It’s been a fantastic year for free Boxing so far, and it’s only about to get better. Undefeated welterweights Keith Thurman and Danny Garcia are about to clash in the most significant welterweight fight in two years. It’ll be on CBS, which will bring a wide audience to the stacked card.
March 4th, CBS 9:00 pm EST
Chad Dawson is fighting for his career.
Welterweight has not had a lot of unification fights recently, but it’s ostensibly the most popular division in boxing. This is the same division that Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao made their names at and more importantly, their money. The winner of this fight will still have a ways to climb before reaching star power of that magnitude, but this will be a very solid foundation for Keith Thurman or Danny Garcia to work off of. Not that they haven’t already proven themselves as good fighters mind you, this is a fun fight for that reason.
To get into the technical analysis, they’re both boxer-puncher types. That is, they hit hard enough to score knockouts and dance well enough to win decisions. Keith Thurman is bigger by a fair margin, he used to fight at junior middleweight and on fight nights he weighs almost 20 pounds more than the division limit. Thurman describes himself as a power puncher (he calls himself “One Time” because he only needs to hit his opponents “One Time”) but I think that underrates his actual boxing ability. Despite literally making a name for himself with knockouts, his best wins have usually been decisions. For many power punchers, stepping up to the point where power cannot win them fights alone means they have hit their ceiling, but Thurman has shown a lot of poise and patience in his decisions. Stylistically, he’s also been fairly good at adapting and working with what he has, which is the best quality a fighter can have. His most recent bout came against Shawn Porter last year. It was a messy fight where Porter made Thurman fight Porter’s fight, but Thurman was able to win it. Thurman will likely be the aggressor in the ring, but he’s not a wild animal or anything. I expect it to a be fairly tepid start.
Danny Garcia is a complicated figure in the boxing world. He’s good, really good. There’s been a lot of questions about him, though. The first problem he has is that he doesn’t look all that good, he’s not particularly strong, he’s not outrageously fast or slick, he’s sort of average as athletes go. The things that make him a good fighter are all more subtle, his timing is excellent, his boxing fundamentals are top notch and despite his persona, he’s extremely dedicated to the sport. Garcia has a few impressive wins over the likes of Amir Khan and Lucas Matthysse, but he also a number of much less impressive, controversial wins over lower level fighters like Mauricio Herrera and Robert Guerrero. There is a sense among fans that he’s due for a loss against stiffer opposition, somebody like Keith Thurman. Make no mistake, though, Garcia fights to his level of opposition and always finds some way to win. He’s one of those fighters I find tricky to predict because he can win a lot of fights without looking great. He does a bring a few solid weapons to this fight, though, he’s an effective counter puncher which will help against Thurman. He’s also got one of the best-left hooks in the sport.
Oddsmakers have Thurman as a moderate favorite and I have to agree. There is a little bit a doubt wriggling in my head, though, it’s the way Garcia has always been able to win fights that it seems like he shouldn’t and how he’s never been too bothered by punchers. Still, he’s never faced a puncher as big as Thurman before, and it’s not like Thurman is a slouch by any measure. I think this fight goes the distance, with a close but clear decision for Thurman. The winner of this fight will be a unified WBC and WBA welterweight champion, with no clear next step. Potential mandatory opponents Errol Spence and Amir Khan have been in negotiations with the two other major title holders in the division, Kell Brook, and Manny Pacquiao. There are still a lot of good welterweights out there, though, and either man will first have to win the belt.
On the undercard, Junior Middleweight prospect Erikson Lubin fights Jorge Cota. Jorge Cota is a tough fighter with just one defeat on his record, but he shouldn’t pose too much of a threat to Lubin. That’s not to say this fight can’t be fun or competitive, a guy like Cota is there to give Lubin a challenge, it’s just a challenge that should be winnable. Cota’s last win was pretty decent, he busted a rebuilding prospect in Yudel Johnson, but that was back in 2015. I’m not trying to downplay the significance of this fight too much, though, Lubin is looking to make the jump into the upper levels of the division and a good win here will indicate he’s ready. It’s also always nice to see a prospect on their way up.
Finally, there’s also a fight between Andrzej Fonfara and Chad Dawson. This is a very interesting fight. Fonfara’s last fight was a first-round knockout loss last year to the unheralded Joe Smith Jr. Before that, though, Fonfara was quickly rising in the division, looking for a rematch with lineal champion Adonis Stevenson. The Joe Smith Jr loss was a shock, and there are a lot of ways to interpret it. It’s possible that it was a fluke or that Joe Smith Jr is an elite fighter, but it could also mean that Fonfara’s flaws as a fighter are pretty exploitable. It’s not too hard to point to these, as compubox numbers have always shown Fonfara’s defense to be noticeably lower than average. This will be his first fight back from that and there’ll be a lot of questions to answer as losses like that can have a very big psychological impact. If Fonfara’s still as good as he was before, this is a winnable fight for him. I personally think he’ll be good to go, based on the mentality he’s always had. While it’s possible he’s been rattled a bit, he had two losses early in his career, which usually means he already knows how to deal with a loss. The main variable in this fight is Chad Dawson.
Chad Dawson is one of the most mysterious fighters of the last decade to me. He won the light heavyweight title in 2007 and successfully defended it for a few years before losing it to Jean Pascal. After two very close scraps with Bernard Hopkins, he won the title back and was once again considered the best light heavyweight in the world. Then things took a turn for the worse. He dropped down in weight to challenge Andre Ward and was dominated, the he moved back up and was knocked out with a single punch against Adonis Stevenson. Instantly, his career died. Since then, he’s had a lot of trouble getting into the ring at all. A few years back, he dropped a close decision to a fringe contender and it really seemed like he might be done for good. This is a last chance opportunity for Dawson though, a win here could set him on the right track again.
The thing with Dawson is that it’s not entirely clear what made him fall off. He’s always had incredible talent and high-level skills, but his dedication was questionable. His first 3 losses aren’t even that bad, they’re all to elite fighters. It seems like the Ward fight may have broken him a bit, but it’s not hard to imagine him being a top fighter today. He still has the tools and abilities but he might no longer be able to use them. If Dawson has rekindled his passion for boxing he can be a much bigger threat than what’s perceived right now. I would not count him out entirely, he knows this is a winnable fight and it’s last real chance in the sport.
What’s interesting about this fight is that you have two fighters that have very good potential, but cannot afford to sink any lower. A win for either guy is hope, a window back into the light heavyweight conversation. A loss is probably career death. It’s significantly grimier than the main event, where two unblemished boxers are competing for a belt, but the stakes are arguably higher. Fonfara is the favorite here. It’s easy to see the Smith fight as more of an anomaly than Dawson’s trouble, but it’s just as easy to see Dawson being so far gone it wouldn’t matter anyway. Fonfara’s always had a lot of heart and a strong work ethic, which I think will give him a huge advantage if this comes down to a battle of wills. I think Fonfara gets a clear victory here. I’m really intrigued by Chad Dawson, but he’s way too unreliable to pick right now.
