I’m not talking about his two seasons at Oregon State. Everyone knows he killed it. Payton II’s Per 40 numbers from college:
(All numbers from Sports-Reference, save the Juco numbers which are from the SLCC Bruins Website.)
I’m talking about when he destroyed his junior college competition as well.
To quote Wikipedia:
Payton played two seasons at Salt Lake Community College in Salt Lake City, Utah. He averaged 9.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.9 steals per game as a freshman (2012–13) and led the Bruins to a 29-5 overall record and 14-1 mark in the Scenic West Athletic Conference (SWAC), where they won the Region 18 Championship and outright SWAC title in 2013. Payton was named First Team All-SWAC and made Region 18 All-Tournament Team as a freshman. In his sophomore year he averaged 14.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.9 steals per game earning him Second Team NJCAA Division I All-American and was voted 2014 Region 18 Co-Player of the Year and Region 18 Tournament Most Valuable Player. The Bruins finished with a 27-7 overall record and won their second consecutive Region 18 Championship.[2]
So Gary Payton II has been good at basketball for a while. To look this in further detail, let’s examine his Juco Per 40 Numbers:
Gary Payton II’s Juco Per 40 Numbers
Was Gary Payton II dominating guys just because he was older than them? Perhaps. (I can’t say. Even if Juco players often tend to be old for their college year, this is not always the case.)
What we can say for sure is that he was always dominating his level of competition. 9.5 rebounds per 40, 3 steals per 40, over a block as Freshman. 10.5 rebounds, 2.5 steals per 40, 1.4 blocks as a junior. Good passing numbers for junior college at 5.6 and 5.1 Assists per 40 in his Freshman and junior years respectively. Good Assist to Turnover ratios, at 2.2 and 1.6 respectively.
The major question for GP II has always been shooting. 30% as a Freshman from three and 34% as a sophomore. Basically where he’s at now. That’s the mildly troubling thing about Payton II.
Which is to say, there’s a reason why Payton II is going to be available later than a player with his athleticism, skills, frame and success normally would be. And if players were not able to overcome a lack of three point-shooting to become decently valuable offensive players, it would even be a wholly legitimate reason. But that’s not the case.
NBA Players Who Have Been Successful on Offense Without a 3-Point J, Post-Curry Era
1) What I’ve done is highlight the players who are more in line with what we expect Gary Payton II, which is to say not Russell Westbrook, not Dwayne Wade, not Kobe Bryant and perhaps not a guy like Kyle Lowry or Brandon Jennings who have lots of wiggle and flexibility with how they handle the ball. Let’s put Andre Miller in that true PG category too, though he was actually a more similar offensive and defensive player in college to Payton II than we might at first lead ourselves to believe.
Andre Miller was in the same continuum of “On-Ball, Off-Ball, Do Whatever The Offense Needs” Triple Double Threats as Payton II. He was just on a much better team. And Andre Miller was actually more than a solid defender back then. (This is why my comparisons of Valentine to Miller don’t quite hold up. One was much better at defense in college than the other, even if neither project to be great there in the Pros.) Miller’s athleticism just didn’t project as Payton II does. Didn’t stop him from becoming an amazing offensive player.
2) Andre Miller’s per 40 college numbers for those interested in comparing them to Payton II’s above:
Not to suggest that they are similar players. But to suggest that Payton II, like Andre Miller, is really good at college basketball.
3) Now Miller was further along to the true PG side of that continuum, but at Utah he wasn’t setting up players every possession. We forget that. In college, at least as Miller got older, he was as much a scorer as he was playmaker. (Miller played more similarly to the player he became in the NBA as a Freshman and Sophomore than he did as a Junior and especially as a Senior. Awesome regardless.)
One thing I’d like to point out is that even though Payton II is more towards the Combo Guard side of this continuum, he has excellent vision and that vision has existed for at least going back to his Juco days. This is a beautiful pass:
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw8SGA-GQ2M&w=560&h=315]
These are the kinds of passes that just completely destroy the offense coming from and off-ball player. Since most off-ball players just don’t have great vision. Quick, incisive and directly into the heart of the defense. It’s the kind of thing we get from Shaun Livingston, Manu Ginobili, Andre Iguodola and only a few others. And it’s one way in which we are greatly underestimating the impact that a player like Payton II can make, even if he doesn’t shoot.
These are the kinds of plays you see at least a couple of times a game almost every time you watch Oregon State. Not just a guy who makes plays because he has the ball in his hands, but a guy who makes plays because he sees the floor.
4) That’s not to say Payton II has no wiggle at all. He’s hardly just a straight-line driver. But he’s not going to wow you with his handle in the way Kyrie Irving does. Or at least he hasn’t so far.
