The playoffs are here and we should all be soaking up every minute of that. However, there are 14 unlucky franchises that are missing out on the fun and already looking forward to next year. With them (and their fans) in mind, this series will take a look ahead and help lay out the priorities for this offseason. I’m excited to get to the playoff teams that recently got eliminated, but we’ll finish off the lottery teams first.
My last entry on the Los Angeles Lakers got some criticism for being too general, so we’ll try to be a little more specific regarding our next team without blabbing on too long:
MIAMI HEAT
Erik Spoelstra is proving to be more than just the guy who coached LeBron James.
As fans, it’s easy to conceptualize and understand how an NBA player slowly evolves and improves over time. Even a top rookie may struggle to be a replacement-level player, until they get better and better, enter their prime, and then slowly decline from there.
We usually don’t think that way about NBA coaches, but there’s an argument you can make that they evolve in the same way. Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra may be an example of that. Early on in his career (despite all the wins), he was a punching bag in the media and a scapegoat for any failures the Super Heat had. Spoelstra actually was an underrated coach at the time, but he still had some growing to do in terms of leadership.
It’s funny that, years later, years after the Miami titles, Spoelstra is finally getting the respect as a top flight coach. After the Miami Heat started 10-31 this season, the ragtag roster rattled off 13 wins in a row and finished with a 41-41 record. Best of all, he managed to develop no-name talents, and coax career years out of the likes of Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and Rodney McGruder.
The Heat missed the playoffs by a game, but if they had squeaked in, Spoelstra may be receiving the Coach of the Year trophy. In effect, Spoelstra is in his coaching “prime.” It’s a wonderful thing for the organization and a key building block for their future. Here are some other steps they should consider taking next to keep that momentum going:
(1) Be prudent about paying your “breakout stars”
The Miami Heat will have a few notable free agents this offseason. The team will absolutely exercise their option on Josh Richardson. Conversely, Josh McRoberts will most likely exercise his option ($6.0 million). That leaves two other rotation players hanging in the air: the aforementioned Dion Waiters (who will not exercise his $3 million option) and James Johnson.
Of the two, Waiters will generate the most interest and chatter around league circles. The former #4 pick finally flashed his star potential this past season and was a key figure in the turnaround. A look at Waiters’ play in February showcases his upside potential: that month, he averaged 18.4 points (on 46.7% shooting, 43.2% from three) to go along with 5.9 assists and 1.6 steals. Better yet, he’s still only 25. Presumably, his next contract should carry him through his prime years.
But in a way, that’s the problem. Waiters is going to get PAID this summer, and I’m not sure I’d want to be the team to do it. You can make a case that Waiters’ improvement will only continue upwards (after all, his three-point percentage has improved from 25.6% to 31.9% to 35.8% to 39.5% this past year.) However, that one-year breakout may also be a sign that a regression will follow.
What concerns me most about Dion Waiters’ scoring ability is that it’s not particularly efficient. The primary reason is that: he doesn’t get to the free throw line nearly as much as other top-notch scorers do. That’s an aspect of his game that has not shown much improvement. This past season, he averaged only 2.8 attempts per game (and only shot 64.6% from the stripe while there.) Those lack of freebies explains why his true shooting percentage continues to hover at a mediocre 50.7%.
In a sense, Waiters reminds me of two other inconsistent players who parlayed a great stretch in a great environment into a long-term contract elsewhere: Lance Stephenson and Evan Turner. Now, Stephenson actually didn’t get a MAMMOTH contract from Charlotte (as teams were worried about his risk), so if Waiters yields the same tepid market, I’d bring him back into the fold. He’s certainly useful as a scorer. However, if a team buys into Waiters the same way Portland did with Evan Turner, I would let Waiters walk. I wouldn’t want my team committed to Waiters long-term because the risk of regression is too great. It would limit the team’s flexibility (on and off the court) going forward, and wouldn’t lead to a huge spike in their upside. The Heat have a solid crop of guards ready to replace his minutes anyway, from Tyler Johnson to Josh Richardson to Rodney McGruder to (whatever Justise Winslow is).
That same logic with letting Waiters walk could absolutely apply to PF James Johnson. The narrative on him this year was clear: the magic of the Miami Heat performed a miracle on him, allowing him to lose weight and experience heights that he’d never seen before.
But here’s where I’d push back against that logic some. Johnson certainly benefited from the Miami program, but I actually thought he was a solid player before (especially defensively.) He never found a home that would grant him a consistent 30 minutes a night, but the potential was always there. In fact, his per 36-minute numbers in MIA this season are similar to his numbers in MEM in 2013/14 or in TOR in 2014/15: he was averaging about 1.5 steals and 2.0 blocks per 36 even back then. His defense, coupled with his passing ability, and his (newfound) three-point range, make him an ideal pair with Hassan Whiteside. Simply put, I’d try to keep James Johnson in-house.
