The playoffs are here and we should all be soaking up every minute of that. However, there are 14 unlucky franchises that are missing out on the fun and already looking forward to next year. With them (and their fans) in mind, this series will take a look ahead and help lay out the priorities for this offseason.
Today, we’re going to be looking at everybody’s favorite trainwreck:
NEW YORK KNICKS
As we all have been made keenly aware, Phil Jackson has lost touch with NBA basketball. He’s lost touch with reality.
In his stubborn pride, he’s refused to accept the new realities of the game in its “pace and space” era. And it’s not a matter of preference — it’s the matter of simple math. The three point shot is a structural flaw in the game. It’s not 50% harder to make a three-pointer than a long two. Teams are wisely launching threes in record numbers — and they should be launching even more. You may bemoan that fact and that style of play, as Gregg Popovich has, but you have to embrace is, as Gregg Popovich has. He’s the type of coach — like Bill Belichick — that continues to evolve and stay one step ahead, instead of one step behind.
Phil Jackson, on the other hand, continues to fall further and further behind. He mocks three-pointers every chance he gets, and even praised Kristaps Porzingis for passing up threes because “they’re a cheap way to get points.” Right.
Now, after all that ranting, I’m still not going to suggest firing Phil Jackson, simply because I don’t think James Dolan is prepared to do it yet. He’s committed a boatload of money to Jackson and will presumably ride out the roller coaster for at least one more year. So let’s suggest some moves on the presumption that the current leadership will be in place.
(1) Don’t force a Carmelo trade
When Phil Jackson publicly announced that Carmelo Anthony would be best served to play elsewhere in order to compete for a title, he had two goals in mind. The first was, obviously, to shame Anthony into waiving his no-trade clause.
His secondary goal, in my mind, was to make sure that Anthony wouldn’t want to stick around the Knicks after next season. After 2017-18, Anthony will have an additional one-year player option (for a pricey $28 million.) By then, Anthony will be 34 and even more past his prime than he is now. Even as a superstar name, he’ll be hard pressed to find that type of annual salary on the open market.
But Phil Jackson knows this: and knows that the only way to push Anthony out is to insult him. Anthony’s clique — LeBron and Dwyane Wade included — are prideful stars who tend to bolt after being disrespected by management. Phil Jackson isn’t doing that by accident.
But my point is that the Knicks should not force a BAD trade simply to get rid of Anthony. He’s overpaid and aging, but he’s still a decent player. If you have to ride out the rest of his contract, it’s fine. It’s not the end of the world.
What would be worse is panicking and accepting a desperation trade that would hamstring your franchise in the long term. Some of the trade options that have been floated include some expensive vets that may have contracts longer than Anthony’s — including Jamal Crawford (guaranteed for 2 more years) and J.R. Smith (3 more years). I’d rather eat Anthony’s salary for this season and expect him to opt out than tie myself to another longer term deal (especially when you’ve already got Joakim Noah‘s corpse on the books until 2020.)
Ideally, the Knicks would trade Carmelo Anthony now for younger pieces and expiring contracts. The returns that you’d get for Anthony won’t be great, but maybe you can get an Avery Bradley from the Celtics. Or maybe you settle for a package of intriguing lesser-known talent like Delon Wright (TOR) or Kyle Anderson (SA). Adding a few younger players, even role players, for Anthony makes sense. But the Knicks need to be careful not to accept another bad contract in turn as part of that package. That’d be cutting off your nose to spite your face.
(2) Make a play for a Holiday
Clearly, the Knicks are gearing toward a rebuild and a youth movement, which isn’t easy when you have big contracts for Carmelo Anthony (as well as Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah.)
Still, despite those deals, the team will have upwards of $20 million in cap space this summer to play with. I’d recommend that they sit on that money and not spend it on a pricey free agent: with one exception. Jrue Holiday.
Holiday is a star player who will command a hefty contract, but he’s also young enough to fit into a rebuilding project. He’s 26, which means he should be able to keep up a strong level of play for the next 4 years of a contract. He’s good on both ends, with his length being a particular help on defense. The only downside to Holiday is his medical history and durability concerns. He’s missed a lot of games over his career, although they haven’t seemed to sap his skills so far. As long as the medical staff clears him, he’d be worth an investment for most teams.
