The playoffs are here and we should all be soaking up every minute of that. However, there are 14 unlucky franchises that are missing out on the fun and already looking forward to next year. With them (and their fans) in mind, this series will take a look ahead and help lay out the priorities for this offseason.
Today, we’re looking at a marquee franchise with more recent highlights on TMZ than ESPN:
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The Lakers need to figure out what they’re going to do with D’Angelo Russell.
The Los Angeles Lakers are the best example of why this entire exercise is a little silly and premature. After all, we don’t even know if they own their own top 3 pick yet. If that pick falls down to #4 (which is a 53% chance) then it will convey to the Philadelphia 76ers. That would change EVERYTHING, right? The entire landscape and future of the franchise!
Well, not really.
Right now the Lakers are amassing young talent, with an eye to add another prospect in the top 3 this year. However, if they keep their pick this year, that means they’ll automatically lose their pick next year as a condition of that same trade. Conversely, if they lose their pick this year (disaster!), they’ll retain their pick next year. Oh. That’s not so bad.
Presuming these young pup Lakers are terrible again, that 2018 pick will be in that top 5 again. The only difference is: not having their current pick would force the Lakers to stick with a rebuild for this season, but that’s basically what they should be doing at this stage anyway. It doesn’t change the long-term plans nearly as much as the doomsday scenario may suggest.
We’re going to soldier ahead with this presuming they have a top 3 this year, but acknowledging that it’s not the end of the world if they don’t.
(1) Don’t draft Lonzo Ball because he’s a local star…
For any of you out there who may be younger (maybe you’re on the Lakers right now), I want to give a history lesson. The year was 2006, and fortune smiled on the Houston Texans. They had been awarded the #1 pick in the NFL Draft at just the perfect time.
You see, a local legend was about to arrive in the NFL. Vince Young. A superstar born in their very own city of Houston. A superstar who thrived at the local University of Texas, and had single-handedly won the national championship over a stacked USC team that ESPN had been prematurely touting as one of the best of all-time.
Most pundits didn’t consider Vince Young the best prospect that year, but they immediately linked him to Houston because the fit was so perfect Vince Young would be an instant star for the flailing franchise. He’d drive asses into those seats! He’d sell out every game!
The Texans balked at that, and Young, and even those USC superstars Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, and went with DE Mario Williams instead. Williams didn’t turn out to be a Hall of Famer, but in hindsight, it was the right pick.
They knew what most good franchises do: headlines fade. Stars fade. If you can’t win, you’re not going to be famous forever.
Given that, the Lakers should NOT draft Lonzo Ball just because he’s a local star. And he absolutely is a local star. Obviously, his self-promoting dad Lavar keeps the family in the zeitgeist, but Lonzo’s resume stands on it own. The Ball Brothers’ domination at local Chino Hills made headlines. He stayed local at UCLA, only a few miles away. Although the Bruins didn’t make the Final Four, Ball breathed new life into the program. The fact that a kid like that may be available for his hometown team is an amazing coincidence. But it should not be a reason to draft him.
(2) Draft Lonzo Ball because he’s a good basketball fit
All that said, I actually think Lonzo Ball is a good basketball fit with these young Los Angeles Lakers. On paper, a ball-dominant PG clashes with ball-dominant D’Angelo Russell, only a few years removed from being the #2 pick himself.
But that’s not quite true. Russell has never seemed especially comfortable playing lead guard and has talked openly about how hard of a transition it’s been for him. As a natural scorer, perhaps he’d be better at SG. Lonzo Ball’s a pass-first player and would love to set up Russell to score as much as he wants. He also showed a willingness to defer the ballhandling at times to UCLA’s other guards like Aaron Holiday, allowing his funky shot more space when it comes back to him on a catch-and-shoot.
Defensively, the pair makes some sense as well. Russell is only 6’5″, but his wingspan’s much longer than that (6’10” estimate). Similarly, Lonzo Ball’s a tall lead guard at 6’6″ (with a 6’7″ wingspan according to draft express). Defensively, they can be interchangeable pieces. Neither is especially adept at guarding quicker guards (as De’Aaron Fox showed this season), but both can hang with most guards. Between 6’6″ Lonzo Ball, 6’5″ De’Angelo Russell, and 6’9″ Brandon Ingram, you have decent size on the perimeter.
Washington’s Markelle Fultz is the consensus #1 pick, and Kansas SF Josh Jackson is my personal favorite, but the basketball fit with Lonzo Ball on the Lakers justifies a selection if the team winds up at #2 or #3. Brand-wise, both on and off the court, it’d make sense. Luke Walton wants to play fast and play with ball movement, and that’s exactly what Lonzo Ball can bring.
(3) Don’t make waves yet, but stay close to the beach
New GM Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka have inherited control of the Lakers, and presumably, want to make a big splash. More than anything, I’d advise this franchise to wait one year before that.
As mentioned in the opening, the Lakers aren’t guaranteed to have a top 5 pick next year but should have a top 5 pick by 2018 if they continue with their youth movement and rebuild. They need to wait to collect one of those picks before making a power move; the talent in the top 5 of an NBA Draft is too great to pass on in favor of a quick fix.
The timing (whether the pick is in 2017 or 2018) works well because 2018 is when some of their salaries come off the books. Timo Mozgov and Luol Deng will still be under contract, but mid-sized salaries like Corey Brewer ($7.6 million??) and Tarik Black ($6.6) will come off the books. The Lakers will enter the 2018 summer with $47 million in salary, and the room to offer a max deal to a free agent.
Given that, it makes much more sense to wait until 2018 to make a big move than trying to trade for someone like Paul George now. Why mortgage your young talent for George, when you can wait a year and keep them all instead? Best yet, for the Lakers, is that Paul George won’t be the only superstar available with local ties. The team has long talked about Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins, both slated for free agency the same year.
To be honest, the Lakers shouldn’t sign someone like Russell Westbrook or Paul George anyway if they’re going to be the only star on the roster. You need to pair him with another star more in his prime. That’s when your young talent can come into play. IF the Lakers do land a premier free agent, they can flip their young talent for a superstar to pair with him (a la the Cavs trading #1 pick Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love in order to lure in LeBron.)
And make no mistake, this Lakers will be in play for every superstar in the future, given the nature of the market and the esteem of the franchise. In fact, if there’s ever a crazy scenario where an aging “banana boat” crew LeBron, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and Dwyane Wade all reunite on the same team, the Lakers would make sense as a destination. LeBron James already has a production company on the Warner Bros. lot with some TV and movies in development; playing out his last days as a player/producer/media mogul doesn’t sound like such a bad retirement plan.
That may be a little pie in the sky, but the Lakers can indeed dream big, so long as they take my advice and wait at least one more year first.
