MLB

MLB Award Predictions

PHOENIX, AZ – APRIL 29: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies prepares for a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on April 29, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) We give Jose Altuve the nod in the AL MVP race.

AL MVP

  1. Jose Altuve
  2. Aaron Judge
  3. Jose Ramirez

All three of these players, as well as perennial AL MVP candidate Mike Trout, are deserving of the award this season. Ramirez, in his breakthrough season, hit .316/.360/.580, a 6.6 WAR season that included 29 HR, 83 RBI, 106 runs, 184 hits, 16 SB, and a league-leading 55 doubles and 90 extra base hits. In Los Angeles, Trout, despite playing in only 113 games, still finished the season with 33 HR, 72 RBI, 92 runs, 94 BB, 22 SB, and hit .305/.442/.630, giving him a career high and league leading OBP, SLG, and OPS, for a total of 6.7 WAR.

Which brings us to our final two candidates, the 5’6” Altuve, and the 6’7” Judge. In the greatest offensive rookie season in baseball history, Judge finished second in the AL with 8.0 WAR and 114 RBI, hitting .284/.422/.627 with a rookie record and AL Leading 52 HR, as well as a league-leading 128 runs scored, and 127 BB. However, as great as Judge was, we cannot overlook the fact that for much of July and August, he was a negative presence to the Yankees lineup, and also led the AL with 208 strikeouts.

Many people think the AL MVP should come from the best team in the league; while the Astros weren’t the best, they were a 101-win team, and Altuve was their most valuable player all season. For the season, Altuve won his third batting title in four years while hitting .347/.411/.549, also adding 24 HR, 81 RBI, 112 runs, 32 SB, and a league-leading 212 hits, his fourth straight 200 hit season. Altuve finished first among AL players with 8.4 WAR, and in this case, WAR got it right.

NL MVP

  1. Charlie Blackmon
  2. Giancarlo Stanton
  3. Joey Votto

This could be the most crowded MVP race in MLB history, with up to six players possibly receiving votes. Just missing my ballot were the following players: Nolan Arenado, who finished with 7.0 WAR behind his all-world defense at third base, as well as another outstanding offensive season, hitting .309/.373/.586 with 100 runs, 43 2B, 37 HR, and 130. RBI. Anthony Rendon was the anchor for the Nationals all season when injuries struck, finishing with 5.9 WAR and setting career highs nearly across the board by hitting .301/.403/.533 with 25 HR, 100 RBI, and 41 2B. The last player to just miss my ballot was Paul Goldschmidt, who had another strong, 5.9 WAR season, that saw him hit .297/.404/.563 with 17 runs, 34 2B, 36 HR, 120 RBI, and a sneaky 94 stolen bases.

If Joey Votto wasn’t playing for a last-place team, he would have gotten my first place vote without hesitation. However, baseball is a team game, and the reality is, the Reds were in last place all season. Based on FanGraph’s WRC+, which measures how many runs a player was worth to his team, Votto led the NL with 164 WRC+ in a 7.4 WAR season that saw him lead the NL with 134 walks (against only 83 strikeouts) while hitting .319/.454/.575 to league the lead in OBP and OPS. And did I mention he also scored 105 runs, and hit 36 HR with 100 RBI?

With such a crowded ballot, I think Stanton will end up winning the NL MVP because he will get the most top-three votes. Which is totally fair, after Stanton led the NL with 7.6 WAR, combing a league-leading 59 HR and 131 RBI with 123 runs scored, and overall numbers of .280/.376/.633. In leading the league in SLG, Stanton had fans on the edge of the seat with his home run race to 60, and although he ultimately fell short, his power display should put him near the top of many NL MVP ballots.

