The playoffs are here and we should all be soaking up every minute of that. However, there are 14 unlucky franchises that are missing out on the fun and already looking forward to next year. With them (and their fans) in mind, this series will take a look ahead and help lay out the priorities for this offseason.
Today, we’re going to be looking at our next president’s (/s) team:
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Even owner Mark Cuban has acknowledged that it makes sense for his beloved Dallas Mavericks to [shark] “tank” and land themselves a top 5 pick.
The problem: the Mavs’ coaching and culture are too good for that.
Rick Carlisle is arguably a top 5 coach in the NBA and will squeeze out the best with whatever roster he’s working with. The team finished 33-49, a decent record given their talent. That’s a nice job, but it actually leaves the team stuck in that dreaded danger zone of mediocrity where the playoffs and the #1 pick seem equally as far away.
To get out of that rut, the Mavs will have to utilize their assets — their #9 pick, and that said culture and organizational reputation — to rebuild.
(1) Lock up your lockdown defender
Okay, so maybe “lockdown” defender is a stretch, but the Mavs’ midseason acquisition of Nerlens Noel was a masterstroke, in my mind.
With their big man glut, the Sixers never fully embraced Noel as a foundational piece. I would. Noel offers you everything that you can reasonably ask for in a modern defensive center: he’s incredibly mobile and able to hang on switches. He can defend the rim (1.8 blocks per 36 minute last year). He also has extremely fast hands that he utilizes to jab the ball (2.2 steals per 36). He lacks any discernible offensive skill aside from rim running and dunking, but plenty of All-NBA centers these days have built their careers on the same.
The Sixers traded Noel partly because they were worried about how big his contract may get this offseason when he’ll become a restricted free agent. Spoiler alert: it’s going to be big. In a world where Ian Mahinmi and Bismack Biyombo get $17 million a year, Noel will get more: he’s a younger and better version of both. There are some question marks about his attitude and work ethic, but barring him being a complete ass, there’s nothing that would prevent me from offering a 23-year-old center with his attributes a long-term contract.
(2) Realize who your diamond in the rough really is
The Mavs had a nice season from the two unheralded point guards that they basically found on the scrap heap: Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Both of them gave the team quality minutes, and both of them shot 40% from beyond the arc.
However, of the two, I’d only trust Curry as a key rotational piece going forward. For one, he’s taller and better at defense. George Karl actually considered him his best on-ball defender on the Kings (which may not be saying much, but still.) The stats bear that out, where Curry only charts as a -0.01 defensive impact, according to ESPN real +/-. Even if he’s not a “good” defender, he’s at least average.
Yogi Ferrell, on the other hand, struggles more on that end. He’s a smaller guard without elite athletic traits. That same real +/- lists him as a -1.21 on the defensive side. More importantly, Yogi Ferrell’s hot shooting from three might not indicate that he’s a marvelous offensive player on its own. He didn’t shoot nearly as well from 2-point range as Seth Curry, and he doesn’t draw fouls, either. In terms of three-point shooting the two are close (Curry at 42.5%, Ferrell at 40.3%), but in terms of true shooting percentage, the gap is larger (Curry at 60.1%, Ferrell at 53.3%).
Ferrell’s on a cheap team option for next year, so the team should pick it up without much thought. However, I would warn against considering Ferrell your PG of the future, or even a rotational player going forward. He’s a spot that the team should be looking to upgrade.
That upgrade may come in the NBA Draft. Barring a jump into the top 3, the Mavs will be selecting at the #9 pick. In this draft, that may not be so bad after all. There are a few point guards that may slip down into that range — primarily N.C. State’s Dennis Smith Jr. and Belgian-born Frank Ntilikina.
Ntilikina, in particular, would be a logical fit on the Mavericks. He’s obviously raw, but he has physical traits that you can’t teach. He’s athletic and 6’5″, suggesting that he may be a “plus” defender down the road. Simply put, he has more “upside” than someone like Ferrell. Now, those raw traits don’t always work out — you would have thought the big Emmanuel Mudiay would have been a two-way star by now — but you have to hope Rick Carlisle can coax the most out of Ntikilina and make him his own version of a player like Dennis Schroder. Ntilkina is probably 2-3 years away from being starter ready, but that’s what a rebuild is all about.
(3) Let Mark Cuban land a shark
Unlike other “rebuilding” teams, the Dallas Mavericks franchise has a genuine shot to lure in a superstar free agent. The coach is very well respected, the organization is first class, and there is some young talent here to work with. The lack of state taxes can’t hurt, either.
If the Mavs do indeed keep Nerlens Noel, as suggested, they’ll have two key pieces going forward. Noel can be your defensive-minded center. Harrison Barnes can be your 2nd banana, capable of playing multiple positions on offense and defense. That’s two-thirds of a good young core. Of course, the team’s still lacking a signature star who can be their #1 option.
Finding that superstar in this free agent class could be tough. I actually think Dallas would make sense for someone like Blake Griffin, should he want to abandon the Clippers’ sinking ship. In Dallas, Griffin could handle the ball and run the offense in a way he never will be able to next to Chris Paul. Put Griffin on the Mavs, and he may put up MVP-caliber stats like 25-10-7. Of course, that awkwardness with DeAndre Jordan may have left a sour taste in Griffin’s mouth, but the point stands that Dallas should be a destination (or at least, a consideration) for stars.
2018 may present a more legitimate opportunity to land that big fish. Disgruntled superstar Paul George is slated to be a free agent then, and ’18 free agent Russell Westbrook may be disgruntled by then as well. Other free agents who may price themselves out of their current markets may be Avery Bradley or Zach LaVine (maybe one of them establishes themselves as a genuine star by then.) In Dallas, they can have solid complementary talents around them, and the ball in their hands. It’s a great situation for a prospective superstar.
Given all that, the Mavs don’t need to utilize a traditional rebuild that would consist of high pick after high pick after high pick. Their goal in 2017 should be establishing the foundation and setting the stage for a major splash come 2018. If Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel can prove to be a nice 1-2 punch (or more like a 2-3 punch in need of a #1), a superstar may realize the merits of the organization and jump into these waters.
