The playoffs are here and we should all be soaking up every minute of that. However, there are 14 unlucky franchises that are missing out on the fun and already looking forward to next year. With them (and their fans) in mind, this series will take a look ahead and help lay out the priorities for this offseason.
I’m excited to get to the playoff teams that recently got eliminated (especially the Clippers and Pacers), but we’ll finish off the lottery teams first. We’re actually at the end of the road with those lottery teams, with our final entry:
DENVER NUGGETS
The Nuggets found a true building block in center Nikola Jokic.
Ever since Denver traded their superstar Carmelo Anthony in 2011, it feels like the Nuggets’ signature identity has been to house a hodgepodge of pretty good players.
That method has sometimes worked (peaking in the Western Conference Finals in 2009) and sometimes not (with Brian Shaw‘s 30-52 record in ’13-14 as the low water mark.) But it’s rare in the NBA to go that long of a stretch without a marquee franchise player to call your own.
Well, times have changed; the Nuggets have one now. How did this happen? A blockbuster trade? No. A splashy free agent signing? No. A #1 pick? Not quite. Try a # 41 pick. A doughy Serbian kid and no-name whom we’ve come to know as the “Joker,” Nikola Jokic.
Even if Jokic isn’t a national name yet, basketball fans realize how great he is. The stats are so good that they almost defy belief: 16.7 points per game (on 57.8% shooting), 9.8 rebounds, and 4.9 assists — in only 27.9 minutes a night. It’s no wonder that advanced stats routinely rank Jokic as one of the best players in the world.
Better yet, Jokic is only 22 years old, and on a bargain contract of $1.4 million next year and $1.4 million (team option) the year after. He’s a legitimate superstar and a cornerstone for the team going forward. Let’s see how they may build around him:
(1) Stop shuffling the deck
A blue collar kid from Queens, coach Mike Malone has always been known as a defensive specialist in the NBA. You get the feeling that, if he could conjure up a team from scratch, he’d go with attack dog defenders and suffocate opponents on that end of the floor.
Unfortunately (or fortunately) for Malone, that’s not the team he has right now. You can get the sense that Malone struggled with this particular bunch of talent, shuffling back and forth and trying to find the right combination, before eventually settling on Nikola Jokic as his key piece (even if that meant trading away the promising Jusuf Nurkic.)
Heading into Year 3, the time for experimentation has ended. The team’s improved to a 40-42 record with the playoffs in their sights, so the Nuggets need to start winning as many games as possible right out of the gate. Malone’s been around this group for a while now, so he should know whom to play (and whom not to play) to make that happen.
Sadly, that “whom not to play” group consists of young Emmanuel Mudiay. I happened to love Mudiay in the draft — I would have taken him #3 ahead of Jahlil Okafor (not too bad…) and Kristaps Porzingis (yikes). But that Mudiay love may have been built on a faulty premise. Like many NBA fans, I always thought shooting was teachable. We see Kawhi Leonard and others as an example of that, after all. However, we’re seeing, even more, examples of young players with broken shots who have not improved. Ricky Rubio‘s been lauded for finally cracking the 40% mark from the field. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Justise Winslow, and Stanley Johnson are still bricking shot after shot. And Emmanuel Mudiay may be worse than all of them. Last season, he shot 31.5% from three, and an anemic 37.7% from the field.
As much as I loved Mudiay’s upside, you can’t play someone like that. Advanced stats has routinely ranked him as one of the worst players in the league (according to real +/-, he’s a -1.50 on offense and -2.38 on defense.) It’s no coincidence that the Nuggets struggled early last year while playing Mudiay 30+ minutes a night and only started improving once Jameer Nelson got more time. The Nuggets need to suck it up and shelve Mudiay until he’s ready to contribute; the team’s too good to throw minutes away.
They don’t have to throw minutes away, either, because Mudiay’s teammate Jamal Murray (a #7 overall pick himself) may be further along in his development. Known as a sharpshooter out of college, Murray didn’t exactly light it up as a rookie (40.4% from the field, 33.4% from three), but the tools are there for him to be a good shooter as soon as next year. He shot 88.3% from the line (albeit on 1.5 attempts per game) and started to find his footing late in the year, improving from 39.2% to 42.3% from the field after the All-Star Break. He should be a net positive as soon as next year.