But we do see him able to go side to side as he advances towards the cup and that he has the ability to read the court and make passes on the move. It’s only a highlight video, but if you watch long enough you’ll see at least an example or two of Payton II’s dribbling ability, as well as a 3-Pt make off-the-catch. (Shooting on-the-ball can suppress numbers, sometimes dramatically.)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ57THVS2vs&w=560&h=315]
5) The players I’ve highlighted are those that have managed to be successful offensively without being as shifty with the ball as a player like Brandon Jennings or even Monta Ellis, without being Master-Class Point Guards like Andre Miller, without being Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade or Russell Westbrook and without a Three-Point Shot. It’s a continuum of Wings and Combination Guards that have at least some ability to pass (Iguodola and Payton II would be on the upper echelon here) and some ability to create their own offense. Butler, Iguodola, DeRozan, Evans, Stuckey. You could add Jordan Clarkson, 2010-2011 Devin Harris, 2010-2011 Joe Johnson, 2014-2015 Reggie Jackson, and this year’s version of Mario Chalmers if you want as well.
6) These aren’t necessarily the highest value players on the list, but there’s a decent range of value here from +1 to +4 points on Offense. (At least by this metric.)
7) What keeps most of these players from being truly valuable is not their offensive ability, it’s the fact that most of them only play on one side of the ball. The guys who play on both sides of the ball with this offensive skill-set can still become stars as we’ve seen with Butler and Iguodola, or just a level down from that, as we’ve seen with Tyreke Evans. (This is obviously excluding the upper order of magnitude stars like Wade and Westbrook.)
8) One of the other aspects I highlighted was rebounding ability. This is an area a player like Payton II is going to bring major value. Only a few players on the list do so: Westbrook, Wade, Bryant, Butler, Iguodola, Evans. Those names should suggest something to us about the uniqueness and potential usefulness of the package that Payton II presents. Not that he’s as good as the players at the Top of the list. But that he is super-intuitive and super-athletic and both of those qualities play at the NBA level.
9) One place where Stuckey, DeRozan and Butler are likely to be better than Payton II into the future is in terms of FTA. Payton II is a relatively low FTA player for a guy as athletic as he is. Some guys do improve a lot after entering the pros, like Westbrook, but it’s not something we should remotely expect.
10) He’s much shorter than Iguodola, but the way Iguodola plays as a pro might be the most similar player to Payton II in terms of an overall floor game. Very unselfish, good vision, a true Combination guard who makes winning plays all over the court and plays both sides of the ball. Has really had to work to make himself a shooter.
11) Team Context is going to matter for Payton II. He’s going to have to find a coach that realizes his strengths and doesn’t try to jam him into a role that doesn’t work. If Payton II is successful, I won’t be surprised if his offensive career doesn’t in some way resemble that of Iguodola. Which is to say, he won’t necessarily have to shoot exceedingly well from distance.
If Payton II does learn how to shoot from distance, we’re talking about a potentially different order of magnitude altogether. You add shooting to his on-ball decision-making, his off-ball decision-making (in this, only Payton II and Walkup are close to each other in terms of the quickness of their decisions, how rarely they make mistakes or take bad shots, and how often a quick pass of theirs cuts into the defense.)
12) Lastly, Payton II’s measurements are pretty good. 6’3″ with a 6’8″ wingspan. That’s basically the same size as Eric Bledsoe, another player who’s been on the non-shooter, successful offensive player Combination Guard continuum. His 2014-2015 season, he shot 32% from Three while posting a near +2 OBPM.
Bledsoe’s also a guard who can legitimately defend two positions. Though he might be stronger than Payton II.
Langston Galloway is more of a jump shooter and less of a PG, but he also has similar measurements and similar, if slightly less, two position defensive success. (Galloway is also not the same order of athlete.)
13) Cutting ability. We always underrate cutting ability and how useful it can be to an NBA offense. Few guys are great at it. Dwayne Wade is one of them. Gary Payton II has been a legitimately great cutter in college. His sense of timing and space is pretty impeccable. Which is to say, there are other ways a player can put up pressure on a defense, even if the ball is in their hands and even if they don’t shoot. However, the coach has to create an offensive system fit to the players strengths.
14) One way to do that is to try to get players like this catches between 6 and 15 feet. Not necessarily going towards the basket, just to get the ball in their hands in this area, from which they have to do less work to get all the way to the basket. The Celtics used to do this constantly with Paul Pierce. Those elbow touches weren’t just instituted as part of the offense to set up elbow jumpers. They put Paul Pierce in a Triple-Threat position at a place on the court where one or two dribbles could take him all the way to the rim.
Play too close, he went past you. Play too far off, he drained a J. Help too much he made a pass.
15) The Pistons used to do this with Richard Hamilton on any number of curl screens designed to get Hamilton catches between 8 and 12 feet and the Spurs used to do it a decent amount with Tony Parker and Jacques Vaughn.
