This is the latest in a series, offering my opinions on what struggling teams should do this offseason in order to turn their fortunes around.
There’s no team that struggled more in 2016 than the Cleveland Browns. Of course, part of that was by design. The new front office fancies itself the NFL’s answer to Moneyball or Sam Hinkie’s “Process” in taking a long-term approach to team building.
Let’s see the next step in that process:
STEP ONE: PUNTING ON THE QB SOLUTION
Thanks to their best weekend of the season, the Browns not only won a game but also retained control of the #1 overall pick. Almost always, a QB-needy team will select the best QB with that #1 pick. This year may be – and should be – the exception.
Right now, the Browns have so many holes in their roster that any QB they draft is bound to struggle. You’d risk placing that young signal-caller in the line of fire, possibly getting him injured or shell-shocked as a result. Simply put, a QB is not in a good position to succeed with the current Browns roster.
Now, if there was an absolute no-brainer QB sitting there at #1, you ignore that, draft him, and figure out the rest later. The Colts are still putting the pieces together around Andrew Luck, but at the end of the day, they’re still happy they have him under center. But at the moment, a no-brainer Andrew Luck isn’t sitting there in the draft. In fact, there’s no clear top QB at all.
The Browns would be wise to skip picking a quarterback early in this year’s draft.
The hottest riser in the class is North Carolina’s junior Mitch Trubisky, coming off a sparkling year with 68.9% completion, 28 TDs, and only 4 ints. Of course, that’s Trubisky’s only year as a starter. The history of one-year starters transitioning into the NFL isn’t great, and makes Trubisky more of a risk than you’d want at #1. Another candidate – Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer – has the physical tools, but he also has limited experience. And frankly, Kizer hasn’t been very good when he has played – “leading” Notre Dame to a 4-8 season.
The one candidate that can make an argument is Clemson’s Deshaun Watson. He’s had years of starting experience (albeit in a spread) and has enough athletic and arm talent to be a possible franchise QB. He’s been picked apart by scouts lately, but he’s largely fulfilled his high expectations as a super recruit: contending for Heisman trophies and national titles. Turnovers have been a major problem, but if he can dominate the college playoff, beat Ohio State, and then somehow beat Alabama’s NFL-caliber defense, then he’ll be firmly in the #1 pick conversation again.
But right now, there are too many questions about Watson as well for me to feel comfortable pulling the trigger on him either, given the transcendent talent on the other side of the ball in Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett. Garrett’s the best pass rushing prospect since Von Miller, and you can make the argument that he may be even better as a prospect than Miller; he doesn’t have quite the same bend but he has superior size.
In fact, I’m not just recommending passing on a QB with the #1 pick. I’m recommending passing on a QB with ALL their high picks (and the Browns could have 5 of them in the top 65). Every time you take a halfhearted gamble on a QB, then you’re missing out on an offensive lineman, or linebacker, or corner, or other position that can help your team. (just ask the Jets.) Unless you’re confident in your QB pick, load up other positions first.
In the meantime, young Cody Kessler can serve as the starter. Perhaps the smart and accurate passer can overcome his physical limitations and prove to be the long-term answer. If not, he’ll be a solid backup, aided by more experience.
STEP TWO: ROLLING SOME PICKS BACK
The opportunity to have the #1 pick doesn’t come along often, even for historically bad teams like the Browns. Heck, they almost lost it this year. So if the team passes on a QB at #1 this year, there’s no guarantee that they’ll have the #1 pick again in 2018.
And there’s no guarantee that the 2018 draft class will be any stronger than this year’s. UCLA stud Josh Rosen is already getting picked apart, a la Deshaun Watson, and would need a strong 2017 to keep his top draft status.
That said, if the Browns pass on a QB this year, they need to ensure they’re in a position to nab the top signal caller in 2018. The best way to do that is grabbing extra draft picks for 2018. They have a boatload this year, so they can slide some of those down to 2018. There’s a good chance they can trade your 2nd round pick for a 1st rounder next year (that’s typically the trade value math that teams employ).
If the Browns can enter 2018 with two first rounders, that will give them wiggle room to move up to #1 if need be. If the draft looks shaky, the free agent market may provide some answers, as both Jimmy Garoppolo and A.J. McCarron are slated to be free agents (presuming they don’t get traded and sign extensions elsewhere.)
STEP THREE: LETTING A HIGH PROFILE FREE AGENT GO
The Browns have plenty of cap space, so they shouldn’t be in a position to make “tough decisions” when it comes to retaining their own free agents.
That said, I still would recommend prudence here. The Browns have two major free agents that would give me pause about re-signing: LB Jamie Collins and WR Terrelle Pryor.
