The playoffs are here and we should all be soaking up every minute of that. However, there are a few teams that have already entered their offseason — 14 lottery teams (that we’ve already covered) and 8 more teams that got sent packing in R1.
Today, we’re going to take a look at a team that may not win a title but could kick your candy ass:
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Whatever Memphis does, they should be careful to keep their defensive identity intact.
One of the most popular tenets of analytics and statistical analysis, across all sports, is that a team’s “point differential” means more than simple wins and losses.
Someone ought to tell that to the Memphis Grizzlies.
I’ve always suspected that point differential may not be as accurate in basketball, considering it’s a sport where teams can often coast for three-quarters before separating themselves down the stretch (and a sport where some teams coast through three-quarters of the regular season as well.)
The Grizzlies have made the playoffs seven seasons in a row — an underrated accomplishment — and have often done so in the face of point differential logic. Over the last four regular seasons, the team has gone 190-138 (for a winning percentage of 57.9%) despite a modest point differential of +0.8. In fact, the team has been higher ranked in W-L record than it has been in point differential for SIX seasons in a row. TAKE THAT FOR DATA indeed.
Is that a fluke? Or is that a sign that perhaps the Grizzlies’ toughness, savvy, and winning culture allows them to squeak out more close games than their peers? Whatever the reason, the franchise should hope that fortune/luck/culture continues, as they face challenges about how to break out of the first round. Here are some ideas how:
(1) Think with your head, not with your heart
First-year coach David Fizdale may claim he doesn’t like stats, but clearly, he knows a little something about it. In fact, in his first season at the helm, he made an effort to embrace the modern game and have his Grizzlies attempt more threes. Largely, that worked well: the team improved from 6.1 made threes a game to 9.4 this past year. Even in a league where every team has started jacking up threes, that’s a big jump — from 27th in the league all the way to 15th.
If the team wants to keep their playoff streak alive, that trend needs to continue. Sadly, that may mean some tough decisions regarding the core of the team’s “grit and grind” identity in free agents Zach Randolph and Tony Allen.
Randolph and Allen may still be effective players for stretches, but they’re not spacers. Playing the two of them a combined 51 minutes a night does limit the team’s offensive output. Presumably, that won’t get much better, either. Both Tony Allen and Zach Randolph are 35 years old right now, and fellow free agent Vince Carter is already 40.
All three have some value in the NBA still, but the team needs to be cold-hearted about that value. All three have merits (Tony Allen can still defend like a boss, and Zach Randolph still rebounds well), but they’re rotational backups at best.
They shouldn’t be overpaid out of loyalty. More importantly, they shouldn’t be over-PLAYED out of loyalty. Sometimes, when you have a popular veteran leader, it’s difficult for a coach to sit them. There’s an internal pressure in that locker room to leave them out there too long. In my mind, that’s what happened to Scottie Brooks with Kendrick Perkins in OKC. In a sense, you’re doing coach Fizdale a favor by not bringing them back, because you’re relieving him of that dilemma.
The Memphis Grizzlies may have a “grit and grind” identity, but their best players (Conley and Gasol) have the skill set to thrive in any type of tempo. If you surround them with shooters, this offense would have the ability to run and gun and maybe keep pace with the Houstons of the world. And make no mistake: the Grizzlies will never make the Finals unless their offense is up to that task.
(2) Invest in only one diamond in the rough
The Grizzlies have done a solid job finding some diamonds in the rough among the NBA scrapheap and revealing them to be legitimate players in the league. The best two examples of that recently have been JaMychal Green and James Ennis, two no-names who have developed into key rotational pieces for them.
And in a way, that could be a problem. JaMychal Green is slated to be a free agent right now, and it couldn’t come at a better time for him. The 26-year-old had a mini-breakout year with 8.9 points and 7.1 rebounds a game (on 50% shooting from the field.) Unlike ZBo, Green represents exactly what the NBA wants in a PF right now; solid foot speed and spacing. I have a feeling that he’s going to get a BIG contract offer somewhere.
Personally, I’d avoid paying too much for Green. Green did look like a stellar fit next to Marc Gasol, but I don’t know if he’s exceptionally rare of a talent. Locking him up on a major long-term deal does lock you into this core, and I don’t believe this core is good enough to make it out of the first-round right now. Letting him leave (if he does get a big offer elsewhere) amounts to taking one step back, with an eye to taking two steps forward in the future.
I feel the opposite way about James Ennis. The reason is: Ennis is PRE breakout right now. The 26-year-old is still on a $3 million contract, slated to be a free agent come 2018. If I ran the Grizzlies, I’d try to lock up James Ennis on a modest deal right now, before he gets JaMychael Green-expensive next summer. That breakout may be coming next season. Ennis is a solid spacer (37.2% from three) and a good defender (+1.40 on real +/-). His raw statistics don’t jump out at you yet (6.7 points, 4.0 rebounds) but that’s the perfect time to strike. By this time next year, we may be talking about Ennis landing a sizable deal as a 3-and-D player; the Grizzlies should lock him now and get ahead of that curve. Given the fact that Ennis has bounced around the fringes of the NBA, he may be inclined to take a bargain deal in exchange for some long-term security.
(3) Deal with the elephant in the room
The Grizzlies knew that the Mike Conley – Marc Gasol combo was probably one star short of contention, so they took a big swing on finding that missing piece. Unfortunately, that swing happened to be Chandler Parsons.
Despite some injury concerns, the team spent a massive amount on Parsons, who has spent more time on Tinder than he has on the court so far. Parsons only played 34 games and shot 33.8% from the floor in those 19.9 minutes a night. To make matters worse, this nightmare isn’t going away. He’s still slated to earn $23 million next year, $24 million the year after, AND $25 million the year after that. Quite frankly, it’s going to be near-impossible for Memphis to become a true title contender with that albatross on their books.
Is there any way to get rid of Parsons? Maybe, but it won’t be easy.
The team can float the idea of a cash-rich team like Brooklyn taking the contract off their hands if they throw in a pick to pair with him, but even that’s unlikely, given the length of the deal. The team can suck it up and hope Parsons’ health improves next year (he would be a great fit for the team if he was 100%, after all), but that’s unlikely as well.
Instead, the Grizzlies may be better suited to study the Miami Heat’s handling of Chris Bosh. I’m no salary cap expert, but as far as I understand it, if Bosh is shown to have career-ending injuries, the Heat can wipe that number off their salary cap (although Bosh still gets paid his contract).
Apparently, the 25 game threshold is an important one in regards to this rule, so the Grizzlies should be mindful of that number. If Parsons continues to look like a shell of himself, or if he suffers a setback and has more surgery, the Grizzlies should try to keep him under that 25 game limit next year. If they can make the argument that Parsons’ injuries are career-ending, then they can perhaps get that salary wiped off his books for the final years of their deal (again, still paying Parsons.)
Of course, this isn’t entirely the Grizzlies’ choice. Like Bosh, Parsons may insist that he’d be ready to keep playing. At this point next year, he’d only be 29 years old. Even if he’s never going to be 100%, he can still have a decent career as a tall shooter — those kinds of players tend to last a while in the league.
Your hope here is that Parsons’ heart isn’t in that. In this scenario, he’d be dealing with another setback and more surgery. Maybe he doesn’t want to gut out rehab after rehab, all for the sake of being a rotational player in the future. Maybe he wants to parlay his current level of fame into some type of TV career. Maybe.
If not (and likely not), the Grizzlies better some good doctors, because their chances of sneaking out of R1 may hinge on those joints of his.
