Though I don’t just want to look at the potential Bigs from this draft. In order to see if there are any trends we can spot, I want to look at the Bigs from this 2016 along with some of the best Bigs from past drafts as well as some of the biggest disappointments. Guys like Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Chris Webber, Draymond Green, Paul Millsap, Anthony Mason and guys like Michael Beasley and Thomas Robinson. The list goes on and is mostly drawn from Top 50 career BPM guys at the power forward position.
I chose the Power Forward for this comparison primarily because there aren’t a lot of centers in this class: Firstly, Chinanu Onuaku, who I think is far away the best one. Then Deyonta Davis, who grades much better if you think he can handle the Center position than at Power Forward. If he’s a Power Forward, there’s probably far less upside. Stephen Zimmerman, a one-way defensive center whose young enough his offensive game could still grow. Also, Jakob Poeltl, who I’d probably been over-rating earlier due to assumptions about his defensive potential that probably aren’t true, and AJ Hammons, probably one of the better more underrated players in this draft by everyone including me. Lastly, there’s Daniel Ochefu, a low ceiling, high floor big who should at least provide positive value off the bench for a number of years, and then guys like Amida Brimah, who I didn’t bother rating, since he’s very likely to be a significant negative on offense. Guys like Diamond Stone and Thomas Bryant have some offensive upside but as non-defensive centers figure to have relatively low total upside at the position.
There are far more potentially interesting Power Forward types, starting with the best player in this draft class. It should go without saying that’s Ben Simmons, who looks on paper something like a cross between Karl Malone and Draymond Green but has more ability to initiate from the perimeter than either. Then there’s Brice Johnson, who looks very much like a poor man’s Shawn Marion. There’s James Webb III and Chris Boucher, the two players with probably the best chance of a positive shooting and defensive outcome. There’s Robert Carter Jr., profiles something like a rich man’s Terrence Jones with ability to move feet, rebound defensively + a projectable offensive game including a jumper and rare dribbling/passing skills for a PF. Though he’s been weak at the point of attack on D.
There’s some interesting Freshman: Marquese Chriss, this draft’s huge athletic project, Ivan Rabb, a guy who clearly has a future in the league and potentially a higher ceiling than the numbers would indicate, and Henry Ellenson, a poor man’s Kevin Love in just about every way. There’s Pascal Siakam, an over-aged sophomore with significant athleticism and some sneaky upside. On top of that, there are some others I like who could potentially have NBA careers but didn’t include. Guys such as Jameel Warney, who has boarded on pretty much anyone and has a pretty good understanding of both the game and who he is as a player.
Another player who I included on defense and who I’d almost certainly grade in the Top-10 if he declared would be OG Anunoby. More of a combo forward with power forward skills on offense and the potential to possibly guard Two through Four at a plus level on D. He hasn’t declared, and I wouldn’t expect him to stay in the draft. However, he seems like the rare Non-Center that grades as a potential +4 or +5 point defender, if everything goes right. He’s the player everyone is actually talking about when they talk about Marquese Chriss. All the superlatives they give Chriss actually probably better suit Anunoby, including the potential to play multiple positions at the next level.
Unfortunately, if we’re making a historical comparison that precludes us from using Per 100 or Advanced Statistics, but the per 40 minute trends we’ll see are close enough for horse shoes and hand grenades. I haven’t included some of the all-time great centers. Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, David Robinson, Tim Duncan and Patrick Ewing, all missing. If you’re wondering, they either grade out like Anthony Davis (Olajuwon, Shaq), like Karl-Anthony Towns (Duncan), like Joel Embiid (Ewing) or even more completely off the chart than Shawn Marion in the case of David Robinson. (15 rebounds, 2 steals, 7 blocks per 40 as a junior).
Lastly, one thing to always remember is that my rankings are in flux, besides Ben Simmons and probably Brandon Ingram. I’m learning things too. I’m making guesses on probabilities and potential, based on what I’ve seen and based on what the numbers say. For players like Ben Simmons, that’s relatively easy. But for players like say, everyone else, it gets a lot more difficult. Since, you very quickly move into an area where there just isn’t that much separating prospects.
Let us remember my point isn’t to identify the 6th or 12th best Big prospect from this draft class. Rather, it’s to identify those Bigs which have qualities that might allow them to one day produce at a Top 10 level in the league, even if that outcome is unlikely.
Now let’s begin.