However, Coors Field be damned, my NL MVP vote is going to Rockies’ outfielder Charlie Blackmon. Despite “only” 5.9 WAR, Blackmon won the NL batting title after hitting .330/.339/.601, and led the NL with 137 runs, 212 hits, and 14 3B. Blackmon’s 35 2B and 37 HR helped him lead the NL with 386 total bases, and his 104 RBI were the most ever by a leadoff hitter. As the table setter for the Rockies (how else do we think Nolan Arenado has so many RBI) Blackmon’s all-around numbers were arguably the greatest ever for a leadoff hitter, and simply cannot be written off as a product of his home stadium.

AL Cy Young Award

  1. Corey Kluber
  2. Chris Sale
  3. Luis Severino

This is going to be a neck and neck race between Kluber and Sale; but before we get to that, let’s give credit to our third-place finisher, Luis Severino, who reemerged as the Yankees ace of the future this season. One of the hardest throwers in baseball, Severino finished the season ranked 9th in the AL in both innings pitched with 193.1, and wins with 14. Severino’s 240 strikeouts were 4th in the AL, and his ERA of 2.98 and WHIP of 1.04 each ranked third respectively.

Sale, in his first year in Boston, was every bit the ace that Dave Dombrowski thought he was acquiring when he dealt top prospects Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech to the White Sox. For the season, Sale went 17-8, finishing 4th in the AL in wins, 1st in innings pitched with 214.1, and strikeouts with 308, and was 2nd in the AL in ERA and WHIP at 2.90, and 0.97. Had this been a first half award, Sale would have been the runaway winner, heading into the all-star break with an 11-4 record, 2.75 ERA, and 178 strikeouts in only 127.2 innings pitched. In the second half, Sale still pitched well, but only went 6-4 with a 3.12 ERA. Overall, Sale finished the season with 5.9 WAR.

In Cleveland, Kluber had a fantastic year of his own, as despite missing time due to injury, he still managed to finish 4th in the AL in innings pitched with 203.2 innings. Other than that, Kluber dominated the AL pitching leaderboards, finishing first in wins with 18, winning percentage with .818, (an 18-4 record) ERA at 2.25, WHIP at 0.87, complete games with 5, and second in strikeouts with 265. Compared to Sale’s 5.9 WAR, Kluber led all pitchers with 8.2 WAR, and while Sale struggled slightly in the second half, Kluber excelled, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 142 strikeouts with 110.1 innings pitched. Backed by an incredible finish to the season, look for Corey Kluber to capture his second AL Cy Young Award.

NL Cy Young Award

  1. Max Scherzer
  2. Clayton Kershaw
  3. Zack Greinke

Again, I think this going to be another two-dog race between Scherzer and Kershaw, so I will start by giving credit to my third-place finisher, Zack Greinke. Following a “down” season where he went 14-7 with a 4.37 ERA, Greinke came roaring back in 2017 to lead the Diamondbacks from 69 wins in 2016, to 93 wins and an NL Wild Card spot. With 6.3 WAR, Greinke finished 17-7, good for second in the NL in wins. Additionally, Greinke finished 4th in the NL in innings pitched with 203.1 innings, 5th in strikeouts with 215, 6th in ERA at 3.20, and 4th in WHIP at 1.07.

Injuries plagued Kershaw throughout the season, causing him to only throw175.0 innings pitched over 27 starts. However, Kershaw made those starts count, finishing first in the AL in winning percentage (.818) and wins with an 18-4 record, and fist in the AL in ERA at 2.31. Kershaw also compiled 5.0 WAR, sixth amongst NL pitchers, finishing 8th in the NL with strikeouts with 202, and second in WHIP at 0.95. An incredible season on paper, but not the crazy, over the top dominance we’ve come to expect out of the Dodgers’ ace.

Kershaw’s injury opened the door for Scherzer to win his second straight Cy Young Award, and third overall. Scherzer tied with Giancarlo Stanton to lead all NL players with 7.6 WAR, with a significant innings advantage over Kershaw, finishing seventh in the NL with 200.2 innings pitched. Scherzer’s numbers paint the picture of his dominance, as he finished 4th in the AL in wins with 16, and winning percentage at .727 (16-6 record), finished second in the NL with a 2.51 ERA, and led the NL with 268 strikeouts, and a 0.90 WHIP. As good as Kershaw as this season, Scherzer was better over about 3-4 starts worth more innings, which is why I am picking him as the best pitcher in the NL this season.

