In this article, I’m going to touch on players that fall into two categories: overrated or underrated. Keep in mind that a player being overrated or underrated has more to do with the perception of those players than their actual performance. A player being overrated doesn’t mean that the player is bad by any means, but it does mean that you should avoid drafting them at their ADP and potentially even trade them if you do own them. The reverse is true for underrated players and you should always be looking to draft players who will outperform their ADP. The perceived of any player in fantasy football can fluctuate wildly each and every week, so I’ll be making this a weekly series once the season begins. Without further ado, let’s get to it:
Overrated
Kirk Cousins big 2016 has him primed to be an overdraft candidate this season.
Kirk Cousins – Quarterback (WSH)
Cousins is a fine starting quarterback. The problem is that I’ve seen him ranked as high as the 5th(!!!) best quarterback by some experts. I can’t get behind drafting captain Kirk anywhere earlier than round 7 in most leagues. A classic example of a player that’s good, but not great and certainly not worth their projected ADP in some cases.
Isaiah Crowell – Running Back (CLE)
I don’t think Crowell is a bad player, but I have an incredibly hard time buying in when I see him being ranked as the 11th or 12th best running back. Brock Osweiler or Cody Kessler will still be under center and I predict they’ll be playing from behind quite often again. Playing catch up doesn’t usually bode well for the running game and unless Crowell can find pay dirt frequently and rack up the touchdowns, it’ll be hard for him to live up to the hype even with an improved offensive line.
Carlos Hyde – Running Back (SF)
This one’s tough because I can see the arguments for drafting Hyde, but I’m avoiding him if I can this year. It’ll be his 3rd coach in 3 seasons and he has a tough time staying on the field (he’s never played a full 16 games). If he stays healthy and he receives a little more out of the backfield (which he should with Kyle Shanahan running the show), the workload is there for a strong season. I just can’t buy in at the price point of a top 15 running back given his inconsistent history and boom or bust nature.
Terrelle Pryor – Wide Receiver (WSH)
I think he’s ranked a little too high right now. While it’s true that he had over 1000 receiving yards last year without great quarterback play, there’s more competition for touches on the Redskins than last year’s Browns. He’ll have to compete with Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder for touches and I’m not sure there’s enough to go around for him to warrant be ranked slightly behind (or ahead of in some cases) Demaryius Thomas and similar receivers.
Underrated
Cam Newton – Quarterback (CAR)
I never thought I’d be writing these words, but I truly believe Cam is underrated right now. He’s only two years removed from a season with 35 passing touchdowns, 600+ rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Only costing a 6th or 7th round pick, I plan on pulling the trigger on Cam late and often this year.
Ameer Abdullah – Running Back (DET)
I’ve seen Abdullah going way later than I would have expected, even as late as round 9. That’s incredible value for a potential 1,000-yard rusher and exactly the kind of player you want to be targeting. The fact that running back is a shallow position this year only adds to his value as well.
Stefon Diggs – Wide Receiver (MIN)
Entering his third year in the league, Diggs will be just 24 years old on opening day and is coming off a campaign where he hauled in 84 catches for 903 yards and 3 touchdowns. In a PPR league that equates to roughly 196 points. I’ve seen him available in the 9th and 10th rounds of 10 man leagues and that’s great value for a wide receiver putting up those kind of points.
Jordan Matthews – Wide Receiver (BUF)
I’m not in love with the team he plays for, but he’s only a year older than Diggs and has yet to have a season with less than 800 yards receiving. Last year was his worst season statistically, but that was mostly due to a lack of touchdown catches and only playing 14 games. High expectations for last season has created a bit of a bias that he was worse than he actually was in 2016 (73 catches for 803 yards in 14 games). Take advantage of that bias if he’s there in rounds 9-12, which he should be.
Another way to look at this list is a guide of who to avoid early and who to look for late in your draft. The key to drafting a strong team is getting the maximum amount of value out of each and every pick. Taking players that are going to outperform their ADP is the goal, but the higher you pick, the harder it is for that player to outperform other players selected in that round. You’ll be able to make up the most ground in rounds 6-10, so long as your early round investments are safe and haul in the fantasy points. As always, thanks for reading and you can find me on Twitter @jth_d.