Bigs Comparison Arranged By Assists Per 40
1. The first thing we see, Ben Simmons is amazing. He leads the entire list of player-seasons in Assists per 40. That is, except for Draymond Green’s junior season, which he tied. That means he was better than Webber, Mason, Barkley, Malone, Millsap, etc . . . You’ll notice, some excellent passers from a Big position. Oh, and he did it only as a Freshman.
(If you’re wondering, I think Draymond Green would have been very slightly better in his junior season Pace Adjusted.)
2. A-Rate is a makeshift metric which sees Assists in light of Field Goal Attempts, Free Throw Attempts, and Turnovers. It’s basically trying to give a gist of how often a player is likely to help a teammate score and put into context of how many possessions they use themselves. In addition, I tried to put it on a similar scale as a previous ratio I used: Assist Percentage:Usage Percentage. Don’t make too much of it going down to three decimal places. There are surely rounding errors for starters. Besides that, it’s not meant to give exact answers. What it is meant to do is ballpark how good a passer a player is.
Approaching or above 1 is very good. Way below 1, not so much.
3. You’ll see, it’s pretty good at this: It gives Draymond Green, Ben Simmons, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Lamar Odom all A+ grades for the position. These players all are, were, or will be A+ passers in the NBA. And it’s a hugely valuable quality to have at a big position, not only because it’s rare, but because it’s very difficult to defend against.
Draymond Green and Paul Millsap are great examples of this in the NBA. But Daniel Ochefu on Villanova was also a great example in the NCAA tournament run. How many open three pointers did Villanova get because Daniel Ochefu could read the court and make accurate passes on time to the player’s that should be receiving them? I can’t count, mostly because I didn’t bother to do so. Regardless, it was a lot.
4. What I’m saying is don’t put too much stock into this number, especially as it moves towards the middle, where there is less separating the players. That being said, Ben Simmons, Daniel Ochefu, Robert Carter Jr., Chinanu Onuaku and Jakob Poeltl grade both by watching and by a variety of different numbers as Bigs with potentially exciting passing skills.
5. Just for shits and giggles, I’ll arrange the players by A-Rate after this and you’ll see that Onuaku compares pretty favorably to both Noah and Horford in this regard. Which is even more exciting because Chinanu Onuaku is the age of some college Freshman. Even if he doesn’t develop a consistent jump shot, this ability gives Onuaku some potential to add value to an offense besides just screening, finishing and O-Rebounding. Think about the way Golden State moves the ball, and just how much Andrew Bogut adds in that regard. And it’s not dissimilar to the types of Bigs Popovich has usually placed on his teams, or Budenholzer has found to play on Atlanta. Duncan, Diaw, Splitter, Oberto, Horford, Millsap, West. These guys can or could all pass, and at the very least grade as plus ball movers.
6. I’ve mentioned Millsap several times now, so let’s just say that he’s the exception and not the rule, at least in terms of a guy who didn’t pass in college who became an excellent passer in the pros. This rarely happens.
7. That’s one of the reasons I arranged this list by Raw Assists. It was interesting to me that pegging the list by Raw Assists per 40, with no consideration of Usage, seems to do a fairly good job of picking out good offensive players at the NBA level and especially those who became good passers as a Big. Draymond Green, Lamar Odom, Joakim Noah, Karl Malone, Anthony Mason, Chris Webber, Charles Barkley, Kevin Love and even Blake Griffin all have at least one season that qualified in the Top 24 seasons on this list, all at 2.6 Assists per 40 or above. All became good to excellent passers in the NBA.
Anthony Mason, who had marginal Assist numbers related to Usage in college, became good enough to run offense at the NBA level.
8. I don’t know exactly why that would be the case. It could have something to do with dribbling ability, intelligence and the ability to read the game. Perhaps it’s because these players are good enough to have the ball in their hands a large percentage of the time, without being Total Me-First players. (ala Michael Beasley.) But it’s hard to say for sure.
9. Though from this perspective, I also should have included Markus Kennedy on this list as he had 3.8 Assists per 40 this year and 2.5 as a Redshirt Sophomore at SMU. I didn’t because he’s a little bit of a tweener at only 6’9″ with a 6’11” wingspan, but with athleticism that probably makes a him a center. 3.8 would have placed him 6th. He’s also been an excellent defender on the college level, and Sullinger has been successful as a C this year with similar dimensions. Problem for Kennedy, he’s the same age as Sullinger and playing way down in competition. Still, he could be worth a flier. Would not be surprised if he makes a dent in the league of some kind, even if he’s not an all-star.
