The playoffs have been entertaining so far, but there are 24 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but look forward to 2018. And, naturally, those teams are waiting with bated breath for advice from some weirdo typing at home like me. Fear not, Green Bay, you’re up next.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Once Aaron Rodgers went down, the Packers season was essentially over.
For a team with title aspiration, the 2017 season turned out to be a bitter disappointment. Personally, I was most surprised / most disappointed by the play of Brett Hundley after Aaron Rodgers went down. After two+ years in the system, I would have thought the talented Hundey would be able to keep the team afloat and perhaps even thrive. He did not.
In fact, it makes you question the “system” around him that’s been so successful over these years. Clearly, Green Bay thought the same and made some major changes.
Step one: do a house cleaning
The Green Bay Packers have always had one of the most stable front offices and coaching staffs in the league. For the first time, they faced the concept of major shakeups and took on that challenge head-on. There was a whole Game of Thrones battle for the GM position, but it’s difficult for us at home to evaluate front office execs.
We can evaluate coaches more easily, so I went into a deeper analysis and grading of their new coordinator hires here. TL;DR – the Packers did a very good job to secure two experienced lieutenants in former head coaches Joe Philbin and Mike Pettine. Pettine, in particular, should breath fresh life into a defense that had gotten stale.
Step two: protect Aaron Rodgers up front
Throughout his career, Aaron Rodgers has stared down an army of pass rushers like Luke Skywalker’s hologram. More often than not, he can whirl out of that and make magic happen. However, it’s still led to a lot of sacks over the years as well –especially compared to fellow Hall of Fame QBs like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
Consider this: Peyton Manning took 303 sacks over 266 regular season games. Aaron Rodgers has taken more sacks already (363) in over a HUNDRED fewer games (149). The sack percentage per attempt are even more extreme — 3.1% for Manning, 6.9% for Rodgers.
As Rodgers ages (he’s now 34 years old), the Packers can’t keep playing with fire like that or else Rodgers may fade out as well. Reuniting with Philbin (an OL coach by trade) helps to some degree, but better talent up front would be even better. The Packers’ tackles are solid, but their guard/center combo is either old (Jahri Evans) are not particularly effective (Cory Linsley, Lane Taylor).
The draft is always a safe place to add some interior line talent. Guard/centers come cheaply and can make an immediate contribution, as division rival Minnesota saw with Ohio State center Pat Elflein last season. The Packers have an outside chance to select the draft’s elite guard — Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson — if he slips down their pick at # 14, but more likely than not their investment would come in R2 or R3. Among the possible adds there would be: Ohio State’s Billy Price, UTEP’s Will Hernandez, and Georgia’s Isaiah Wynn. All three project as Day One starters at guard.
If the interior line improves, the running game should improve as well, which would take additional pressure off Rodgers’ banged-up body.
Step three: give Mike Pettine some new toys to play with on defense
New DC Mike Pettine doesn’t have a wildly different scheme than Dom Capers, so the team doesn’t need to overhaul the roster to fit his system. Of course, a little extra talent would be appreciated anyway.
The Packers’ sturdy young interior linebackers — Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez — played fairly well, but more help is needed for their pass defense. In fact, that’s by far the biggest weakness of this unit. The team allowed opponents to pass for 30 TDs against 11 interceptions, with a 102.0 QB rating, 7.9 yards per attempt, and a sparkling 67.8% completion percentage. They essentially made their opponents into MVP candidates. Given that, it’s no wonder the team finally kicked Dom Capers to the curb.
Mike Pettine learned the ropes from Rex Ryan, who always built his schemes around top-flight corners like Darrelle Revis. In theory, that star CB can lock up his man, and allow more flexibility and creativity with the rest of the lineup.
Ever since they let Casey Hayward out of the building, the Packers’ haven’t had that star CB. Perhaps last year’s R2 pick Kevin King can become that star (he has a big frame and some upside) but that’s not a given. I’d consider adding another corner to this group as well.
If the team invests one of their top picks in a corner, there are some options to consider. Ohio State’s CB Denzel Ward doesn’t have great size at 5’10”, but he’s a quick-twitch athlete who holds up well in man to man. There are also a pair of seniors who had breakout seasons — Iowa’s Joshua Jackson (8 interceptions this season) and Alabama’s Levi Wallace (coming off a monster year with 48 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 interceptions). Both have ball skills and good size at 6’0″+, but both are “one-year wonders” which always gives you some pause.
In fact, most rookie corners struggle. This is a team built to win NOW, so they may not have much patience to develop another young corner. Given that, the team can consider spending their free agent money on a corner instead. That’s not usually the Packers’ “style,” but clearly they’re changing their style this year.
Among the options here would be the Rams’ Trumaine Johnson and the Raiders’ T.J. Carrie, both in their primes at 27. Trumaine Johnson is especially intriguing to me. PFF graded him as having an off year, but he’s a big athletic corner at 6’2″ who reminds you some of Stephon Gilmore – the Pats’ splashy acquisition from last season. Like Gilmore, he’s on the “outs” with his team and may appreciate going to a conference rival with a chance to win it all.
The bottom line
As long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, the Packers are going to win 10 games and sneak into the playoffs. However, they’re not going to win in the playoffs unless Mike Pettine can take this defense to the next level.
