Trevor Hoffman looks like a lock to make the Hall next season.
In January 2018, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America will vote on the 2018 class of the Baseball Hall of Fame. In order to gain entry into Cooperstown, a player must receive 75% of the writers’ votes; players become eligible for the ballot five years after their retirement and can spend up to ten years on the ballot. If not elected after ten appearances on the ballot, or if they receive less than 5% of the vote, a player is forever dropped from the regular ballot. Each voter can vote for up to ten players on their ballot.
With the MLB postseason just around the corner, here is my way too early ballot for the 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame (In no particular order).
On his fourth try on the ballot, the greatest closer in NL history, and the second greatest closer of all-time should become the sixth closer in the history of the game to enter the Hall of Fame. From 1995-2009, Hoffman finished with 30+ saves every year except 2003, and over 40+ SV nine times. The first relief pitcher with 600 saves, Hoffman finished second on the all-time list with 601.
One of the most exciting players to watch in the 20th Century, Guerrero will enter Cooperstown on the strength of his all-around play, finishing his career with 1328 runs, 2590 hits, 477 2B, 449 HR, 1496 RBI, and a career .318/.379/.588, with one of the strongest throwing arms the game has ever seen. A 9x All-Star, 8x Silver Slugger, and the 2004 AL MVP, Guerrero has the 5th most intentional walks all-time with 250, and finished his career with ten 100 RBI seasons, and never hit below .290 in a full season.
Did Clemens likely take steroids beginning with his time playing for the Blue Jays in 1997? Absolutely. But looking at his career with the Red Sox, from 1984-1996, I still see enough for a Hall of Fame pitcher; 192-111 (.634 Winning %) 3.06 ERA, 100 CG, 2590 K, three AL Cy Young Awards, and the 1986 AL MVP. With the Red Sox, Clemens led the league in wins twice, ERA four times, CG twice, SHO five times, strikeouts three times, and WHIP twice. With the Red Sox, Clemens finished with 81.3 WAR; had he retired then, he still would have ranked 26th all-time amongst pitchers. Factoring in that thirteen-year stretch of dominance, along with the four Cy Young awards after leaving the Red Sox, and Clemens has done enough to warrant a spot in Cooperstown.
Similarly to Clemens, many fans and writers think that Bonds’ alleged steroid use began with the Giants following the 1998 home run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. And just like Clemens, Bonds has career numbers from 1986-1998 that no question merit a spot in the Hall of Fame; 1364 runs, 1917 hits, 411 HR, 1216 RBI, 445 SB, 403 2B, 1357 BB (to only 1050 K) and averages of .290/.411/.556. Over the same time period, Bonds won three NL MVPs, eight Gold Glove Awards, seven Silver Sluggers, had four 30-30 and one 40-40 seasons, and led the league in runs, HR, and RBI once, BB and OPS five times, and OBP four times. His 99.6 WAR through 1998 would rank 32nd all-time, giving Bonds an incredible Hall of Fame resume even if you choose to ignore his status as the all-time home run and walks leader, and his additional four MVP awards.
While Mussina was never the best pitcher in the game, he pitched his entire career in the offensive-minded AL East and won double-digit games every season from 1992-2008, including his first 20 win season in his final year in the bigs. A 5x All-Star and 7x Gold Glove Award Winner, Mussina finished his career with ranked 24th all-time in WAR for pitchers, 33rd with 270 wins, 20th in strikeouts with 2,813, and had a phenomenal .638 winning percentage, with 117 more career wins than losses. Although he never won a Cy Young Award, Mussina finished in the top six of voting nine times, first in 1992, and last in 2008, showing just how good he was over a long period of time.
Of all the players on my ballot, Kent is least likely to be enshrined in Cooperstown in the near future. Which is crazy to me, seeing as he may be the greatest hitting second baseman of all-time. The 2000 NL MVP, Kent has the most career home runs for a second baseman (377) the third most RBI (1518) 12th most runs and hits (1320 runs and 2461 hits; ten of twelve above him for each are Hall of Famers) the fourth most doubles with 560, and a solid career line of .290/.365/.500, the fifth highest career OPS at the position. Kent was not well liked by the media during his playing career, which has likely hurt his voting thus far. However, the fact that one of the greatest hitters ever at a position hasn’t crossed 20% of the vote is mind-blowing.