I remember one Playoff run in which Vaughn was having difficulty initiating offense from the top of the key, so Popovich somehow drew up some plays where Vaughn would consistently catch the ball on the baseline, at the level or slightly behind the basket, around 5-12 feet away from the rim.
Once a guy with point guard skills catches the ball there, especially in a double or triple threat position, the possession is over. The offense is going to get a good look. The defense just doesn’t know it yet. There’s just no way to defend both the rim and the pass and from that vantage point, the PG can see everything, since he’s facing out towards the three-point line, not in towards the basket.
If you’ll notice, Larry Bird and Steve Nash used to get themselves into this position off the dribble by taking the ball under the basket and coming out on the other-side.
What happens is that the defender can no longer stay between the ball and the basket and defend passing angles. If the defender chooses to defend the rim at all costs, every passing angle is open. (In most cases the defense has been greatly distorted by getting the ball to this area, so there’s going to be a pass available.) If the defender chooses to play defense like he normally would, there’s going to be an angle to get a shot off close to the basket. Many of those unique hooks and flip shots that Nash used to take around the basket used to come out of this action.
16) Most guys can’t get to this behind-the-basket spot off the dribble. And most coaches won’t be able to get their players catches there off the catch. So let’s consider that 8-15 foot area again.
This is an area of the floor many offensive schemes fail to exploit. It’s not because there aren’t opportunities there, especially if a team can place three other Three-Point Shooters on the floor. (One of the factors that allowed Parker or Hamilton to get touches in this area is that the Spurs and Pistons had Power Players who could shoot. The Spurs with Robert Horry. The Pistons with Rasheed Wallace.)
If I were coach with Payton II at his (or her) disposal, this is one area of the floor I’d try to get him touches.
17) Low opportunity cost. Generally we think of the most valuable player as the one with the highest Usage. Or near the highest Usage. And very often that’s true. Players like Curry, Lebron, Westbrook, Lillard, Harden all have very high Usage Rates and are very valuable offensive player. However, it’s not always the case. Draymond Green is an example. To be a truly great offensive team, you need a player who makes plays and adds value without using a ridiculous amount of possessions. Kawhi is another version of this type of player.
These are the kinds of offensive players that potentially make the best fits with other great players. And Payton II might be able to be this kind of glue player. Green is the best example, but Dennis Johnson was one on those great Celtics teams in the 80s, Devin Harris was once this guy one a 67 Win Dallas Mavericks team. (That’s actually my favorite version of Harris, the one who was all world in terms of staying in front of his man and affecting the game on the defensive end.) These guys can be valuable, way more the metrics say. And great teams often need a guy like this that allows other players to use possessions and puts them in position to do so successfully.
We know Gary Payton II won’t shoot bad shots. We know he can affect the game with his passing. It’s possible he could be this type of player.
Conclusion
I’m not going to say we are overrating the importance of Three-Point Shooting. Three-Point Shooting is very important. I do think we are underestimating the importance of intelligence, passing, dribbling ability, athleticism, defense and any number of other aspects that might allow a player like Payton II to be successful. Especially in a scenario where he gets to play next to a plus or super-plus perimeter player who can shoot off the dribble. And possibly with Bigs who can shoot.
And sure enough, with Payton II projected in the late 1st/early 2nd area and with Golden State, San Antonio, Toronto (though they aren’t a particularly good fit if they re-sign DeRozan, not to mention the fact that they already have Powell, Wright and Joseph), LAC picking in that area (not that they have power players who can shoot), this is a scenario we might get to see play out. Indiana would be another potentially great fit due to Paul George and George Hill, especially if Myles Turner develops out to the three-point line. Or they find their Stretch-4.
Payton II is not Tony Allen on offense. (And probably not on defense either. No one is.) If Tony Allen could pass like Payton II or even shoot a 12-15 foot jumper, there’s no way you would be able to guard him with Andrew Bogut. Or any such player. Nor should we forget that there’s still time for Payton II to learn how to shoot.
Who knows if that will happen? I certainly don’t. What I do know is that Gary Payton II knows how to play basketball. That there is space in the league for guys who understand the game should their coaches not try to pigeonhole them into playing roles which they are not capable. And if the coach is willing to be creative. If that happens, Payton II might have a chance to have a chance to be much more than the back-up caretaker on offense many are pegging him as.
Imagine if Draymond Green got stuck on a team that insisted he was a Small Forward and with a coach that never trusted him to initiate the offense. He’d still good, but he wouldn’t be the wrecking ball we know and love today. The same thing might be required for player’s like Payton II, Baldwin, Dunn in the opposite direction. I’d give them all chances at the Point, but if that fails, allowing them to play a hybrid role might really allow them to thrive on offense. We all know these players will have chances to defend at above average levels.