10. On the other side of things, Chris Boucher. Chris Boucher has very substandard passing skills. You can see that if you watch him. The only thing he seems comfortable doing is finishing possessions by shooting the ball. That leads to low turnovers, but it also leads to a player who potentially has some big deficiencies on offense. Which is a shame, because even with his frame, Boucher’s movement skills, length and intuitive shot blocking ability give him some upside as an NBA PF on defense. Another player, who might totally be worth a flier. Though I don’t think he’s entering the draft.
11. James Webb III, AJ Hammons, Deyonta Davis, Stephen Zimmerman, Ivan Rabb, Marquese Chriss all might have similar problems at the next level. That’s not to say passing can’t improve. Clearly, it did with Karl Malone and Paul Millsap. But these are rare occasions. Paul Millsap has become a player who can initiate offense. Karl Malone is one of the all-time great scorers at the position. That doesn’t really describe any of these players. Maybe Ivan Rabb, since there’s some athleticism, some dribbling skill, but I wouldn’t come close to expecting it.
We can see this a little more clearly if we look at this list by the Make-Shift Assist Rate number I have here. Once again, don’t put too much specific stock in it. It’s just meant to ballpark these players. And if you can go back Assist Percentage : Usage Rate is probably a more significant number.
1. Obviously Ben Simmons is the man.
2. Notice Chinanu Onuaku and how his career progression closely mirrors that of the Two Florida bigs, from the low .7s in their Freshman years to the .8s or .9s in their sophomore seasons. I don’t think this is by accident. You notice that Onuaku can pass if you watch him.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIfyHW4z13s&w=560&h=315]
That behind the back pass is one of many plays most bigs simply can’t make. Or even dream of.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzaGn2aBEqI&w=560&h=315]
Here we start off with the behind the back pass again. (It’s pretty, watch it again.) But then we get a 3/4 court outlet pass on the money and a perfect alley-hoop pass from behind the three-point line.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcr6MkmZE_M&w=560&h=315]
Now the full highlights. Athleticism. Defense. Passing, including some beautiful passes from the high post. Dunks. And even a mid-range jumper or two.
These are the kinds of plays you want to see. And while Onuaku doesn’t yet possess some of the other offensive skills Horford and Noah had coming out as juniors, namely both of those players could really dribble for their size and were more advanced in shooting, Onuaku is really young for his grade and a year less advanced in experience. That is, there’s time to learn some new tricks. There’s also a lot pointing to him as a potential big-time steal, considering also that his size, athleticism and defensive ability give Onuaku a considerable floor.
3. This is one reason to like Robert Carter Jr. He’s got excellent dribbling ability and passing ability for his size and position. It’s on display in most Maryland games even though he doesn’t get much of a chance to initiate offense. That coupled with highly projectable shooting from deep, as Carter Jr. has some of the best unassisted mid-range Two Point Jumper numbers in the database, and already improving range, and you have some ability for a high plus offensive player from the 4. It may not be likely, since it’s unlikely that any PF gets there. But it’s far from impossible from a player with Carter Jr.’s athleticism and skillset. Defensively is where the question marks are. And the hope would be that it’s the freedom of movement rules that are keeping Carter Jr. from playing with his body and his more than solid athleticism when he’s on the ball.
Here’s at least one place, he needs to take a lesson from Kris Jenkins of Villanova, who from a much less ideal frame gets much better results, at least at the college level.
4. Again, Chris Boucher. Ouch! It’s funny too, because he was Oregon’s most impactful player this year on the whole. His ability to shoot threes, rebound and defend at the college level is a pretty rare combination. If he adds some bulk, and some ability to pass the ball, he’s a player who could become more than just a flier.
5. I’m making a big deal out of passing because lots of the best offensive Bigs do it well. I would be remiss to point out that’s not true of all great offensive Bigs, even if the lack of a passing skill makes such success more unlikely. Anthony Davis, who was decent in college, has only been decent as a ball mover in the pros, and yet he put a +4 point offensive season in 2014-2015 by multiple metrics. (ORPM, OBPM for starters.) Whereas Shawn Marion put up multiple +3 offensive seasons, the value driven by open 3 pointers, free throws, offensive rebounds and low turnovers, which was enough, with his defensive contributions, to make him into a superstar.
6. Though it should be pointed out, Marion was one of those players whose offensive contributions greatly dwindled in the playoffs. Primarily that’s because smart teams like the Spurs eventually realized you could guard him with a smaller player, or in the Lakers’ case, with Lamar Odom, who moved like a smaller player, and that could greatly limit his ability to get off his jump shot. Since he didn’t have the ability to hurt many of these players down low, these moves greatly mitigated his offensive effectiveness. You just had to realize that Marion was going to get his rebounds no matter what.
