The internet is littered with draft grades from experts and amateurs alike, but sometimes it’s easy to dish out a bunch of “As” “Bs” and “Cs” without digging into too much nuance and detail. Instead, I’m going to try to rank every single pick.
To do that, I’m going to award points based on three qualities: the overall skill/talent of the pick, the value of the pick (relative to my draft board, not ESPN), and the fit of the player on his new team. All scores are from 1-5, and all scores are absolutely, admittedly, pulled out of my butt. I’m much more “amateur” than “expert,” so take these all with a grain of salt. Also note: I’m grading the pick itself, not factoring in the trade that resulted in the pick.
So without further ado, here we go:
(1) LB Reuben Foster, San Francisco: 14 points
pick: #8 on my board, pick #31
points: 4 for skill, 5 for value, 5 for fit
Foster would have been even higher than #8 on my board if it wasn’t for character concerns. Quite frankly, he seems like a headache. But based exclusively on his play on the field, he’s a top 3 talent in this draft. The 49ers scored a huge steal here and will reap the rewards immediately. I’d be surprised if he’s not a 100 tackle player right out of the gate. Given their (historically) porous run defense, it’s one of the more fortuitous picks in recent memory.
(2) DT Jonathan Allen, Washington: 13 points
pick: #4 on my board, pick #17
points: 4 for skill, 5 for value, 4 for fit
I can understand the concerns about Allen’s shoulder injuries, which may limit his snap count and his career down the road. But for now, the Redskins will nab themselves a lineman who excels in all facets of the game and can shift throughout the line. D-line was also a major need for them, so this is a double bonus.
(3) DE Myles Garrett, Cleveland: 12 points
pick: #1 on my board, pick #1
points: 5 for skill, 3 for value, 4 for fit
Okay so it may have been the “obvious” pick, but credit the Cleveland Browns for not over-thinking this or panicking about their QB situation. Garrett is a transcendent talent that will immediately be among the best edge rushers in the NFL. I’d be surprised if he’s not sniffing at least 7 or 8 sacks next season, with an upside of 12-15 a year down the road.
(4) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston: 12 points
pick: #11 on my board, pick #12
points: 4 for skill, 3 for value, 5 for fit
Like many, I’m a little wary of Deshaun Watson’s ability to transition into the NFL. But man: what a fit. I expect Watson to win the starting job sooner than later, which is exactly what he did as a freshman in high school and a freshman in college. He has that “it” factor that teammates can rally behind. There are flaws in his game, sure, but coach Bill O’Brien should be able to milk the most out of his positives.
If I was an AFC team, I’d be very nervous right now. Even if Watson turns out to be an above-average starter, the Texans will be a force to be reckoned with, maybe as soon as 2017.
(5) LB Jarrad Davis, Detroit: 12 points
pick: #12 on my board, pick #21
points: 4 for skill, 4 for value, 4 for fit
Because of an offseason injury problem, Jarrad Davis didn’t receive the hype he deserved. He’s a tackling machine who appears to be a perfect fit for Teryl Austin’s defense. Like Reuben Foster, I expect him to start quickly and rack up 100 tackles a year.
(6) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee: 12 points
pick: #2 on my board, pick #5
points: 4 for skill, 3 for value, 5 for fit
I thought I was the only one who viewed Corey Davis as an elite top 5 talent, but apparently Jon Robinson agrees with me. He may start a little slow because of injury, but Davis has the potential to be a #1 WR for a team in desperate need of one. His ability to win in the redzone should be a particular boon for Marcus Mariota. Home run pick, even if most experts saw it as a little high.
(7) DE Charles Harris, Miami: 12 points
pick: #13 on my board, pick #22
points: 4 for skill, 4 for value, 4 for fit
On tape, Harris looks like a dominant rusher. He explodes with pure power and ferocity. He didn’t test as well as I expected him to, but he’s still a great natural fit for a Miami scheme that requires its DE’s to thrive. His ability to hold up in the running game is a concern, but I expect his pass-rushing juice to be worth it.
(8) DE Derek Barnett, Philadelphia: 12 points
pick: #6 on my board, pick #14
points: 4 for skill, 4 for value, 4 for fit
I like Barnett even more than Charles Harris, although he falls a spot behind because he was drafted higher. But make no mistake: I expect Barnett to be a good starter in the NFL who flirts with 10 sacks a year on a consistent basis. He’s #6 on my board, but I would have considered taking him over a higher-ranked player like Solomon Thomas depending on the scheme. Jim Schwartz’s wide-nine system may be one of those. He’ll add some extra pass-rushing skills to what is shaping up to be an excellent d-line.
