GREENVILLE, SC – MARCH 19: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Duke Blue Devils dribbles against Chris Silva #30 of the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first half during the second round of the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2017 in Greenville, South Carolina. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
I’ve been running my “Offseason Blueprint” series a little prematurely before the results of the lottery were even announced. However, it turns out that there weren’t many shocking twists and turns among those picks, so most of the same logic still applies.
However, I did want to take a deeper dive into the draft now that we know the exact order. Here would be MY SUGGESTED PICKS (not my predicted picks) for each slot.
(1) Boston: PG Markelle Fultz, Washington
A lot has been made about the potential wonky fit between Isaiah Thomas and Markelle Fultz, two ball dominant players, but I don’t believe that’s entirely true. Fultz is a 6’4″ guard with a massive 6’9″ wingspan, making me believe he can easily slide in next to IT and guard bigger guards on the defensive end. He’d also pair well in the backcourt with Avery Bradley, where he’d become more of that ball-dominant PG on offense.
The Celtics are trying to serve two masters with a “win now” and a “win later” approach, but Fultz could fit into that timeline on both ends. He may take a more complementary role to Isaiah Thomas right off the bat, but in 2-3 years, he’d become the lead dog on the team, with an aging Isaiah Thomas sliding into a 6th man/scorer off the bench role.
And of course, that’s presuming the Celtics keep Fultz, IT, and Avery Bradley long term, which may not be the case. I happen to think Kansas’ Josh Jackson is on par with Fultz, talent wise, but there’s no denying that Fultz has more immediate value and trade value right now. He allows the Celtics to maximize their assets, in case they do want to make another power move.
(2) L.A. Lakers: PG Lonzo Ball, UCLA
Lonzo Ball gets his wish to play in L.A.
Lonzo and Lavar Ball clearly want to stay in L.A., and all indications are that the interest is mutual.
Again, like Fultz to Boston, I don’t believe this “fit” is a problem, either. D’Angelo Russell has remarked that he feels more comfortable at the SG position, where his own wingspan helps him hold up on the defensive end. Neither Russell nor Ball can lock down speedy PGs, but they’re both big enough to be interchangeable pieces on defense and hold their own.
More than anything, Lonzo Ball brings an uptempo, pass-first mentality to the Lakers, which is what coach Luke Walton has been preaching. Having two guards who can attack and distribute will go a long way to making their offense dangerous again.
And again, that’s presuming there’s no trade in the works. I don’t see the Lakers trading #2, but floating D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle for an impending-FA Paul George does make some sense on both sides.
(3) Philadelphia: SF Josh Jackson, Kansas
In my blueprint for the Sixers, I mentioned the need for unconventional guards who could play off the ball and allow Ben Simmons to facilitate from the PF position. In that regard, someone like Kentucky’s Malik Monk makes a world of sense, fit wise.
But I can’t wait any longer to draft the value play in Josh Jackson, whom I’ve argued could be my #1 prospect in the entire class.
Jackson’s fit on offense isn’t as clean here because his shot’s a work in progress. I believe that he can still be a lead option, but more as a penetrator and passer, a la Jimmy Butler. However, that’s what you’d expect Ben Simmons to do, meaning a duplication and potentially two non-shooters out there, clogging up the lane.
Still, there are two sides to basketball, and the fit on defense would merit this selection. Jackson’s a prowling panther on the defensive end. A wing tandem of Jackson and Robert Covington would have a lot of size and lockdown potential, and that’s not even counting Ben Simmons and freakin’ Joel Embiid down low. The Sixers have the chance to have a historically freaky lineup here. When that opportunity arises, you have to ignore the fit and roll the dice on potential dominance.
(4) Phoenix: SF Jayson Tatum, Duke
The Suns can debate the merits of some of these available guards, with De’Aaron Fox, in particular, a good complement to Devin Booker in the backcourt. However, I happen to think Eric Bledsoe played well for them this season, so there’s no need to force a trade when you don’t have to.
Aside from Markelle Fultz, Jayson Tatum is the most likely prospect in this class to average 20 points in the NBA. He’s a natural scorer with a polished skill set. He still needs to extend his range, but the fact that he can get to the line and convert (84.9%) suggests he can be a Carmelo Anthony-esque scorer at the next level.