A Braves legend, Chipper will likely sail into the Hall of Fame on his first appearance on the ballot with over 90% of the vote. An 8x All-Star and the 1999 NL MVP, the switch-hitting Jones was the offensive centerpiece of the Braves fourteen straight NL East titles, finishing his career with 2726 hits 1619 runs, 549 2B, 468 HR, 1623 RBI, more walks than strikeouts, and outstanding marks of .303/.401/.529, all of which rank amongst the top of the third baseman leaderboards. Jones’ 85.0 WAR puts him at 51st all-time and is the sixth highest WAR of any third baseman to ever play the game.
One of baseball’s all-time good guys, Thome should join Jones in Cooperstown on his first appearance on the ballot following a career where he slugged 612 home runs, eighth all-time. Thome was remarkably consistent throughout his career, finishing with over 30 home runs twelve times, 100 RBI nine times, and 100 walks nine times, including six straight seasons with over 33 HR, 105 RBI, and 104 BB. A career .276/.402/.554 hitter, Thome finished his career with 72.9 WAR (84th all-time) 1,699 RBI (26th all-time) 1583 runs (51st all-time) 1,747 BB (7th all-time) and a .956 OPS, 18th all-time.
Now that Tim Raines is in the Hall of Fame, the sabermetric community will likely be throwing their support behind this Mariners’ legend. Despite having little defensive value due to serving as the Mariners primary DH from 1995-2004, Martinez still ranks 77th all-time amongst position players with 68.3 WAR. Many voters have penalized Martinez for serving as a DH; however, his career .312/.418/.515 slash is outstanding for a hitter, and are backed up by his 2247 hits, 309 HR, 1261 RBI, and 514 2B. A two-time batting champion, Martinez led the league in OBP three times and won five silver sluggers throughout his seven all-star seasons. With Martinez, the eye test is a big part of the equation, but when a hitter is so good he revolutionized the DH position, he deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame.
Schilling will be an interesting case seeing as he hasn’t made any friends with his political remarks since his retirement. And while his 216 wins (85th all-time) would be on the lower end for a Hall of Fame starter, he had a flat-out great all-around career. Schilling’s solid 3.46 ERA and 1.137 WHIP (52nd all-time) are backed by an 80.7 WAR for pitchers (26th all-time) 3,116 strikeouts (15th all-time) and a 4.383 K: BB ratio, 5th all-time. A three-time Cy-Young runner-up, Schilling led the league in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP twice, while pacing the league in K: BB ratio five times. A six-time all-star and three-time World Series Champion, Schilling is arguably the best postseason pitcher of all-time, winning NLCS and World Series MVP in a postseason career that saw him go 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 19 games.
Just Missed the Cut
Omar Vizquel: 1st year on the ballot
As great as Vizquel was defensively at shortstop, winning eleven Gold Glove Awards, his .272 AVG and .688 OPS show his lack of offensive ability throughout his career. It will be interesting if his 2877 hits compiled over 24 seasons will be enough combined with his glove work to get him into the Hall.
Fred McGriff: 9th year on ballot, 21.7% of vote in 2017
Had McGriff finished his career with seven more home runs, he would have sailed into Cooperstown a long time ago. Alas, he finished with only 493 home runs but coupled with a solid .294/.377/.509 career mark, 2490 hits, and 1550 RBI as a clean player in the steroid era, McGriff should gain support once he falls off the ballot and is voted on by the Veterans’ Club.
Billy Wagner: 3rd year on ballot, 10.2% of vote in 2017
A seven-time all-star with the sixth most saves of all-time with 422, Wagner should be the next relief pitcher in the Hall of Fame after Hoffman. Although never the best at his position, Wagner finished with over 30 saves in a season nine times and had an incredible 11.9 K/9.
