Once Franklin Barreto adjusts, he profiles as a high-level MLB player.
Gone are the Moneyball days and gone are 2012, ’13, and ’14. Athletics have seen their team gutted by free agency and trade since 2014, winning no more than 75 games in a season since. Now, with the World Champion Houston Astros set to dominate the AL West for the foreseeable future, the Athletics must develop young talent in order to hope to compete with the Texan offensive juggernaut. The Sonny Gray trade was definitely a step in the right direction, but Billy Beane and company will have many more difficult decisions to make in the coming years before they are ready to compete again.
Top Player 2017
Khris Davis was the A’s best player in 2017, and it wasn’t a close race. The left fielder’s player rater value of 6.45 was nearly double that of his next most valuable teammate, Ryon Healy who scored 3.67. Davis, one of the league’s premier power hitters, slugged 43 home runs in 2017, second only to Aaron Judge in the American League. Accompanying those homers were 110 RBI, 91 R, and a .247/.336/.528 batting line. Davis’s biggest improvement from 2016 to ’17 was his increased walk rate—from 6.9% to 11.2%. His 2016 rate was an outlier from his career rate, so it was very reassuring to see Davis maintain his power output while bringing his walk rate back to the double digit rate that he put up throughout the minors.
A late bloomer, Davis is going into his age 30 season and still has two years of arbitration remaining. While the A’s upper management might be inclined to hang onto him and his team control, this offseason may be the perfect time to trade him. If this were to happen, which may not be likely, his value would almost certainly increase, the Coliseum being one of the largest parks in baseball.
All this said, I would avoid Davis in standard 5×5 leagues in 2018. The increased power trend in baseball makes the power first or power only players significantly less valuable. Davis will be a detriment to your AVG and SB, which are now the sparsest and most valuable batting categories. While Davis still has value in the mid rounds of your drafts, especially in points or OBP leagues that reward him for walks, it may be worth taking a pass on the A’s left fielder in 2018, investing in AVG and SB early, and finding your power in later rounds.
Targets
My favorite target on the A’s is SS Marcus Semien. Though he played only 85 games in 2017 due to a wrist injury and subsequent surgery, Semien was still able to be productive in that limited playing time. The Athletics shortstop hit 10 home runs and stole a career high 12 bases in 2017 to accompany a .249/.325/.398 slash line. In 155 and 159 respective games in 2015 and 2016 Semien only stole 11 and 10 bases. His increase in SB is a very encouraging sign, as an intentional decision to run more often may give him legitimate 20/20 potential next season.
The best part of the Marcus Semien package right now is his draft price. In the early Rotographs mocks Semien was taken in only one of the four 15-team drafts. This lack of hype may not last all offseason, but, as of October, when the drafts took place, Semien is going undrafted and can be had for a last round pick. If this trend continues, I expect to have him on all of my teams as a late round addition that is only one year removed from a 27 home run season.
Stayaways
I will not be drafting any of Oakland’s starting pitchers for 2018. If we look specifically at Sean Manaea, Jharel Cotton, Kendall Graveman, and Andrew Triggs, I believe that none of these pitchers will be worth owning, even in deep leagues. All four of these pitchers posted an ERA over 4.19 in 2017 and a FIP over 4.10. Each of these pitchers are streamers at best and should not be drafted except in 15 team leagues or deeper.
Deep Sleepers
Do you play in a deep, deep league and hate investing early picks in closers? Boy, do I have a player for you! No, it’s not Blake Treinen and it’s not even Santiago Casilla. I’m talking about Frankie Montas. Working his first full MLB season this year out of Oakland’s bullpen, Montas floundered. He put up a 7.03 ERA while walking 11.8% of the batters he faced in 32 innings. While command and control are still issues for the 24-year-old reliever, stuff certainly isn’t. Montas boasts a fastball that can touch triple digits, a nasty upper 80s slider, and will occasionally throw an average changeup. His dominant stuff will allow him to strike out over 20% of the batters he faces, and the Athletics would love for someone in their bullpen to step up and take command of their wide open closer role. If Blake Treinen struggles in April, I will be looking to add Montas in hopes that he will learn to command his pitches and close out games.
Impact Prospects
The Athletics top prospect Franklin Barreto made his MLB debut last season and, in a word, struggled. In a sentence laden with statistics, the 21-one-year-old shortstop hit .197/.250/.352 in 76 plate appearances while striking out 43% of the time. His work with Oakland was far from spectacular, however, in AAA Nashville, Barreto was much more successful putting up a .290/.339/.456, hitting 15 homers, and stealing 15 bags. I believe this is much closer to his true talent level and that we could see similar production from him as soon as 2018.
I would be remiss if I didn’t take this opportunity to discuss one of my favorite prospects in the game, Jorge Mateo. The 22-year-old speedster was one of the pieces in the trade that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees this past season, and I believe the change of venue will only help his career path. Mateo’s calling card is his 80 grade speed: the man is fast. The past few seasons have seen him shift from shortstop to centerfield, where Boog Powell (no, not that Boog Powell) doesn’t represent much of a roadblock to playing time in the majors. If given a starting job and a green light on the base paths, Mateo has the potential to put up a 40-60 steal season.
