Could Masahiro Tanaka leave the Yankees this winter?
To say that this season has been a roller coaster ride for Yankees right-handed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka is a gross understatement. In the first half of the season, Tanaka struggled heading into the All-Star break, going 7-8 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.37 WHIP across 18 starts. In only 102.0 innings pitched, Tanaka gave up 113 hits and 23 home runs, which averages out to 1.11 hits allowed per inning, and .23 home runs allowed per inning. Although Tanaka’s strikeouts were up, having struck out 103 batters, an average of one per inning, the first-half did not leave Yankee fans optimistic about their injury-prone ace.
In the second-half, Tanaka was not perfect but clearly had taken major strides to get back to his ace status. In 76.1 innings across 12 starts, Tanaka went 6-4, with a significantly improved 3.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. With his splitter moving once again, Tanaka gave up home runs at a much lower rate in the second half (.16 home runs allowed per inning) and increased his strikeout rate, striking out 91 batters for an average of about 1.19 strikeouts per inning. After opponents hit .276 against him in the first-half, Tanaka’s batting average against fell to .230, and his walk rate fell from .26 walks per inning to .18 walks per inning.
When you put the two halves together, Tanaka finished with a winning record of 13-12, throwing 178.1 innings across 30 starts, with a 4.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 194 strikeouts, a career high. While Tanaka struggled on the road, he remained an elite starter at home all season, finishing 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and .223 batting average against in fifteen starts. Additionally, Tanaka was dominant in his last start of the season, getting the win against the Blue Jays after pitching seven innings of no run, three-hit, fifteen-strikeout baseball.
Which brings us to today; Game 5 of the American League Championship Series, with the Yankees tied 2-2 in the series against the Houston Astros. Coming into today, Tanaka had rattled off two fantastic postseason starts, winning Game 3 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians 1-0 by only allowing three baserunners in seven scoreless innings, striking out seven. In Game 1 of the ALCS, Tanaka got the ball and was the tough-luck loser in a 2-1 Yankees loss, but kept the Yankees in the game by limiting the Astros to four hits and two runs over six innings.
Matched up against Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel for the second time in a week, Tanaka delivered a start for the ages, pitching seven scoreless innings, striking out eight, and allowing three hits in a 5-0 Yankee win. Most importantly, behind Tanaka, the Yankees are now one win away from their first World Series appearance since 2009.
Since his start against the Blue Jays to end the regular season, Tanaka has struck out 31 batters, and given up 13 hits and a mere two runs in his last 27 innings pitched, a microscopic 0.67 ERA. Which begs the question; given his incredible finish to the season, will Tanaka opt-out of his current contract with the Yankees and become a free agent?
When Tanaka, 28, signed his seven-year, $155 million contract with the Yankees in 2013, his contract contained an early termination clause after the 2017 season. If Tanaka chooses to remain with the Yankees, he will be paid $22 million in 2018 and 2019, and $23 million in 2020, for a total of $67 million over the next three seasons. Given his injury history and still partially torn UCL, it may not be in Tanaka’s best interest to leave all that money on the table and test free agency. On the flip side, the last time that above average starting-pitchers hit the free agent market, they were all paid handsomely, including Zack Greinke’s six-year, $206.5 million contract, Johnny Cueto’s six-year, $130 million contract, and Jordan Zimmerman’s five-year, $110 million contract. Even last season, in a down market for starting pitchers, Rich Hill was able to land a three-year, $48 million contract at the age of 37.
Given his success at Yankee Stadium and his comfort level in New York, I don’t see Tanaka leaving the Yankees anytime soon. Rather, I think Tanaka will opt-out of his contract, only to sign a new, longer extension with the Yankees that will keep Tanaka in New York for the next five to six years, adding at least two seasons onto his current deal. To be honest, with Tanaka time back like never before and the Yankees on the verge of the World Series, they may have no choice
