Week 11 of the NFL season features several intriguing matchups, including three rematches of previous Super Bowl matchups. In the Jets vs. Colts game, a rivalry dating back to Super Bowl III where Joe Namath famously guaranteed a Jets victory, New York is favored by 3.5 points at home. The Rams vs. Patriots game is another notable rematch, with Los Angeles favored by 4.5 points in this Week 11 clash. The final rematch features the Falcons taking on the Broncos (-2), a Super Bowl that saw John Elway’s final appearance 25 years ago.
While history is fun to reflect on, what matters most for your Week 11 NFL predictions are the teams’ current form and performance. Below, we highlight the latest NFL odds and spreads for Week 11, backed by expert insights from SportsLine’s advanced computer model, which has proven to be highly successful with NFL betting predictions.
The model, which runs 10,000 simulations of every game, is up more than $7,000 for $100 bettors on its top-rated picks since inception. It is currently riding a 17-7 streak for top-rated NFL picks in 2024, and its overall record on top-rated picks since 2017 stands at 197-136. The model has also ranked in the top 10 for straight-up NFL picks on NFLPickWatch for four of the past six years.
Now, let’s dive into the best NFL Week 11 predictions, where the model targets specific games to maximize returns.
Top Week 11 NFL Predictions
Titans (+6, 39.5) vs. Vikings
One of the model’s strongest Week 11 picks is backing Tennessee to cover the 6-point spread at home against Minnesota. Despite a rough season, the Titans have the NFL’s top-ranked total defense and pass defense, making it a tough matchup for Vikings QB Sam Darnold. Darnold has struggled with turnovers recently, leading the NFL with 13 turnovers and 10 interceptions. Tennessee’s Will Levis, on the other hand, is coming off his best game of the season, posting his highest completion percentage (78.26%) and a solid passer rating (127.4). With Minnesota projected for two turnovers, the Titans cover in almost 60% of the simulations.
Pick: Titans +6
Projected Score: Titans 20-17
Saints (-1.5, 44) vs. Browns
The model also strongly favors New Orleans (-1.5) to cover against Cleveland in what promises to be an exciting game. After a victory as underdogs in Darren Rizzi’s debut, the Saints are riding high. On the other hand, Cleveland enters off a bye week, but the extra rest hasn’t benefited them much lately, as they are just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games following a bye. Meanwhile, the Saints’ new weapon, former Bills receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, made a huge impact in their upset win over Atlanta, catching two touchdowns and adding another big play for 67 yards. The Browns’ defense, allowing 12.8 yards per completion (second-worst in the NFL), could struggle to stop the Saints’ big plays. New Orleans is projected to win by at least a touchdown, with the Over (44) hitting in almost 60% of simulations.
Pick: Saints -1.5
Projected Score: Saints 27-20
How to Make Week 11 NFL Picks
The model has analyzed all the Week 11 matchups, including some intriguing betting lines, and has pinpointed five teams with at least a 70% chance of winning outright. These picks could deliver a big payoff, so it’s essential to follow the model’s insights to maximize your returns. You can access every single pick for every game on the SportsLine platform.
Week 11 NFL Betting Odds & Picks
Here are the updated odds and predicted outcomes for all NFL Week 11 matchups:
- Commanders at Eagles (Thursday): PHI -4, Total 49.5 – Pick: Eagles 26-18
- Packers at Bears: GB -5.5, Total 40.5 – Pick: Packers
- Jaguars at Lions: DET -13.5, Total 47 – Pick: Lions
- Raiders at Dolphins: MIA -7.5, Total 44 – Pick: Dolphins
- Rams at Patriots: LAR -4.5, Total 43.5 – Pick: Rams
- Browns at Saints: NO -1.5, Total 44 – Pick: Saints
- Ravens at Steelers: BAL -3, Total 48.5 – Pick: Ravens
- Vikings at Titans: MIN -6, Total 39.5 – Pick: Titans
- Colts at Jets: NYJ -3.5, Total 43.5 – Pick: Jets
- Falcons at Broncos: DEN -2, Total 44 – Pick: Broncos
- Seahawks at 49ers: SF -6.5, Total 48 – Pick: 49ers
- Chiefs at Bills: BUF -2.5, Total 46 – Pick: Bills
- Bengals at Chargers: LAC -1.5, Total 48 – Pick: Bengals
- Texans at Cowboys (Monday): HOU -7.5, Total 42 – Pick: Texans