Murray’s not a pure point guard, in the traditional sense, but he may actually be a good fit with Nikola Jokic. I see him as a C.J. McCollum type, as a player capable of handling the ball but also playing off. If you give Jokic the ball, Murray can spot up and be a great catch and shoot option outlet. The Murray+Jokic combo is the core of this team going forward, with both under 22 years old. They need to play as much as possible together to make that pairing gel.
(2) Double down on your playoff chances
The Nuggets have cap room this offseason, but they also have two free agents who may get pricey: Danilo Gallinari (who’s likely to decline his team option) and center Mason Plumlee.
Even if the contracts swell, I’d bite the bullet and re-sign both.
Re-signing Gallinari’s an easier case to make. He’s still an effective player and one who pairs nicely with their young core. Gallinari’s ability to play SF or PF allows the team some flexibility, although as he gets older we may see him as a stretch 4 exclusively. Although Gallo’s already 28, he has a specific skill set — height and shooting — that tend to age well. I’d expect him to be an effective NBA player for the next 4 years. Given that, I’d keep him in the fold. Because Jokic and Murray are still on cheap contracts, overpaying him isn’t the end of the world.
The same can be said for Mason Plumlee, who will most likely get a contract that leaves NBA fans shaking their heads, a la his brother Miles’ deal with the Bucks (now Hornets). But don’t let the family line confuse you: Mason’s the better of the two. The difference isn’t exactly as pronounced as Cody Zeller – Tyler Zeller, but Mason has quicker feet and much better passing skills. Miles has never cracked 1.0 assist in a season, while Mason flirted with 4.0+ before the trade this year.
Mason may be bashed by NBA fans because he’s not as good as Jusuf Nurkic (who thrived as his replacement in Portland), but he’s still a solid rotation player. Those passing skills actually make him a good filler for Jokic when he hits the bench. As long as the deal isn’t ridiculous, I’d bring him back.
(3) “Go fish” with your nonessentials
The key pieces that I envision for the Nuggets next year would be: Jamal Murray, Danilo Gallinari, Nikola Jokic, with Gary Harris, Mason Plumlee, and Will Barton all slotted in for heavy minutes.
Notice two names I didn’t mention? Veterans Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried. Both players are solid in their own right but are not ones that feel like instrumental pieces to a playoff run. In fact, I’d “go fish” and shop them around. Why would you want to deal away solid players like that? Because, I suspect, their trade value outweighs their actual value.
The flaws in Kenneth Faried’s game have been well-documented lately, as the popular fan favorite has become a punching bag. Faried’s not a bad player, but he may have been miscast as a star. He’s more of a rebounder/energy guy off the bench. As a starter, his lack of range on offense and lack of length on defense leaves him exposed. Advanced stats suggest he’s a net negative, so if the team can get something of value for him, it’s worth it.
The same can be said about Wilson Chandler. Chandler’s actually a decent all-around player, but he doesn’t excel at any one thing in particular. He’s also an “old” 29, given his injury history.
Fortunately, Faried and Chandler both have reasonable contracts by today’s standards. Faried will make $12.9 million next year and $13.7 the following; while Chandler is slated for $12 million next year and has a player option for $12.8 the year after. Those are tradeable contracts. The team’s presumably been trying to trade them already, but as this contract gets closer to expiring and the cap gets higher, it’s more possible now than ever.
Can the Nuggets actually get any assets for Faried and Chandler? Maybe. The names “Kenneth Faried” and “Wilson Chandler” still have some cache and name value, even if savvier GMs will notice that they haven’t been all that great lately.
But it’s never smart to trade with a savvy GM anyway. I’d target some franchises who are desperate to “win now” and think that Faried and Chandler are the missing pieces to do it.
Among the teams that may fit that bill: CHA, CHI, DET, IND, LAC, MEM, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, POR, and SAC. Chances are, most of them aren’t interested, but that’s a decent sized Rolodex to play with. The Nuggets can float Chandler and/or Faried, with an eye on a return that would net them a younger player for their core, or at the very least, some draft picks in return. If the team can land a legitimate star, I wouldn’t have any problem throwing in Gary Harris or Will Barton either; those two would add some real value to a package.