And among those teams, the Knicks may actually have a good chance to land him. Holiday’s from Los Angeles, so the big city New York market may appeal to him. More importantly, his brother Justin Holiday plays with the Knicks (although he’s a free agent as well.) I happen to think Justin Holiday is an underrated player (a decent “3 and D” wing) who would be worth keeping in the rotation.
The Knicks can’t pay Jrue Holiday as much as the Pelicans can, but they can pay THE HOLIDAYS quite a bit as a package deal. If you have to overpay Justin Holiday a little in order to lure in Jrue, it may be worth it. The brothers have mentioned that they’d like to play together, so this may be an opportunity for that. The Knicks would have to clear a little cap room to sign both, but the mechanics and cap logistics could work out.
Of course, it’s more likely that Jrue may lure Justin Holiday over to New Orleans instead. Playing with Anthony Davis is a little more appealing than playing for Phil Jackson.
If the Holiday+Holiday double pay day doesn’t work out, the Knicks shouldn’t force another big money signing. Derrick Rose played decently for the team (on offense), but I don’t see him as a long-term answer at the point, or even a short-term answer. Basically, it’s Holiday or bust on the free agent front.
(3) Draft an alpha dog
After the hype of his rookie season, the legend of Kristaps Porzingis cooled down a bit as a sophomore. He improved, but perhaps not as much as some expected. The talk of him being a future MVP has quieted down, and a more realistic expectation may be starting to set in. Porzingis looks like a star — and a max player — but perhaps he’s not going to be the best player on a title contender. He’d be an ideal second fiddle to a superstar, though, given his shot blocking and his range.
But alas, where are you going to find another superstar? The Knicks lost a tiebreaker to the Timberwolves, meaning they’re likely going to draft at #7. Even in a strong draft, it’s unlikely that pick will yield a player better than Porzingis.
However, the Knicks may be able to find a player with star quality. By that, I mean a take charge alpha dog who can galvanize a team. It sounds silly to take in subjective terms like that, but leadership does matter in the NBA. Dirk Nowitzki was always the best player on the Dallas Mavericks, but he was helped quite a bit in that locker room by the presence of (American) leaders like Jason Kidd and Tyson Chandler.
There are a couple of options in the draft that may slip down to #7. It’s unlikely that Duke small forward Jayson Tatum will, but there’s an outside chance. Tatum is a scoring machine who’s unnaturally skilled for his age, especially in the midrange. He’s a small forward who should be able to grow into a stretch four. Okay, sure, that sounds exactly like Carmelo Anthony… but is that bad? The problem with the Anthony+Porzingis pairing wasn’t the skill set — is was the age difference. A younger version of Anthony could be a great fit with the Zinger.
The other name, more likely to be there at #7, is North Carolina State PG, Dennis Smith Jr. Originally considered a top 3 prospect out of high school, “Junior” Smith’s stock slipped a little during the course of this season because the Wolfpack didn’t play well. Smith also shot poorly at the start of the year, which had him falling well behind fellow super recruits like Markelle Fultz. In a way, he’s become a forgotten man.
Smith will have some red flags against him in the draft — he’s had his own medical issues, and he doesn’t have great length (he’s listed at 6’3″ with a 6’3″ wingspan and may be even shorter than that.) But what that means is… he’s more likely to slip to #7.
If he does, he’d be a very appealing fit for the Knicks. Smith’s athletic and explosive, especially for his size, and is also a natural scorer. He’s also a natural leader who commands respect from his teammates. His shot’s not there yet, but you can see a scenario where he develops into a Damian Lillard type pro. Now, Blazers fans may bristle at that comparison because Lillard was more “NBA ready” as a draft pick, but keep in mind he was a senior coming out of Weber State and Smith is only a freshman.
The Jrue Holiday signing scenario seems unlikely, but the youth movement version of the Knicks (trade Carmelo for cheap young pieces, draft a possible star like Dennis Smith, and build around him and Porzingis) may represent a path forward for the Knicks that their fans can get excited about.