AL Rookie of the Year

  1. Aaron Judge
  2. Andrew Benintendi
  3. Trey Mancini

Aaron Judge is a frontrunner for the AL MVP award; thus, he should win the AL Rookie of the Year in unanimous fashion. But credit should still go to Benintendi and Mancini on outstanding rookie seasons. The number one prospect in baseball coming into this season, Benintendi finished his rookie season with the Red Sox with 2.6 WAR, hitting .271/.352/.424 with 84 runs scored, 26 2B, 20 HR, 90 RBI, and 20 SB. Mancini, a less herald prospect for the Orioles, quietly gave the Orioles a middle of the order bat all season, hitting .293/.338/.448 with 24 HR, 78 RBI, and 2.2 WAR.

NL Rookie of the Year

  1. Cody Bellinger
  2. Rhys Hoskins
  3. Paul DeJong

While Bellinger is not an MVP candidate, he should also win the Rookie of the Year unanimously, surpassing the Dodgers expectations with 4.2 WAR and all-star appearance. For the season, Bellinger hit .267/.352/.581, with 87 runs, and an outstanding 39 HR and 97 RBI. Despite playing in only 50 games for the Phillies, Hoskins managed to finish with 2.0 WAR, lighting the baseball world on fire by hitting .259/.396/.618 with 37 runs, 18 HR, and 48 RBI in only 170 at-bats. Quietly, the Cardinals may have found their shortstop of the future this year in DeJong, who finished at 2.7 WAR after hitting .285/.325/.532, with 25 HR, 65 RBI, and 55 runs scored in 108 games.

AL Manager of the Year

  1. Paul Molitor
  2. Joe Girardi
  3. Mike Scioscia

Huge shoutouts to Mike Scioscia and Joe Girardi for the jobs they did this year. Despite injuries to Mike Trout and a depleted rotation, Scioscia had the Angels in the playoff hunt until the last week of the season, finishing with an 80-82 record. Over in New York, everyone wrote off the Yankees as being two to three years away, with many predicting them to finish last in the AL East. Yet under Girardi’s watch, the Yankees made the playoffs with a 91-71 record and appeared poised to be an AL power for the foreseeable future.

Which brings us to Paul Molitor. Last season, the Twins finished dead last in the MLB with a 59-103 record. The first half of the season brought some slight improvements, with the Twins at 45-43, but not enough for the front office to believe in the team, as they sold off all-star closer Brandon Kintlzer, traded Jaime Garcia after a week in Minnesota, and watched slugger Miguel Sano went down with an injury. Despite all these obstacles, Molitor led the Twins to a 40-34 record in the second half and 85-77 record overall, a huge turnaround that punched the Twins ticket to the AL Wild Card game in the same season where they picked #1 overall in the MLB Draft.

NL Manager of the Year

  1. Torey Lovullo
  2. Craig Counsell
  3. Bud Black

Credit to Craig Counsell and Bud Black; both of them led outstanding turnarounds this season. Led by Counsell, the Brewers finished second in the NL Central at 86-76, a thirteen-win improvement from 2016’s 73-89 record. In Colorado, Black brought the Rockies back to the playoffs for the first time since 2009, nurturing a young pitching staff to an 87-75 record, a twelve win improvement from 2016.

Last season, the Diamondbacks finished 69-93, the seventh-worst record in all of baseball. Over the offseason, the Diamondbacks fired manager Chip Hale and brought in Lovullo, the former Red Sox bench coach. In his first season with the Diamondbacks, Lovullo flipped the Diamondbacks record from 69-93 to 93-69, leading them to home field advantage in the NL Wild Card game. With such a drastic improvement this season, Lovullo is the hands-on favorite to take home NL Manager of the Year in his first year as a big league skipper.

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