Letting Jamie Collins go would be an embarrassment for the organization after trading for him in mid-season. To be honest, he was probably overrated in New England, and may not be worth a huge salary. On the bright side, the Patriots’ PR machine bashed Collins on the way out, and may have hurt his free agent stock as a result. Given that, he may not come at a massive cost. Presuming he can be retained on a reasonable salary (that values him as a good but not great starter), I’d bring him back.
Pryor, on the other hand, is the marquee name that I’d probably let walk. Of all the moves that I’m recommending in this series — I predict this could be the least popular of them all. After all, Pryor’s looked great in his first full year as a starting WR. Despite all the QB issues on the team, he may cross 1000 yards. Physically speaking, he has great talent as well. In theory, he’ll get better and better and become a legitimate star at the position.
Personally, I’m skeptical about that, just like his former teammate Brian Hartline is. Pryor is one of a series of “breakout” performers that may struggle to repeat their unexpected success once teams have an entire offseason to game plan for them. Michael Vick (in the Eagles’ era) is the best example of that, but the Browns have a pair of their own in Jordan Cameron and Gary Barnidge.
In sports, a mantra of mine would be: never pay a premium for a player until they have repeat success. Pryor’s been good — for one year. To me, there’s still a major risk of a regression. He’s already slowing down at the tail end of 2016. Pryor may turn out to be a superstar — but I’m not 100% convinced. If someone wants to pay him like one before he’s proven it, I would let him go.
STEP FOUR: DRAFTING FOR DEFENSE
The Browns may be a long way away from contention, but they’re not too far away from creating a good young defense. In fact, I’d utilize all my high picks on that one side of the ball. Here would be the positions to target:
Edge rusher: Presumptive #1 pick Myles Garrett can fill that role of an OLB who moves to DE in your nickel packages. It’s a role that the team had hoped Emmanuel Ogbah could have filled, but Obgah’s naturally a big and somewhat stiff-hipped DE. Drafting Garrett could allow Ogbah to keep his weight up and focus on playing DE in their sub packages. The pair would be great bookend rushers on third down.
Middle linebacker: Normally you wouldn’t put a premium on a Mike, but the Browns will have to seriously consider drafting Alabama’s Reuben Foster in the top 10 (with their second first-rounder via Philly.) Foster’s an all-around stud and a future Pro Bowler. If you pass on him, Ohio State’s Raekwon McMillan is an option in Round 2, and Vanderbilt’s Zach Cunningham could be available in Round 3. Both project as good starters.
Safety: I’d tie this position to your MLB search. Both positions usually get ignored in the top 10, but both have a possible Pro Bowler: this one being LSU’s Jamal Adams. I’d debate between him and Foster in Round 1. If you pass on Adams, you can find a solid safety like Florida’s Marcus Maye in Round 3. Like Adams, Maye’s known for being strong in both facets of the game. He’d jump into the starting lineup almost immediately.
Corner: Joe Haden can’t cover all the WRs by himself, and needs some help here. Luckily for the Browns, the draft market could be rich at corner, depending on how many underclassmen declare. In fact, the team can wait until Round 2 to find a future starter here. Iowa’s Desmond King would be a dream, but if he’s gone, USC’s Adoree Jackson’s an intriguing consolation prize. He’s the Pac 10’s answer to Jabrill Peppers, lining up at corner, receiver, running back, and return man. His cover skills may need some refining, but he’s an electric playmaker who could be a star down the road. And unlike Peppers, he doesn’t cost you a top 10 pick.
So in theory, the Browns trade away a 2nd round for future picks, and STILL be looking at a draft that yields: OLB Myles Garrett (R1), LB Reuben Foster (R1), CB Adoree Jackson (R2), and DB Marcus Maye (R3). You can mix and match those (DB Adams in Round 1 and LB Cunningham in Round 3?), but at the end of the day, you’re adding a rare influx of talent.
Conclusion
This blueprint is an exercise in delayed gratification. Not only are you waiting on a QB, you’re trading away some picks, and letting your only 2016 feel good story Terrelle Pryor walk away.
But there’s a method for this madness, and it’s called patience. If the Browns focus their entire 2017 draft on defense, that side of the ball should be set up well for the future. Most likely the team will still be bad (given the lack of offensive playmaking), but that’s part of the plan. You’ll enter 2018 with a good young defense, and more high picks.
Then in 2018, you can turn your attention to that neglected offense and find your QB of the future. By 2019, those young pieces should start to coalesce together. It’s a “Process,” to be sure, but one with light at the end of the tunnel.