The Suns already have an underrated scorer at SF in T.J. Warren, but you have to think that the 6’8″ Tatum can play some stretch 4 for them as well, which is something he did quite often at Duke. Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac may be a more natural fit in that type of role, so I can see an argument for him as well. Personally, I think Tatum’s a more aggressive and assertive scorer with more star potential, which is why I lean his way here.
(5) Sacramento: PG De’Aaron Fox, Kentucky
The Kings were the one team that benefited from the lottery, jumping up into the top 3 (albeit bumped back down two spots as a result of an earlier trade.)
The team definitely needs a point guard for the future. With two picks, they can get “cute” and try to take someone else here and hope a PG falls to them at #10, but that’s not worth the risk in my mind. Not when you have a potential standout like De’Aaron Fox sitting in your lap.
I love the potential fit of Fox with Buddy Hield. Hield, obviously, is a shooter, which is the one flaw in Fox’s game right now. Fox thrives as a penetrator + slashing scorer + passer, which complements Hield’s spacing well. On the other end, Fox’s size and elite quickness can help make him a lockdown defender.
I can’t claim to know much about these kids’ character and personality, but by all accounts, Fox is a good worker and a good leader, which can help this young Kings’ team stay on the right track. If he’s the new face of the franchise and tone setter in the locker room, it would be a marked improvement on Boogie Cousins’ dark cloud.
(6) Orlando: SG Malik Monk, Kentucky
The Magic can go in a variety of directions with their roster, with an eye on anyone with star potential. Kentucky’s Malik Monk has that, in my mind. He’s a little undersized, but he’s a good athlete and a superb, quick-release shooter.
Perhaps Rob Hennigan’s biggest error in his rebuild of the Magic was cobbling together a core of non-shooters (Elfrid Payton, Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, etc). Monk could reverse that make up almost single-handedly. He’s athletic enough to run and game with Payton and Aaron Gordon, but he also has the ability to be a go-to scorer in the halfcourt.
(7) Minnesota: SF Jonathan Isaac, Florida State
If Jonathan Isaac falls this far, he’d be a dream fit for Minnesota, and a terrifying scenario for the rest of the league.
The 6’11” Isaac has all the tools that you’d want in the modern NBA: he’s long, agile, and can shoot from distance. The team would presumably start him off as a SF, but groom him to be a stretch 4 to pair along with Karl-Anthony Towns down the road. Isaac at PF would open up their offense and make their defense more fluid and switchable.
As talented as Isaac is, I do worry that he doesn’t have that killer instinct and desire to be a superstar. However, on a team like Minnesota, he doesn’t have to be. He can be that third or fourth banana behind K.A.T. and Andrew Wiggins, and make their lineup complete.
(8) New York: PG Dennis Smith, North Carolina State
Before the season, Dennis “Junior” Smith was a hot topic and a potential #1 pick. He struggled early in his college season and got surpassed by some other guard prospects, but make no mistake: he still has star potential. He’s an explosive guard with instincts and leadership abilities.
I can understand why Smith may slide down this far, partly because of his prior injury history, and partly because of his limited size/wingspan. However, he’d be an immediate jolt to the Knicks and a burst of excitement. I’m not saying he’ll be Derrick Rose, exactly, but he’s more “Derrick Rose” than the current Derrick Rose.
(9) Dallas: PG Frank Ntilikina, Belgium
There’s some magical kismet to the idea that the Mavericks can draft the 7’0″ European shooter Lauri Markkanen at #9, nearly 20 years after Dirk Nowitzki was selected #9 himself.
However, a lot has changed in the NBA in the last 20 years. I’m not sure Mark Cuban, Rick Carlisle, and the Mavericks want to build their franchise around a big stiff shooter who may struggle to switch on defense. I expect the team will re-sign Nerlens Noel, who’s a much better fit for today’s game given his quick feet and quick hands.
The Mavericks may need that type of defensive presence at the guard position, where Yogi Ferrell is a little undersized and limited. Ntilikina’s a massive project, but he’s also a massive guard with a world of upside. He may take 2-3 years to develop, but the Mavericks should have the patience for that type of project.
