jeff Roberson, Austin Fisher-Davis, Jamal Murray, Allonzo Trier, Malik Newman. And average at best means just that. The likely outcome for most of these problems is probably much worse. Even in a best case-scenario, you’re talking about guys who don’t hurt your team defense if protected by excellent defensive Bigs.
So I’m not going to discuss these players further. Buddy Hield, Caris LeVert, Jamal Murray and Grayson Allen very well might become plus NBA players. I see at best the narrowest of narrow avenues towards what I would call stardom for any of them.
3. As a corollary, being 6’4″ or 6’5″ at this position and neither being super athletic or having excellent instincts is a bad look on defense at this position, even in college.
4. As another corollary, look at how terrible the defenders surrounding Wade Baldwin are. Roberson, Fisher-Davis, Riley LaChance have some of the worst defensive outcomes in their Freshman and Sophomore seasons by any method, and that includes the eye test. Fisher-Davis and LaChance might be two of the worst college defenders I’ve ever seen. And this is a theme that continues when we look at Damian Jones, who is the opposite of an impact defender at PF or C.
5. Malcolm Brogdon’s defense is fine but probably a tad overrated. From looking at Virginia’s last four seasons, it becomes pretty apparent that Darion Atkins was the truly special defender on those great Virginia teams, which is the reason for the drop off this year, from a great defensive team to merely a good one. (He’s also been a special defender in the NBADL. Desperately needs a jumper though.) Brogdon is a solid on-ball defender, and his numbers mirror a number of players who have become slight positives on D, while not being true impact players.
6. One of the reason Hield’s numbers, even his junior season are somewhat suspect is because of his above average rebounding numbers. A player with plus rebounding numbers for his position should almost always have a similar DRtg to that of their team. You can look at players like Evan Turner, CJ McCollum, or even Denzel Valentine to see this. However, Hield is always significantly worse. And it’s hard to attribute Oklahoma’s great defensive play in Hield’s junior year to him. It was much more likely the arrival of Khadeem Lattin and the play of Tyshawn Thomas, who graduated, that was pushing that defenses success.
7. D without the Three. There’s a lot of these players who will potentially enter this year’s draft. Daniel Hamilton, Dedric Lawson, Jordan Fouse, John Brown, Gary Clark, Jonathon Holton, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Derrick Jones, Jacob Evans, Jae’Sean Tate et al. If any of them learn to shoot consistently watch out. I like Gary Clark, Jae’Sean Tate and the Freshman the best of this group. You’ll notice a lot of these guys spent some or all of their time at college PF. I don’t think most of them enter the draft and stick unless they have to do so.
8. Jaylen Brown would be this type of player, except you’d have to add that he’s a total chucker as well. There is massive potential with Brown. There’s very little likelihood of realization. His offensive profile is at best that of a poor man’s poor man’s poor man’s DeMar DeRozan. The defensive profile is decent, where he probably projects as better defender than DeRozan if he wants to be.
9. Troy Williams can’t dribble and I don’t wholly trust his shooting improvement. His athleticism gives considerable potential if he does learn to shoot, but he’s just not a very good offensive player right now.
10. Strong Three and D candidates. Again, this class has a plethora: Brandon Ingram is the headliner, and he could become more than just a 3&D guy. You also have Patrick McCaw, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jarrod Uthoff, Nigel Hayes, Tyler Lydon, Dyshawn Pierre, Tyler Lydon, Taurean Prince and Keita Bates-Diop, who had a down sophomore year after a great freshman one in spot minutes, as guys 6’7″ or taller who fit the description. James Webb III also fits this description, though he has much more value if he can stay at PF.
These are all Stay-In-Your-Lane offensive players at the next level. But if they do develop as shooters, there is a good chance for a lot of these players to add some defensive value as well.
11. Though Taurean Prince and Nigel Hayes have both been disappointing after stellar 2014-2015 campaigns, we should remember the case of Khris Middleton. Prospects do recover from disappointing years, sometimes in spectacular fashion.