The Amare Stoudemire suspension game in the 2006-2007 Playoffs was a great example of this. In the first half, the Spurs tried to guard Marion with a Big, and Marion torched them for I believe 20 points. But in the 2nd half, Oberto was essentially benched, and they guarded Marion with a player of his own size and he only scored 4 the rest of the game. Unable to contribute much else on that side of the ball, the Spurs ended up beating an undermanned Phoenix squad 88-85.
7. What I’m trying to say is that it’s possible that the lack of a passing skill could signify a player it’s easier to remove from the equation. For a player who can pass creatively, it’s impossible to take away everything. He can always move the ball on to someone else, potentially freeing this player up for a shot. However, if the player can’t make such passes and his opponent does find a way to neutralize his scoring efficiency to some degree, then there’s no place for his offensive game to go. Just something to think about.
8. In talking about exceptions to the rule, I am still not talking about those players whose lack of passing indicates a fundamental lack of understanding. These players who don’t understand the game still aren’t going to great offensively. Being able to move the ball on within the offensive scheme is an important skill.
Bigs Free Throw Attempts Per 40 Past and Present
1. I’m sorry I didn’t calculate Free Throw Rate, but it’s because in some ways, looking at this chart at least, looking at Raw Free Throw Attempts per 40 seemed to be also enlightening and useful.
2. The Offensive-Efficiency Metric is another Makeshift Metric on the end, using these stats. Again, don’t put too much stock into the individual numbers. For one, there are surely rounding errors involved, since I used these already rounded numbers. We are really just trying to ballpark the players and understand generally how efficient they were at scoring their attempts.
What I’ve tried to do is jerry-rig True Shooting Percentage into a formula that resembles Points Per Shot. But instead of just Field Goal Attempts being included, Free Throw Attempts are included as well.
3. On the low-end you find Anthony Mason. Not that far from him, you find Draymond Green, junior year Karl Malone and Thomas Robinson. On the high-end you find Charles Barkley and Blake Griffin. And not that far away Ben Simmons and Michael Beasley.
Which is to say, scoring efficiency numbers on their own really don’t tell us all that much. You have players who failed and players who didn’t fail, and while it’s obviously not bad for a Power prospect to score efficiently in college, some of the best guys on this list did not do so. That’s why I didn’t arrange this list by Offensive Efficiency.
4. It’s a similar story with Points Per 40. Michael Beasley and Anthony Mason at the top. Draymond Green, Al Horford and Joakim Noah consistently near the bottom for players of their experience level. It’s a number that on its own simply doesn’t tell us that much.
5. Now back to Free Throw Attempts per 40. It’s not an absolute, and it’s probably best to see these numbers ultimately through the Lens of Free Throw Rate, but I do think that we see some of the better NBA players on offense put up high Free Throw Attempt Totals, even with low FTr. That is Anthony Mason (9.3 as a senior on 22.9 shots), Karl Malone (7.3 as a junior on 17.2 shots), Chris Webber as sophomore (6.4 FTA per 40 on 15.9 shots), Lamar Odom as a Freshman (6.5 FTA on 15.1 shots), and then Rasheed Wallace and Draymond Green both in that 5.5-5.6 FTA range on 13-15 shots.
And then Shawn Marion, a future +3 offensive player in the league, much worse than that at only 4.7 FTA per 17.5 FGA.
6. Clearly, it’s not an end-all, be-all. That’s the first thing we should take from this. Strong NBA Bigs do emerge from the group of players that only got to the free throw line moderately well in college. Just as weak NBA players, like Michael Beasley and Thomas Robinson, came from the group of players that got to the free throw line very well. But after we acknowledge that, we do find also many strong players at the Top of the List.DeMarcus Cousins, Karl Malone, Elton Brand, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Blake Griffin, Anthony Mason, Paul Millsap.7. Not surprisingly, this is where Ben Simmons is. One of the few players with over 10 FTA per 40. But he has the best FTr of players in this group by a decent margin.8. Jakob Poeltl, right on the outskirts of the Top 10, also does very well here. And if we can figure out a way to ignore Poeltl’s performances vs. defenses that could provide resistance, Oregon and Gonzaga, for starters, there is some reason to believe in him and his skill-set as an offensive center. The real question is if there is any reason to believe in his defense, which looked to be the most promising part of his game as a Freshman. But which has faltered as his offensive game has taken off.Defensive Per 40 Statistics For Bigs Past and Present
1. Rebounds, Blocks, Steals are self-explanatory. Stocks are familiar to many by now, one of the stats Dean Demakis uses and a very useful one, especially for centers. But I’ve created a version of weighted stocks, which weighs steals as far more important. Because well, for most players the steals are the more important event to create, since they 1) Create live-ball turnovers that often result not only in easy scoring opportunities, but allow a team’s defense to remain set for the next defensive possession and thus more likely to succeed; 2) They definitively end the opponents possession whereas a block only occasionally results in a rebound; 3) Are far more likely to translate at most players at the NBA level.
