In Week 10, our top five picks went 4-1 straight up, but we struggled against the spread, finishing 1-4. While the Baltimore Ravens held off the Cincinnati Bengals by just one point, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves in a tough contest with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Atlanta Falcons didn’t live up to expectations against the New Orleans Saints, and we were burned by a hook in the Detroit Lions’ win over the Houston Texans. At least the Los Angeles Chargers came through for us against the Tennessee Titans.
Looking ahead to Week 11, we’ve got some exciting matchups, including Russell Wilson’s perfect 3-0 record against the rival Ravens, a revenge game for Jameis Winston against his former team in New Orleans, and a thrilling AFC showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. If you haven’t signed up yet, check out BetMGM’s promo code to get started and make some money. Below are my picks and predictions for this week, with a big thanks to the CBS Sports research team for the insightful data.
Top-five picks ATS record: 23-26-1
Overall ATS record: 67-82-3
Straight-up record: 95-57
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
The Bears have made a major change by firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, which isn’t surprising given their struggles on offense this season. They haven’t scored a touchdown since October 27! Chicago’s lost three in a row, while the Packers are well-rested after their bye week. Green Bay has dominated the Bears recently, winning the last 10 matchups by an average margin of 12.7 points. This is a prime chance for the Packers to keep building momentum, especially against a team that’s struggled offensively. I’ll take Green Bay to cover the 5.5-point spread.
Pick: Packers -5.5
Projected Score: Packers 24-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-14)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Betting on large point spreads can be risky, but sometimes the right favorite is worth the bet. This matchup features the biggest spread of the season, but for good reason. The Jaguars will be without Trevor Lawrence, and backup Mac Jones has been ineffective as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Lions have been dominant, leading the league in point differential (+113). Detroit is 4-0 against the spread as double-digit favorites this season, and I expect them to keep that streak alive with a convincing win here.
Pick: Lions -14
Projected Score: Lions 35-14
Cleveland Browns (-1) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
Jameis Winston gets a chance at revenge against his former team in New Orleans, and you know he’ll be motivated. The Browns have been a bit inconsistent this season, but I trust their defense—especially with Myles Garrett leading the charge. The Saints have had their own issues, and although they opened as favorites, the line has moved in Cleveland’s favor. If Winston plays smart and the Browns contain Marquez Valdes-Scantling, I expect Cleveland to edge out a narrow win.
Pick: Browns -1
Projected Score: Browns 23-21
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Dolphins defense was impressive on Monday night, shutting down Matthew Stafford and the Rams completely. They now face a Raiders team that has struggled mightily on offense, ranking near the bottom of the league in total yards. Las Vegas hasn’t won since September, and Miami’s defense looks like it could be a turning point for the Dolphins. I’ll back Miami to cover the 7.5-point spread at home.
Pick: Dolphins -7.5
Projected Score: Dolphins 22-13
Houston Texans (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN and fubo, try for free)
The Texans have had a rough patch recently, but they’re getting star wideout Nico Collins back this week after missing five games. Houston has been solid with Collins in the lineup, boasting a 4-1 record when he’s active. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are 0-4 straight up and against the spread at home this season, including a brutal loss last week. This is a perfect opportunity for C.J. Stroud and the Texans to bounce back with a win. I’ll take the Texans to cover the 7.5-point spread.
Pick: Texans -7.5
Projected Score: Texans 26-13
Other Week 11 Picks:
- Commanders (+3.5) 24-23 over Eagles
- Vikings (-6) 25-17 over Titans
- Rams (-4.5) 26-20 over Patriots
- Jets 23-20 over Colts (+4)
- Ravens (-3) 27-21 over Steelers
- Broncos (-2.5) 28-21 over Falcons
- 49ers 28-24 over Seahawks (+6.5)
- Chiefs (+2.5) 27-24 over Bills
- Bengals (+1.5) 26-23 over Chargers