12. For shorter Three and D candidates: Jeremy Morgan, Josh Hart, Ron Baker, Charles Cooke, Malcolm Brogdon and possibly Thomas Walkup. Jeremy Morgan looks pretty similar as a player to Danny Green, which is not to say he’s as good. Morgan is playing college basketball. And you have to like how Hart plays, even if he doesn’t have super high upside.
13. After Simmons and Ingram, I think Bembry and Valentine are the class of these players. Not including freshman like Ingram or Miles Bridges, Bembry probably projects as the best defender of all the True-Wing candidates. (ie. That’s not including the converted college PF that often end up the best NBA defenders at the wing positions.) Bembry also has considerable offensive skills and success in terms of dribbling, passing and scoring inside the arc. He doesn’t yet shoot consistently, which is why there are real questions about Bembry’s eventual success, but as we saw earlier with a player like Leonard, being so successful without shooting threes shows that Bembry actually carries considerable offensive upside many other players do not.
14. Valentine’s upside, as stated before, comes from his considerable On-Ball Skill, his unique passing ability for his height, his intelligence and the very real chance that he’ll be a very good Off-Ball defender.
15. Chriss is a special case. He has legit NBA athleticism and a promising shot. He also doesn’t understand how to play basketball, isn’t yet actually even a good college defender despite his gaudy block+steal numbers, and has basically zero useful small forward skills besides shooting and dunking. But he doesn’t remotely rebound like a power forward. Which could put Chriss a little bit at an impasse moving into the future.
16. If Valentine and Bembry’s skill and athleticism were combined, you’d probably be speaking of the number 2 overall candidate in the draft. As it is, both are probably a couple of levels below. Bembry’s issue is that he probably doesn’t project as an On-the-Ball player moving forward and he also projects as a solid plus on defense, but not an Iguodola or Kawhi type impact defender, which he’d probably have to be in order to be a super star.
Lastly, The Bigs by DRtg
1. This list includes some players that it’s pretty hard to project right now. Diallo doesn’t know what he’s doing on offense. He’s also probably too small to be a center at the NBA level, which greatly hurts him. Happ, is a great college player, with an NBA center’s game as well, and at only 6’8″, that’s not going to cut it. And there are others, if I don’t mention a player, hopefully it’s because they fit into this category.
2. You can see immediately. The standards for Bigs are much higher than those for Smalls. That’s because rebounding and blocked shots are such big components of DRtg. If a big scores below zero, that’s generally a bad sign. And even a positive differential on defense might not be a good sign.
3. There are several players with a good chance to be plus or significant plus defenders at the PF or C position. Ben Simmons, Chinanu Onuaku, Brice Johnson, Deyonta Davis, Daniel Ochefu, Pascal Siakam, Robert Carter Jr., Chris Boucher, James Webb III, AJ Hammons, Deyonta Davis and Stephen Zimmerman would be my best guesses. You could maybe add Jakob Poeltl to that group as well, but his play versus guys approaching his size has me questioning his future impact a little bit. (Boucher as spoken about before will really need to add weight to be effective at the next level.)
4. You’d do a decent job selecting a group of first round Bigs if you stuck to that group. I also like Ivan Rabb, though have no idea why he wasn’t able to contest more shots.
5. You can see some really dominant two-way college seasons here: Not just Ben Simmons Freshman season, but Brice Johnson’s senior year, Pascal Siakam’s sophomore year, Jameel Warney’s junior and senior seasons, Daniel Ochefu’s senior season, Chris Boucher’s year this year, James Webb III’s sophomore year.
6. I don’t really understand Damian Jones as a pro prospect. What is so appealing about a big who doesn’t really defend or play offense?
7. Skal was horrible this year. And he’s not nearly as athletic as a guy like DeAndre Jordan.
8. Henry Ellenson is an Offense and Rebounding Big. Domantas Sabonis too. Best case scenario for either is probably Kevin Love. And neither is as good as Love was at UCLA. (Also, I think the defensive metrics significantly overrate Love as a player due to reasons discussed earlier in this piece when talking about the Portland Trailblazers.)
