The playoffs are here and we should all be soaking up every minute of that. However, there are 14 unlucky franchises that are missing out on the fun and already looking forward to next year. With them (and their fans) in mind, this series will take a look ahead and help lay out the priorities for this offseason.
Today, we’re looking at a team with more superstars than recent playoff wins:
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
My girlfriend knows about 10 players in the entire NBA, and 2 of those are on the New Orleans Pelicans. Given that, you’d think the pair of “Boogie” and “the skinny guy with the unibrow” would be a legitimate contender. Apparently, winning and losing isn’t as simple as that.
Winning and contending haven’t been as simple as a quick fix coaching change, either. After Monty Williams‘ team went 45-37 in 2014/15, the Pelicans hired Alvin Gentry, thinking he may turbo boost the team up the standings the same way that Steve Kerr did with the Golden State Warriors. Unfortunately, the Pelicans have been even worse since then.
At least, they keep it interesting, including a blockbuster trade for Boogie Cousins last year. Can these two superstars fit? Can they lead the team back into the playoffs? Maybe. These are the steps I’d recommend to finding that out:
(1) Embrace your coach (for at least one more year, anyway)
It’s do-or-die time for Alvin Gentry in New Orleans.
Media darling Gentry signed a four-year contract in 2015, to much acclaim. Since then, the team has gone 64-100. Yikes.
I was never overwhelmed by Gentry when the team hired him, and I’m even less impressed now. He’s dealt with boatloads of injuries and off-the-court complications (including the Jrue Holiday family situation this year) but he’s wilted under that pressure rather than overcome it.
I would seriously consider firing Gentry (and Dell Demps) and looking for up-and-coming assistants. I happen to like Nate Tibbetts (POR), Alex Jensen (UTA), and Nick Nurse (TOR) in that regard. I’d canvas the players (mostly AD) and see how much they’re buying into Gentry’s vision; if the results are mixed, a change would be the next step.
But barring any locker room issues, I’d recommend the team not fire Gentry yet. He’s entering Year 3 and a crucial time for the franchise. Prized acquisition DeMarcus Cousins will be a free agent after next season. The team needs to find out, quickly, whether Cousins + Anthony Davis is a winning combination. I don’t know if more changes and more upheaval is the answer for the team at this time — they need continuity, not more excuses.
Gentry stays. For now. But make no mistake — 40 wins will not cut it again.
(2) Embrace your core (for at least one more year, anyway)
As mentioned, Boogie Cousins will be a free agent after this year. The jury’s still out on whether he and Anthony Davis can be a dominant pair together. Obviously, both require a lot of touches, tilting the team’s usage to a pair of big men in an era that goes against that grain.
That said, Cousins is still a valuable player, even on this team. His ability to space the floor fits well with Anthony Davis on offense. On defense, Davis’ nimble feet can allow him to keep up with faster players and allow Boogie to stay down low and provide that big thicker body. The team should absolutely stagger their minutes (16 minutes together, 16 apart) to ensure one stays on the court at all times, but these are two that can play together.
And consider the landscape of the league as a whole. OKC is paying Enes Kanter $18 million a year. Orlando is paying Bismack Biyombo $17 million. Washington is paying Ian Mahinmi $16 million. Those are backups who really can’t share the court with their starting centers. You’re telling me DeMarcus Cousins (only $16.8 million this year) isn’t worth the money because he’d ideally only play half his minutes with his other big man? Cousins is definitely worth his contract — at least, this contract. I’d keep Cousins around for this year, and try to make the pairing work.
With the same logic in mind, I’d also re-sign Jrue Holiday, a free agent this summer. Of course, that depends on what the team knows about his health. If the team doctors don’t feel like he can stay on the court, then you let him walk. If they give the green light, Holiday’s a valuable player for them and should be paid accordingly.
Holiday’s a solid two-way player, capable of scoring and distributing, but also utilizing his size and length to hold up well on the defensive end. Right now he’s only 26, so his next contract should put him squarely in his prime (barring those injuries). We can see from a guard like Mike Conley (29 years old) that point guards can continue to improve with time and wisdom; I suspect Holiday’s best basketball is ahead of him.
So if we say the Pelicans’ “core” is Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis, and DeMarcus Cousins — is that good enough to make the playoffs? Not quite yet. But luckily for us, we have one more step to go.
(3) Bargain shop at the market
Barring some luck (and maybe a Naw’lins voodoo curse), the Pelicans will forfeit their lottery pick to the Sacramento Kings. They’ll have to improve their roster via free agency. Given their cap crunch, that won’t be easy.
The Pelicans have a few solid rotation players under contract in SF Solomon Hill (who can play either the 3 or 4), SG E’Twaun Moore, and a capable backup PG in Tim Frazier. I’d like to see them add at least one more wing player to that rotation, preferably a 3-and-D guy who can complement their big men.
On the market right now are a few players who only hit one of those criteria. Undersized shooting guards Jodie Meeks and Anthony Morrow are “A” shooters who probably can’t hang with bigger wings defensively. Matt Barnes and Thabo Sefolosha are veteran wings who can still hang on defense but aren’t much of a threat on the other end.
The best of both worlds may nearby the family tree, in Jrue Holiday’s brother Justin Holiday. Currently a 20-minute a game player on the Knicks, you can make an argument that Justin merits a larger role. He’s a decent shooter (35.5% from three this year) whose 7’0″ wingspan helps him guard either spot on the wing. He could play 25 minutes a night for the Pelicans, in my mind.
Best of all: the team has a natural connection there and may be able to get him at a discount. (Pairing the Holidays is similar logic I used in the Knicks section). The brothers have expressed interest in playing together, and the fit in New Orleans makes sense. Justin Holiday may be able to get a larger contract offer elsewhere, but I’d make the pitch to him that playing a fairly prominent role in New Orleans will help him long term. If he signs on the cheap and looks good in 2017/18, he’ll set himself up for a fatter long-term deal the year after.
In terms of even cheaper wing options, the Pelicans can look at Gerald Green and Reggie Bullock, currently slated to be bargain free agents as well. Each can play SG/SF and space the court.
conclusion
As you can see, my recipe for the Pelicans isn’t especially bold. It’s basically keeping the entire team intact and trying to tweak the edges of the roster.
That’s intentional. The Pelicans made their big power move this past season, trading for Boogie Cousins. Trades like that need time to sink in, and time for the chemistry to coalesce. In that way, this season will be huge for all parties involved. If Boogie+Gentry don’t work out, the team will require a major revamp after next season and will probably send both packing. But for now, I recommend sitting on their hands and preaching patience in line with the theme of the post — “for at least one year, anyway.”