For centers, blocks retain importance because they are a proxy for a player’s ability not only to alter or negate the other team’s shots at the rim, but because a great defensive centers presence at the rim can deter these shots altogether. (Think Tim Duncan in his prime, or perhaps Rudy Gobert now.)
So “Weighted Stocks” is not supposed to be a precise or exact indicator of anything, and if you don’t like the ratios I’ve used feel free to alter them and run the numbers yourself. I’m just trying to ballpark these players’ abilities and find potential patterns that lead to future success.
2. Much the same with my “Mostly Meaningless Defensive Rate 1.” There’s been no algorithms run to figure just how important blocks, steals and rebounds are. I’m not a statistician, but this is one of potentially numerous ways to try to look at steals, blocks, and rebounds in context with each other. So what I’ve done is added this version of Weighted Stocks to a Weighted Rebounding Average, where rebounds are worth much less than steals as well.
It’s not that rebounds aren’t important events. They are. It’s just that when you look at prospects on this level, in which they’ve already passed through a number of screens, it seemed to me they were comparatively less important.
For example, if we didn’t weight the rebounds down, Blake Griffin, Michael Beasley and Thomas Robinson would rate near the top of this list, but none of them have become anything close to great defenders in the NBA. This way we get Shawn Marion, Karl Malone, Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Chris Webber, DeMarcus Cousins, Nerlens Noel, Joakim Noah at the top. In other words, NBA defenders with a history of results, even the young players like Noel and Davis.
3. Shawn Marion was incredible. It’s pretty difficult to find other players with 3+ steals and 2+ blocks per 40 minutes in the Sports-Reference database. Amazingly, two of the players who almost accomplish this are in this draft. One is in this list: OG Anunoby, a Freshman, who I’d most likely rate in the Top 10 if he were in this draft. (2.3 steals per 40, 2.2 blocks.) That’s how impressed I’ve been with his athleticism, his play on defense and the promise of his jumper. For him, it would probably be better to stay in schools to develop some skills, since the NBA hasn’t proved great at this in recent years, but if he went, I’m valuing him high. Much higher than the NBA is likely to this year. (Same deal with Mikal Bridges as a Wing.)
The other is Jordan Fouse, a potential two position Wing Prospect, whose probably been significantly underrated, especially considering that he’s a good passer and his shooting numbers aren’t as bad the last two seasons as they look on the surface. (He’s hit about 40% over that time on Two Point Jumpers with decent amounts of unassisted makes. He also dramatically improved his Free Throw Percentage this year and is still 21 years old.) For his career, Fouse averaged 2.5 steals and 1.8 blocks per 40. And he came close to Marion’s 3+ steal, 2+ block threshold twice. 2.8 and 2 as a sophomore. 2.7 and 1.7 as a senior with a much more significant offensive load. Of course, Fouse play at Green Bay for a mid-major. And he doesn’t seem super sudden, but neither does Danny Green.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWLz7e5ne30&w=560&h=315]
Regardless, there’s major potential here for him to be a sleeper, and there are a variety of reasons he’s better than your typical “D Without The 3” Wing Prospect. For one, the defense is likely to be there as a plus. For two, he offers quite a lot besides shooting. And unlike some other prospects in recent years, like MCW for example, the shooting numbers really aren’t terrible.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6-bFZm38Nc&w=560&h=315]
Now back to talking about the Bigs.
4. Again, statistically Ben Simmons looks something like Freshman Karl Malone on defense and something like any-year Karl Malone on offense in terms of scoring, except he also has the dribbling ability of a guard and the passing ability of a point guard. If Simmons isn’t the obvious number 1 overall pick, I don’t know what the expectations are for obvious number 1 overall picks anymore. He should be as easy a choice as Karl-Anthony Towns was last year. Drafting Brandon Ingram for fit would be like drafting Victor Oladipo over Anthony Davis, were they in the same draft.