Unlike with Waiters, James Johnson won’t be that expensive either. He’s a journeyman who’s already 30 years old. I’m usually “off” on my contract guesses, but I believe the Heat could retain him for something like 2 years, $25/30 million. (am I crazy on that? I usually lowball these guys.)
If I’m the Miami Heat, I try to structure the contract in a very specific way. Let’s say James Johnson agrees to sign a 2 year, $25 million deal in order to stay as a beloved figure of the fanbase. I’d try to work with him to arrange it to pay $20 million in Year 1 and only $5 million in Year 2.
Why? That structure would counter the deal that Tyler Johnson has in place. Last season, the Brooklyn Nets tried to create a funky contract (effectively a “poison pill”) to prevent the Heat from matching. It didn’t work, but it left Miami with a strange contract to deal with: they’ll pay Tyler Johnson $5.8 million next year, and $19.2 million the year after. if you can inverse those two with James Johnson, you can have a nicely balanced book.
(2) Look to the future in the draft
Barring a lottery miracle, the Miami Heat are slated to pick #14 in the NBA draft. Even in a strong year, that’s unlikely to land another star. Most likely, you’re either going to nab yourself one of two things. 1) a decent rotation player. 2) a developmental project with “upside”
Given the fact that Miami may compete for the playoffs next year, there’s an argument you can make for an instant contributor. A player like Cal PF Ivan Rabb makes sense to fit that mold. A college sophomore (they actually still have those?) Rabb will be the most seasoned and experienced player in the entire lottery if he lands at #14. He averaged a solid 14 points and 10.5 rebound a game for the Golden Bears this year, projecting as a traditional power forward or maybe a small 5 a la Tristan Thompson. He’ll never be a standout unless he can improve his range, but he’s working on that now.
In terms of the home run swing, I’d consider rolling the dice and drafting Texas C Jarrett Allen. Who is that, exactly? Even most college basketball fans wouldn’t know much about Allen, who underwhelmed along with Shaka Smart’s entire program this year.
However — Allen has upside. He’s a fairly fluid 6’11” with a 7’6″ wingspan, which could help him become a difference-making shot blocker in the NBA. Allen also fits the mold of several other draft steals: he’s a blue-chip recruit who didn’t dominate in his lone season in college, and subsequently fell down the rankings as a result. Other big men who fit that same exact profile include Andre Drummond (#9 pick), Steven Adams (#12 pick) Myles Turner (#11 pick), and Skal Labissiere (#28 last year). Clearly, big men take time to develop.
That slow learning curve also makes Allen an even better fit for the Miami Heat. Jarrett Allen’s upside may be someone like their very own Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside’s only 27, and still under contract for 3 more seasons. But let’s roll forward: all the way to the year 2020. By then, Whiteside is going to be 30 and presumably on an athletic decline. The team could either extend him to a major deal or turn to their developing big man Jarrett Allen (who will be turning 22). Not a bad replacement plan, huh.
Should a team like the Miami Heat really look THREE YEARS ahead? Sure, why not. NBA rookies tend to struggle for the first 1/2 years anyway (see: Winslow, Justise) so teams should always be looking toward the long term. Being able to acquire their next Whiteside could be a prudent play.
(3) Resolve the Chris Bosh situation
Okay so my suggestions so far — lose Dion Waiters, re-sign James Johnson, draft Jarrett Allen — aren’t going to make a world of difference in the standings. The Miami Heat could be a possible 7th or 8th seed next season, with or without those moves. Why aren’t we shaking this up more?
Before the Heat do anything drastic, they have to resolve their contract situation with Chris Bosh. Right now, Bosh is still on the books for $25 million next year, and $26.8 million the year after. It’ll be hard to make power moves until that contract gets wiped off their salary cap.
I’m not an NBA salary cap expert (or particularly good at math), but this article explains more about the nuances of his contract and how the Miami Heat can remove themselves from it.
When they do, the real moves can begin. The Miami Heat will be a destination for superstars for a variety of factors, extending past the glamor of the city and the lack of state taxes. The organization’s top-notch, the strength program’s top-notch, and as mentioned, the coach is as well.
Add a superstar to a core of Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside and the Heat will become a legitimate threat in the East. Maybe not to LeBron and Cleveland, necessarily, but to Boston, Toronto, Washington and everyone else. Looking forward, all their contracts will be off the books by 2019 or 2020, when they can completely reshape their roster with some fresh blood and some big names.