(10) Sacramento: PF Lauri Markkanen, Arizona
Clearly, I don’t hate Markkanen as much as that previous entry suggested. The kid’s a remarkable dead-eye shooter who should be able to add a lot to a rotation as either a stretch 4 or 5.
The Kings have another player with some of those tools in Skal Labisierre, but I see Labisierre being able to hang as a center and rim-protector on defense down the road, which won’t ever be Markkanen’s strong suit.
Part of this pick is predicated on the idea that the Kings drafted a guard like De’Aaron Fox at #5. Fox isn’t a strong shooter, so he needs good shooters around him. If he can drive and kick it out to Buddy Hield and Lauri Markkanen, that offense would start to look a lot more dangerous.
(11) Charlotte: C Harry Giles, Duke
Former super prospect Harry Giles may be the most polarizing prospect in the draft this side of Lonzo Ball. At his best, he’s a Top 3 talent, with the size and skills to be an All-Star. However, he’s rarely been healthy lately, looking like a shell of his former self. No matter where he goes in the lottery, he represents a massive boom/bust pick.
But I think the Hornets may need that homerun swing. Right now, they’re stuck in a rut of mediocrity with no clear way out. Enter Giles. Maybe he’s cooked and a lost cause, but you still have Cody Zeller able to hang as your big man. And if Giles DOES rediscover the old magic, then the team may actually be able to jolt forward; at this spot in the draft, there are not many prospects who can be potential franchise-changers like that.
(12) Detroit: SF Justin Jackson, North Carolina
The Stan Van Gundy experiment got stuck in the mud last season, with fans questioning everything about him and this young core. Reddit user and Pistons fan /J_kmos commented the other day in a thread that franchise cornerstone Andre Drummond is “a lazy asshole with a major ego just collecting checks at 23. it’s fucking disgusting, I didn’t even dislike Josh Smith as much as I dislike Drummond’s fat ass.”
Yikes. It may be time for a culture change here. Given that dissatisfaction (and SVG’s soon-to-be-expiring contract), this is a team that could use some much-needed wins and a return to the playoffs to wipe that stink off them and save SVG’s job.
More than anyone else in this draft range, UNC’s Justin Jackson may be able to help right away. He’s a junior with good length and better defensive ability than the raw steals/blocks stats show. He needs to keep extending his range, but I can see him developing into an effective 3-and-D small forward fairly quickly.
(13) Denver: PF Ivan Rabb, Cal
Although Kenneth Faried started his career as a budding star, his flaws have been highlighted and picked apart over the last few years. He’s simply not very tall or long or effective on defense right now.
Rabb fits the profile of a traditional PF better. He’s a fairly nimble 6’10″/6’11” PF with length and rebounding ability. He may not be an elite shot-blocker down low, but I think he can be a solid PF and undersized C in the same way that Tristan Thompson is for the Cavs. Rabb needs to work on extending his range, but he’s already making strides in that department.
I can also see the Nuggets going for the big defensive wing in O.G. Anunboy out of Indiana. He’s recovering from an injury, but his 7’2″ wingspan suggests he has lockdown potential on defense (and caused some to compare him to Kawhi Leonard before the season). Given the team’s supply of talent, they can afford to take a shot on a bigger project like that here.
(14) Miami: C Jarrett Allen, Texas
About six months ago, I wrote a post about a certain type of prospect: the blue chip big man recruit who underwhelmed in one year of college basketball and got under-drafted as a result. Texas’ Jarrett Allen is a prime candidate for that type of career. He underwhelmed in college, but a lot of big men do at that age. The kid has a world of potential, especially on defense, given his 7’5″ wingspan and shot blocking prowess.
Obviously, the Heat have that kind of player already in Hassan Whiteside. However, here’s where a long-term plan comes in handy. A raw big man like Jarrett Allen is going to take years to develop. Coincidentally, Whiteside is 27 and on the books for 3 more seasons. By the end of that contract, Allen will be 22 and would presumably be ready to jump into that same exact role. Making sure that you have a big shot-blocker down low for the next decade sounds like a prudent investment to me.