5. Anthony Davis’s numbers are also pretty insane. Nearly 6 blocks per 40 and almost, but not quite 2 steals. These are the numbers of all-time great defensive centers. Davis rates well as a Power Forward, and he’s put up one great defensive season there already, but New Orleans is probably making a major mistake playing him at the Power Forward position, since its much harder to serve as a deterrent at the rim if you’re occasionally forced to guard on the perimeter and Anthony Davis is one of the best rim defenders the college game has seen.
That’s not even getting into the way that playing Davis full-time at center would dictate match-ups, since basically no centers are going to be able to stick with Davis when he’s on offense. If Anthony Davis is at center full-time, the opposition has to make a choice: Go big and get killed on that end, or go small and get killed on that end. At Power Forward, the opponent gets to play as they always do and also gets to play off of New Orleans lousy centers, as they get to do on nearly 50% of possessions right now. This is a front office decision that greatly affects the coaches possibility to be successful.
6. According to this methodology, after Ben Simmons, the next best possibility for great defense at the PF position comes in the form of Brice Johnson, his Freshman, Sophomore and Senior seasons rating around seasons of Draymond Green, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Al Horford, Blake Griffin and Gorgui Dieng. On the whole, good to excellent NBA defenders. It’s exactly the same conclusion you’d come to by watching him and looking at all the other numbers. That he’s going to be some kind of plus on defense and perhaps has some chance to be a significant plus with his athleticism, length, rebounding and anticipation.
7. James Webb III and Chinanu Onuaku also have very good ratings for PF. That says something in Onuaku’s case because he’s 1) Only 19 and 2) Going to be an NBA center. In Webb III’s case, I think it corresponds to what we see on the court. A very long, very athletic player whose willing to get after it and is very competitive on the boards. He’s been an excellent defender in college so far and has a decent chance to shoot in the pros at some point, which could make him a truly excellent player.
8. And that’s it for players who grade exceptionally well by this methodology. Of course, there’s a major caveat. Anthony Mason, for instance, didn’t grade well until he was a senior. Lamar Odom didn’t grade well. Rasheed Wallace didn’t grade well. Joakim Noah and Charles Barkley have bum Freshman seasons.
So this way of looking at defense definitely says more about upperclassmen than it does about players with less experience. That would give some hope for Chriss, Rabb, Davis and even Siakam, who was late to basketball. (Siakam also grades excellently in the context of DRtg if we remember.)
9. Robert Carter Jr. grades as something of a disappointment looking at his defense in terms of the events he creates. That shouldn’t surprise us. For one, Maryland played a little slower than average this year. For two, Robert Carter Jr. does have some problems on defense. He can move his feet, show adequately and switch, but he’s also been beat up at times when left on an island. For example, the 27 points Perry Ellis scored with relatively little resistance in the NCAA tournament. (Though this wasn’t all Carter Jr.’s fault, since quite a lot of the damage was done because Maryland’s recovery defense, especially when Diamond Stone was in the game, was atrocious.)
With good feet, decent height and bulk (6’8″, 250) and excellent length (7’2″ or 7’3″) playing excellent defense at the point of attack should be possible for Carter Jr. That’s not to say he’ll ever do it. If he hasn’t so far, it’s a little unlikely. It’s entirely possible he remains as ineffective as Terrence Jones, who has similar measurements and also good athleticism. But the NBA gives the opportunity for interior players to play much more physically in the post than the college game does, on both sides of the ball. And it’s possible that might make a difference with Carter Jr.
It must also be said that this method punishes Carter Jr. for being a mediocre offensive rebounder. His defensive rebounding at 28.1% his sophomore year and 21% this year is relatively strong, especially in context with his teammates. The 28.1% number is an elite college number.
What Carter Jr. does offer is dribbling and passing ability on offense from a big position, a solid body to set screens, good hands on the catch. And the very good likelihood that he extends his range within the next 2 to 4 years. We’ll go into this more in depth with other players but you can see it pretty clearly in the hoop-math data:
53% on Two Point Jumpers this year with only 25.4% assisted. 71 total makes from that range. 53 unassisted makes. Those are elite numbers, which look even better when you look at his finishing at the rim (76%) and his 74.8% Free throw shooting. And it’s building off of Freshman and Sophomore seasons in which he shot 42% and 45% on Two-Point Jumpers and had 51 unassisted makes combined. (As a comparison Terence Jones was 38% and 27% from mid-range in his two years at Kentucky.)