9. Diamond Stone and Thomas Bryant are two other offense and rebounding Bigs I’d probably take a clean pass on.
10. I’d like to make some comparisons for you. The first. Pascal Siakam’s sophomore year to Paul Millsap’s. (Both played in the same conference. Though Siakam is older, he is also late to basketball, which often means his aging curve is likely to be steeper than many player’s of a similar age. Via Sports-Reference.com:
Nearly identical numbers across the board. Basically 20 points, 12 boards, 1 assist (give or take), 1 steal and 2 blocks per game. The difference Millsap played 2 minutes more per game (36.6 to 34.6) while Siakam was older and a better passer at the same experience level. What I’m trying to say is that I’m pretty sure Siakam is an NBA player and one with a reasonably high floor. The athleticism and the fact that the holes in his game are fixable also gives him real upside. He’s very underrated right now, along with Ochefu and Onuaku.
If you arrange by blocks, and sort for players with a sophomore year of 11 rebounds per game, 1 assist per game, 1 steal per game and 1.8 blocks, the first four players are Siakam, Andre Roberson, Kenneth Faried and Paul Millsap. That should tell us something else. And if we look for all years, we add some other NBA guys like Emeka Okafor, Kurt Thomas, Kevin Durant, Jason Thompson and Alan Williams. (The fact that Kevin Durant is on such a list of basically all Power Players, and as a Freshman should indicate something about how special he was in college.)
11. The second comparison: I wanted to compare Brice Johnson to Shawn Marion, but the search functions on Sports-Reference make it near impossible, as you can only search college players per game but not per minute. A surprising player, albeit one that makes some sense, did come up as a comparison, Elton Brand:
Indeed, Brice Johnson’s strengths seem like an amalgam of past college players: Marion, Millsap, Faried, maybe even Brand when considering Johnson’s efficiency within 15 feet. Indeed, the best of these players all had that kind of game in college. His ultimate NBA success will probably rest a little bit on if he can develop a shot out to three-point range, which could make him a real impact player offensively. And if he consistently learns how to guard on the perimeter without making mistakes. He has real +4 Upside on both sides of the ball. And will almost certainly be a plus player of some kind in the NBA, even if his floor is far beneath his upside projection.
In Conclusion
Hopefully we’ve learned how looking at DRtg can better inform our views of prospects, at least to some degree. And it’s perhaps the best proxy we have to look at defense from a statistical perspective, especially when looking at the individual player’s rating in concert with that of their team. Since I’m trying to value defensive potential equally with that of offensive potential, DRtg is definitely a factor in the more selective group of prospects I’ll be considering moving forward.
Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Wade Baldwin, Gary Payton II, Kris Dunn, Brice Johnson, Chinanu Onuaku, Deyonta Davis, DeAndre Bembry, Denzel Valentine, Robert Carter Jr., Jakob Poeltl, Josh Adams, Pascal Siakam, these are the 14 prospects I’m going to spend the most attention on in the future and is probably as good a group as any to consider an early Top 14, at least as far as NCAA prospects go. (I know next to nothing about the European prospects.)
I’ll also perhaps add to this group Dejounte Murray, Patrick McCaw, Gary Clark Jr., Jaylen Brown, Daniel Ochefu, James Webb III, A. J. Hammons, Chris Boucher, Stephen Zimmerman, Marquese Chriss and Ivan Rabb. To make it 25 or so total players.
And at some point we’ll have to consider the extensive 3&D group from this draft, which numbers somewhere between 10 and 20 players, not even including guys like Buddy Hield or Jamal Murray, who may indeed have better chances to become solid offensive players than many of the players with some actual Two-Way Potential. But I’ll pass on them, just as I will likely NBA guys like Henry Ellenson and Domantas Sabonis, since a Two-Way Success is worth so much more than a One-Way Shooter or a B & O Railroad Big Man. (Boards, Offense and no fucking way you’re getting to Atlantic City.)
It’s also highly possible several from the 3&D group will end up rating in fairly highly when all is said and done. (I will refrain from grading Bridges, Jones, Anunoby and other Freshman who probably aren’t going to leave. It’s next to impossible to rate these players offensive abilities anyway, since we have hardly any information about them.)
