The Texans season effectively ended with the injury to DeShaun Watson.
The playoffs are still underway (with two games today!) but there are 24 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but read Reddit and dream of 2018. With that in mind, here are some humble suggestions for their offseason.
These are my two cents but submit your own ideas below. If you’re a Texans fan who watches every snap, your opinion will have even more credibility than the rest of us.
HOUSTON TEXANS
The Texans are an example of why some kids turn “injuries off” on their video game franchise modes. What could have been a promising season for Houston derailed quickly and led to a 4-12 record.
How does Houston get back on track? Let’s take a closer look.
Step one: check the egos at the door
It’s no secret that coach Bill O’Brien and GM Rick Smith were clashing behind the scenes, with O’Brien ultimately winning that battle and proving to be the true Highlander.
However, “ego” has been a common theme for this Texans’ leadership in more ways than one. O’Brien is one of the few coaches in the league (Hue Jackson being another) that doesn’t employ an offensive coordinator or top-flight offensive assistants, a decision that’s hurt the team. Playcallers like BOB don’t need a traditional offensive coordinator, but a “run game specialist” (like the Redskins have with Bill Callahan or the Ravens with Greg Roman) would help unstick a clogged up facet of their game.
The Texans have also been stubborn when it comes to their draft picks. The team selected QB/WR Braxton Miller with a valuable pick in R3, despite very little experience or production at WR (he converted as a senior and had less than 350 yards.) Turns out, Miller wasn’t ready to contribute at all, with a measly 99 yards (on 28 targets) as a rookie. He didn’t fare much better as a sophomore with 162 yards. Miller plays quite a bit (when healthy) but hasn’t proven to be a meaningful contributor. DeAndre Hopkins could certainly use another threat as a 3rd WR or TE to take the pressure off, and the Texans need to provide him that rather than try to “make Braxton Miller happen.”
Guard Xavier Su’a-Filo is another example. A promising R2 pick, he’s struggled mightily every step of the way. Yet, the Texans continued to start him game after game, to their own detriment. This isn’t college. This isn’t the D-League. The Texans need to put their best players out there to make their playoff push. Given the struggles of Su’a-Filo, you can understand how GM/coach clashes may happen.
Step two: count on a regression (in a good way) on defense
The 2016 Houston Texans were fierce defensively, and most expected that to continue under new coordinator Mike Vrabel. It did not. In fact, the pass defense struggled badly, allowing 30 TDs against 11 interceptions and a QB rating of 99.5.
Vrabel’s gotten some blame for that (and seen his rising star dull some as a result), but truly this was an injury based problem. J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus missed the majority of the season, leaving Jadeveon Clowney as the last man standing. Clowney is great, but he can’t generate an entire pass rush alone. He registered 9.5 sacks. The next highest Texan collected 3.
Provided Watt and Mercilus return, this defense isn’t broken. It should be fine, and even a top 10 unit again. I’d even bring back free agent CB Jonathan Joseph on a short-term deal; he’s 33 and soon 34, but he’s still an effective player.
The only real changing of the guard I’d make revolves around ILB Brian Cushing. Cushing’s always fascinating to watch when it comes to Mic’d up segments or urine tests, but his starting days are behind him. At 31, he’s been outplayed by his rookie replacement Zach Cunningham. Cutting Cushing would save $8.5 million and represents one of the easiest roster decisions on the team.
Step three: count on a regression (in a bad way) on offense
When rookie QB Deshaun Watson played, he lit the league on fire with 19 touchdown passes in only 7 games. Given that, you may presume that this offense is all set.
It’s not.
Watson’s a very promising talent, but stats suggest that touchdown rate is unsustainable. PFF graded him as a mediocre QB, on par with Mitchell Trubisky. And while I don’t buy that, I don’t want to balloon Watson’s expectations too unrealistically. I don’t think he’s ready to step right back in and sling 35 touchdowns or be a top 5 QB. But even if Watson returns and performs like a top 15 QB (or even top 20) that’s a good step for a sophomore, and would allow him to chase Top 5 status eventually. However, the Texans need to acknowledge that he’s going to need help to get there.
The running game would be a nice ally for a young QB to have if the team can figure out how to fix it. They signed Lamar Miller based on his explosive speed, but Miller’s gotten very few opportunities to show it. In fact, he busted off only ONE run of 20+ yards — in 238 attempts. That’s frighteningly low.
Miller’s struggles in the run game — and my concerns about the passing game — tend to come down to one common factor. The offensive line.
The Texans may have the worst o-line in the entire league. PFF grades usually mark “70” as a bar for a decent and playable starter. Of the five Texans’ linemen to close the season, none graded as high as “50.”
Center Nick Martin, a R2 pick in 2016 and Zack Martin’s brother, should come back and provide help, but that’s not enough. The team needs to keep investing heavily in reshaping this line, in free agency and the draft. Without a R1 pick due to the Watson deal, they can still find talent later on. Mississippi State OT Martinas Rankin may fall that far, as may Western Michigan’s Chukwuma Okorafor. Both are legit late R1 talents that may slip due to some solid depth at the position.
The bottom line
The Texans should bounce back in 2018 based on health alone. But the idea that they’re going to have an easy road to the playoffs in the AFC South isn’t true anymore. The competition has gotten stiffer, so Houston’s going to have to step their game up to keep pace.