We’ll look at the guys who end up shooting well in the pros in the next post or two to understand this more. And while shooting from distance is far from certain for Carter Jr., it’s hard to find a more promising profile without a significant amount of makes from three point range. And such profiles are very rare for power players in general. (As some potential evidence for Unassisted Two Point J’s being important, look no further than Trey Lyles. He shot 13% from three at Kentucky. However he shot 39% on Two-Point Jumpers with 19 unassisted makes and 73.5% on Free Throws. He then went on to shoot 38.5% from three in his first NBA season.)
10. There has to be some consideration for the position the player played in college. It’s just in general easier to get steals at the Power Forward position than at Center. So this has to be considered for guys like Boucher and Siakam. It is one factor that makes Onuaku’s Freshman season even more impressive.
11. Since I’ve made something of a big deal about the importance of looking at centers and how blocks are more important for centers than other positions, let’s look at the players as if they were Centers.
Looking at Defensive Statistics For Bigs Past and Present in Light of Their Position
1. Anthony Davis grades excellently as a Power Forward. However, if you were projecting him to be a defensive center and thought his body could withstand the position, he’d project as elite. That’s not to say he’d definitely be a better defensive Center than he is a Power Forward. He does have a slighter frame than many of the behemoths at the position. Guys like Bogut and Gasol. But it’s to say, New Orleans is potentially missing out on value by not giving the idea a full-on test drive. Especially when the Centers on their roster aren’t worth playing.
2. Chris Boucher has the same issue, except more extreme. He’s way to lanky to play center at the NBA level. However, Boucher does have good spring and lateral movement and plays with energy. It’s possible he could gain some weight and shift down to PF. The question will be if that shift down a position mitigates some of his defensive strengths, which for a college player are considerable.
3. AJ Hammons grades very well at the center position on defense and he’s decent enough on offense. If I was looking for solid back-up C late in the 1st with some actual upside, you could do much worse. I think Ochefu is the better college player, but it’s one reason why Hammons could be the more interesting pro prospect. He’s better at creating the types of events that matter. He’s also probably got the better shot at solidifying a jump shot.
Only 6 makes on the year but 6 makes in the rhythm of the offense is not nothing. 54.5% from the college three.
Both players graded out very well when looking at their production in context with their team’s defensive rating. Ochefu is the much, much better passer.
4. Chinanu Onuaku of course looks very good again, placing in the vicinity of Horford, Dieng, and Noel and as only a 19-year-old sophomore.
5. Deyonta Davis looks much better graded as a Center than as a Power Forward. The problem for Davis is that I think his body might be much better suited for the smaller position, since he’s not quite 6’10” and also not exceedingly long. (He also didn’t rebound all that well defensively, though some of that might be due to age and the fact that he played next to some very good defensive rebounders, namely Denzel Valentine and Matt Costello.) Measurements and workouts will be very important for him. Aside from that we two games vs. Purdue (Hammons, Haas, Swanigan) and two games vs. Maryland (Stone, Dodd, Carter Jr.) in which Davis did not play all that well and committed a ton of fouls.
Though he did have a very good game vs. Louisville earlier in the season. The caveat, Onuaku only played 16 minutes as he was in foul trouble, Mathiang only played 20 minutes and the Pitino was not yet trusting Spalding to minutes of any kind. You’d have to actually watch the tape to see who Davis matched up with and how often. And I didn’t watch that game, so it would be hard for me to say anything with certainty.
6. The big disappointment is Jakob Poeltl. We do have to consider that Utah played slow when Poeltl was a Freshman. That definitely affects the numbers a little bit, but Poeltl was much worse this year on defense as his offensive responsibilities improved. And it’s not just these numbers that indicate this fact. It’s also the DRtg numbers where Poeltl was the anchor of a Utah team with a DRtg of 101.3, which is pretty mediocre for a major Center prospect. It’s also a year away from being on a team that posted a Top 10 DRtg of 90.9, though it’s relatively clear now that Delon Wright was the major engine of that defense’s success.
So now we have a player Poeltl with some of the biggest questions a prospect can have? Can he handle the step-up in competition? He sure didn’t do well vs. Gonzaga or Oregon, the latter team on three separate occasions. The other question, will he actually play defense at the NBA level? Since Centers pretty much need to play defense to be Top 10 or Top 15 players.
We might look to Andrew Bogut as a positive indicator, 14 rebounds per 40 as a sophomore but only 1.1 steals and 2.1 blocks. Better numbers than Poeltl, yes, but similar enough to be in the same ballpark. The difference, Bogut was the unquestionable anchor of team that finished 5th in points allowed per game as a freshman (57.4) and 7th as sophomore (57.3). Poeltl on the other hand anchored a defense that finished 112th overall. (69.5 points per game. And 125th in DRtg.