(9) DE Solomon Thomas, San Francisco: 12 points
pick: #3 on my board, pick #3
points: 4 for skill, 3 for value, 5 for fit
If I was factoring in the trade, this may be even higher. The 49ers found the perfect d-lineman for Robert Saleh’s new scheme, as Thomas should be able to hold down the fort at DE and then shift inside to DT in sub rushing packages. He’s been compared to Michael Bennett a million times already, so his fit with a Seahawks-like defense makes too much sense to ignore.
(10) DB Malik Hooker, Indianapolis: 12 points
pick: #9 on my board, pick #15
points: 4 for skill, 4 for value, 4 for fit
Hooker’s more of a boom or bust pick, given his limited resume as a one-year starter. But if Hooker is who he looked like this past season (a true ballhawk) then he’s an excellent fit with this Colts’ defense. New GM Chris Ballard, who came over from the Chiefs, presumably envisions him as their own version of Eric Berry.
(11) DB Jamal Adams, New York Jets: 12 points
pick: #5 on my board, pick #6
points: 4 for skill, 3 for value, 5 for fit
Jamal Adams is the “safer” pick over Malik Hooker, but he’s listed behind him here because he was taken nearly ten spots earlier. I do love the fit here, where Adams can provide the Jets’ defense with a field general in their defensive backfield. I don’t expect coach Todd Bowles to be with the team much longer, but he’s a good coach for a rookie DB to learn from in the meantime.
(12) CB Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans: 12 points
pick: #10 on my board, pick #11
points: 4 for skill, 3 for value, 5 for fit
Lattimore’s hamstring injuries scare the hell out of me, but other than that this appears to be a perfect fit. You have the #1 cornerback prospect going to a team in desperate need of corners. Hopefully, he (and his hamstrings) hold up.
(13) CB Gareon Conley, Oakland: 11 points
pick: #16 on my board, pick #24
points: 4 for skill, 4 for value, 3 for fit
For this, I’m projecting Conley will be found innocent of the recent rape charges. That’s a HUGE gamble to bet on (as the Raiders will essentially punt their first-round pick if he’s guilty), but I appreciate the fact that Conley (allegedly) took and passed a lie detector test. He was the clear #2 corner on my board, so he’s a good value pick for the Raiders at this spot.
(14) CB Tre’Davious White, Buffalo
pick: #30 on my board, pick #27
points: 3 for skill, 3 for value, 4 for fit
I’m not as high on Tre’Davious White in terms of talent — to me, he’s lumped in with a huge pack of tier “B” corners in this draft that could have easily gone in R2. Still, you have to love the fit here in Buffalo. The Bills lost Stephon Gilmore, creating a big need on the outside. I also love handing new coaches players in the realm of their expertise; new coach Sean McDermott (a former secondary coach) should allow White to get up to speed quickly.
(15) DE Taco Charlton, Dallas: 10 points
pick: #22 on my board, pick #28
points: 3 for skill, 4 for value, 3 for fit
The Cowboys have needed some DE’s for a while now, so this “fit” should be even higher. I only gave it a “3” because I like the long-armed Taco Charlton more in a 3-4 scheme than Dallas’ traditional 4-3. Still, he should be playing plenty of snaps for Rod Marinelli’s unit. He actually has a similar frame to former Marinelli standout Simeon Rice, although I don’t see the same pass rushing instincts out of Charlton at the moment.
(16) LB Haason Reddick, Arizona: 10 points
pick: #17 on my board, pick #13
points: 4 for skill, 2 for value, 4 for fit
I considered the late-bloomer Haason Reddick one of the riskiest first round talents. He came on at Temple late, and doesn’t have amazing instincts at ILB right now. However, I love the fit here in Arizona. Reddick’s going to a talent-rich defense where he can be let loose and wreak havoc. He’ll be able to play inside, outside, and especially thrive in sub packages as a nickel linebacker.
(17) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville: 10 points
pick: #7 on my board, pick #4
points: 4 for skill, 3 for value, 3 for fit
I have no doubt that Fournette will tear up the AFC South and maybe rumble for 1000 yards right out of the gate. My only question with this pick is: will that actually move the needle for the Jags? They still have big question marks at OL and at QB (in my mind), so I can see Fournette making more of an impact in fantasy drafts and rookie of the year voting than in the standings.
(18) OT Garett Bolles, Denver: 10 points
pick: #31 on my board, pick #20
points: 3 for skill, 2 for value, 5 for fit
I didn’t rank Bolles very high on my board because he’s over-aged (at 25) and a one-year starter at Utah. There’s a lot of risk with this pick. But again: this fit is perfect for him. The Broncos had perhaps the shakiest tackle combination in the league, so Bolles should be able to jump right in and make an impact right away.
(19) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay: 9 points
pick: #14 on my board, pick #19
points: 4 for skill, 3 for value, 2 for fit
In terms of talent level, you can’t argue with O.J. Howard or this pick. I only question whether the Bucs needed Howard, or viewed him as a luxury. Personally, a DE likes Charles Harris may have made more sense from a fit perspective. Still, Dirk Koetter and company are clearly building their team around Jameis Winston, with additional weapons like DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard arriving just in time for Hard Knocks. You either win a title with a great QB or a great pass rush, and the team is clearly banking on the former. Their offseason moves suggest they believe Winston can make a major leap and be a MVP candidate in time.
(20) OT Ryan Ramcyzk, New Orleans: 9 points
pick: #27 on my board, pick #32
points: 3 for skill, 3 for value, 3 for fit
I like Ramcyzk a little more than Garett Bolles, although he’s ranked lower because he doesn’t fit an immediate need. But should his hip injury not flare up again, the Saints should pencil him into the lineup in 2018.
(21) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina: 9 points
pick: #18 on my board, pick #8
points: 4 for skill, 2 for value, 3 for fit
I believe McCaffrey will thrive on Carolina as the “yin” to Jonathan Stewart‘s “yang.” His ability to contribute in the passing game should be a particular blessing to Cam Newton‘s efficiency. I’m not grading this pick too high though because RBs in the top 10 aren’t great value plays.
(22) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants: 9 points
pick: #39 on my board, pick #23
points: 3 for skill, 2 for value, 4 for fit
Engram at #23 was a little rich for my blood, but… my oh my, how scary may the Giants be next year? Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Brandon Marshall, and Evan Engram? It’s a receiving corps that could rival any in the NFL.
(23) LB T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh: 9 points
pick: #41 on my board, pick #30
points: 3 for skill, 2 for value, 4 for fit
File T.J. Watt into the category of a player that was overdrafted (in my mind) but landed in a great situation. He’s a power rusher that should be helped immensely by the presence of the ultimate power-rushing OLB in James Harrison. Watt’s a late bloomer at Wisconsin who may need some time to develop, but he’s in a great environment to do that.
(24) WR John Ross, Cincinnati: 9 points
pick: #20 on my board, pick #9
points: 4 for skill, 2 for value, 3 for fit
This feels a little low, because I fully expect John Ross to provide some explosive plays for the Bengals next year. A.J. Green, John Ross, and Tyler Eifert could give the Giants a run for their money. I’m not quite as high on the pick as others may be, because Ross carries a lot of natural risk to him. He’s a one-year standout with injury history; he’s not someone I would count on to hold up as a longtime starter.
(25) DE Tak McKinley, Atlanta: 9 points
pick: #21 on my board, pick #26
points: 3 for skill, 3 for value, 3 for fit
The Falcons needed a pass-rusher to complement Vic Beasley in the worst way, so McKinley would appear to be a godsend for them. I’m only grading this fit as a “3” though, because like Taco Charlton in Dallas, he doesn’t appear to be an ideal fit for the team. Personally I’d prefer McKinley to go to a 3-4 defense where he can utilize his explosiveness. Dan Quinn uses light-in-the-pants rushers as DE/OLB hybrids (like Vic Beasley) but I may prefer a studier DE to complement Beasley instead. I expect McKinley to provide some burst on third downs, but right now, I’m not sure he can be a full-time starter for the team.
(26) CB Adoree Jackson, Tenessee: 9 points
pick: #35 on my board, pick #18
points: 3 for skill, 2 for value, 4 for fit
I like Adoree Jackson a lot, but I expected him to be a value pick in R2, not a mid 1st rounder. He reminds you some of former Titan corner Pacman Jones with his speed, cover skills, and ability to provide a jolt in the return game. He may take some time to develop his skills though; I wouldn’t count on him as a starter until 2018.