There’s some potential here, yes, but I think I’ve previously been overrating his likelihood to reach it.
7. Ochefu and Siakam both grade solidly as Centers, and Ochefu will almost certainly be able to handle the position in the pros. He might be a bench big in the NBA, but he could be a significant piece for a team in the future. He understands team offensive and defensive concepts while almost at all times understanding his own strengths and his own limitations. I wouldn’t necessarily spend a draft pick on him, since he’s not the kind of player I’m looking for. But I very much hope he gets a shot.
8. Stephen Zimmerman’s number show defensive promise too. And I think that’s in line with what we see on the court.
9. That being said, I think most of the Freshman Bigs, outside of Ben Simmons of course, veer more towards guys with relatively high floors than guys with high ceilings. It’s possible they add skills, though the kind of skill development we’re talking about doesn’t happen all that often with players of any kind. That being said, it does happen more with Bigs than with players on the Perimeter. The reason being, perhaps, because Bigs don’t need as much skill to be highly successful as guards do.
Which is to say, though I won’t rate their chances of becoming stars that highly, I’d be much less surprised if one of Davis, Rabb, Zimmerman, even perhaps Skal or Ellenson, became a true star level player than a guy like Jaylen Brown, who has a major skill deficit right now. Or better yet, Jamal Murray, who has shown very little inclination to pass or defend at the college level. And he’ll almost certainly have to do at least one of those things at the pro level to succeed on such a high order, even if he shoots the lights out. That at least is a very real possibility.
Conclusions
1. Besides confirming further that Ben Simmons is a rare prospect, we haven’t learned anything for sure. Which should be expected. The draft is not an exact science. Far from it. But we have learned or confirmed to some extent which Bigs have at least a few exceptional skills that could provide a potential avenue to stardom.
2. After Simmons the two players I like most are Brice Johnson and Chinanu Onuaku. Brice Johnson fits the mold as a potential Two-Way Power Player. He’ll probably never be as good as Marion, but there are some definite similarities there. And if Johnson does stretch his jumper to the NBA three within three or four years, he could end up a +3 on offense, +3 on defense type of player every team wishes they had. What’s more is this: as the NBA gets smaller, Brice Johnson will have more and more chances to play Center, especially vs. NBA back-ups. Even without a jumper, Johnson is a decent bet to add value on both sides of the ball.
3. Chinanu Onuaku is a defensive center first and foremost. With the most optimistic projections, you’re talking about a +1 or +2 offensive player, like Noah or Horford, and a +3 to +5 defensive player, which is where these players fall. I can’t stress this enough: Defense happens to be a really important part of prospect evaluation, especially when you are looking for potential stars. Onuaku brings the defense.
4. Also in this group for me is Combo Forward OG Anunoby. He probably won’t go. He probably shouldn’t go. If I were drafting he’d definitely be a target.
5. After this group of players comes the guys it’s much more difficult to separate, which is why we’ll look at scoring numbers next and also at some point compare the advanced numbers of all these prospects. I personally like James Webb III and Robert Carter Jr. here. Because of their potential for offensive success mixed with defensive tools that might play in the NBA. But if you could convince me Deyonta Davis was definitely an NBA center, or that Jakob Poeltl wasn’t as soft as he seems to me. I could easily see the cases for these players. As I could a guy like Ivan Rabb or even Stephen Zimmerman. On the other hand, I don’t much love Henry Ellenson. As we’ve gone over, he probably won’t provide enough on defense. Neither do I love Marquese Chriss, since I don’t even know what position he could feasibly play in the NBA. He can’t rebound or defend anybody. He has basically zero perimeter skills besides shooting, which doesn’t make for a great wing. And I can’t remember the last lost puppy dog who became even a moderately successful NBA player. Maybe Meyers Leonard?
6. I’m sure there are other conclusions to draw that I haven’t seen or haven’t bothered to write down. Please feel free to add any you may see. And obviously we could draw better conclusions if we had better data for all the players. Either Pace based data or Advanced Statistics. But unfortunately, we do not.
Makeshift Top 10 NCAA players and Beyond
To go along with my semi-meaningless makeshift metrics, a semi-meaningless makeshift Top 10, which is definitely subject to change as we dive further into the numbers.
Tier 1
1. Ben Simmons
Tier 2
2. Brandon Ingram
Tier 3
3. Wade Baldwin 4. Kris Dunn 4. Chinanu Onuaku 4. Gary Payton II 4. Brice Johnson 8. OG Anunoby
8. Mikal Bridges