(27) DB Jabrill Peppers, Cleveland: 9 points
pick: #28 on my board, pick #25
points: 3 for skill, 3 for value, 3 for fit
For all the hype and hubbub about Jabrill Peppers, he went about where he should have gone. He’ll be a solid starter for the Browns as a safety and nickel ‘backer, but I don’t know if he’s ever going to be the star he was purported to be throughout his college career.
(28) TE David Njoku, Cleveland: 9 points
pick: #32 on my board, pick #29
points: 3 for skill, 3 for value, 3 for fit
The third Browns pick was my least favorite of the bunch. Njoku should be a factor in the passing game, but he’s not a strong enough force in the running game to make me think he’ll be anything more than an Eric Ebron type in the NFL. Given all the holes on the roster, I would have liked to see the team go elsewhere here, especially with other “move” TEs available later on.
(29) CB Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore: 8 points
pick: #34 on my board, pick #16
points: 3 for skill, 2 for value, 3 for fit
This low rank feels a bit harsh, in hindsight. There’s nothing wrong with Marlon Humphrey on the Ravens; he’s a big talented corner who should be able to develop into a starter by 2018. My only problem with it, really, is value. I don’t think Humphrey was a clear notch above the lump of corners who went in the 20s, or even the group that may go in R2 like Florida’s Quincy Wilson or Iowa’s Desmond King.
(30) QB Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City: 8 points
pick: #37 on my board, pick #10
points: 3 for skill, 2 for value, 3 for fit
This low ranking may come back to bite me in the ass when Andy Reid grooms Pat Mahomes into a Pro Bowl QB. But still, I don’t like the value play here at #10.
In my mind, Mahomes would have made an excellent pick in late R1 or early R2 as a developmental project. Locking him in at a top 10 price feels exorbitant to me, hence the low grades.
I do have faith in Andy Reid’s coaching ability (he’s a top 5 coach in my mind), and clearly, he made a decisive choice here. In fact, this pick says as much about his view of Alex Smith and the Chiefs team as it does about Mahomes. Reid is saying: the current Chiefs were not good enough to contend. He feels like they peaked. Smith’s above-average and the defense (particularly the stellar LB unit) is aging and injury-prone. Reid must feel like he needs to take a step back in order to take two steps forward.
Personally, I wouldn’t have gone with this bold of an approach. This is a Chiefs team that has gone 11-5, 9-7, 11-5, and 12-4. With some tweaking, they could have stayed right in the playoff mix. I would have looked to replace Alex Smith down the road, but with a developmental project in R2 or R3 or so. But then again, what the hell do I know.
(31) WR Mike Williams, L.A. Chargers: 8 points
pick: #19 on my board, pick #7
points: 4 for skill, 2 for value, 2 for fit
I could have seen the Chargers going in several different directions with this top 10 pick, but I didn’t expect one of them to be WR.
There are several problems with this pick, in my mind. The first is the player himself. Mike Williams showed beastly talent that reminded you of Alshon Jeffery, but he’s also injury prone and doesn’t get great separation on his routes. Taking him at #7 feels like a stretch.
I also don’t like the fit here. Presumably, the Chargers know something that I don’t, but Keenan Allen should be back in 2018. Even if he’s not, the team had some solid WRs options in promising Tyrell Williams, steady Dontrelle Inman, and speedy Travis Benjamin. TE Hunter Henry also projects as a top-level target. Quite frankly, I don’t see the need to throw another big body into this mix.
(32) QB Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago: 8 points
pick: #33 on my board, pick #2
points: 3 for skill, 1 for value, 4 for fit
If you’re still reading this, here’s what you’re waiting for: another chance to shit on the Bears for trading up for Mitchell Trubisky.
But let’s be fair: I actually think the fit makes some sense here. One-year starter Trubisky is going to need some time to develop, and he’s going to be afforded sometime behind Mike Glennon. Glennon’s definitely capable of starting for a full year, which would allow Trubisky the chance to develop slowly.
In theory. But the problem with this pick even compared to Patrick Mahomes, is that John Fox and Ryan Pace are NOT guaranteed to be around for the long haul. If the team starts slowly, they may feel pressure to rush out Mitch Trubisky before he’s ready. If Trubisky struggles (as he probably will), you could have John Fox get fired, and a new coach come in that didn’t have anything to do with this draft pick. It’s the exact same scenario that happened with the Rams and Jeff Fisher last year, and we all saw how that turned out.
