The Philadelphia Phillies finished 2017 with the 66-92 record, earning them the third overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. The past few years have been rough for Phillies fans, a far cry from the days of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Cliff Lee. However, with young talent starting to trickle up to the major league squad, the Phillies may be ready to start making steps towards breaking .500 for the first time since 2012.
Top Player- 2017
Aaron Nola was the Phillies best player last season.
The Phillies best player in 2017 was RHP Aaron Nola. The 24-year-old starter took a huge step forward in 2017, pitching to a 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 168 innings while striking out 184 batters. This performance earned him the distinction of the 26th best starting pitcher in standard ESPN leagues this past season.
2017 saw Nola lean more heavily on his changeup, increasing its usage drastically from 8.7% in 2016 to 15.6% this past season. That changeup is a fantastic weapon, producing a 67% groundball rate. I expect Nola to learn to rely on his change and improve even further in 2018. I have Nola ranked 17th in my starting pitching rankings, and, with his price sitting around the 22nd SP off the boards (92nd overall), I hope to snag him for my squad before others have the opportunity.
Target
While I love Nola and his sky-high upside, he is not my favorite value target in Philadelphia. That distinction belongs to Cesar Hernandez. The Phillies 2B has hit for a .294 batting average over the last two seasons and has maintained a 10.6% walk rate in that time. His contact and plate discipline skills make him a viable starting option in both AVG and OBP leagues, especially when his plus speed is factored into the equation. In 2016, Hernandez stole 17 bases, but he was caught stealing 13 times, not the best success rate. This past season, however, we saw Hernandez steal 15 bags while only being caught 5 times. If he can continue this newfound efficiency, his new manager, Gabe Kapler, should give him the green light more often.
Another much-improved facet of Hernandez’s game is his pop. Let me preface by saying that Cesar won’t be challenging Stanton for the home run lead any day soon, but, in 2017, he hit 9 dingers, a career best. The increased power is more evident when you see that his ISO increased from .099 in 2016 to .127 this past season. Blame the juiced ball if you’d like, but the results are there.
Cesar Hernandez is going undrafted in some early mocks, the FanGraphs mocks have him taken 245th overall. The 28-year-old offers a very safe source of AVG and OBP, a handful of HR, and a healthy dose of R and SB. If you fail to secure one of the top 2B early in your drafts, I would simply wait and take Hernandez with one of your last picks. He is a safe and reliable asset at a fantastic price. Even with the potential call-up of Phillies 2B prospect Scott Kingery, I believe Hernandez can be moved to 3B or SS and still receive enough at-bats to stay fantasy relevant in 2018.
Stay away
While I trust that Hernandez will receive regular at-bats in 2018, the same cannot be said for the remainder of the Phillies infield, save for Rhys Hoskins. The Phillies are currently rostering Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Freddy Galvis, and J.P. Crawford, with the aforementioned Scott Kingery, set to arrive in early-mid 2018. None of the players have seen time outside of the infield, so we have ourselves a playing time issue, barring a trade.
That said, I will not be rostering any of the infielders listed above, excluding Hernandez. I think Franco and Galvis are prime candidates to be traded off of the team to make room for Crawford and Kingery, but, until that trade happens, none of these players are a safe bet for regular playing time. For this reason, I think it would be unwise to invest in any of the Phillies infielders, save for Cesar Hernandez and Rhys Hoskins.
Deep Sleeper
I have never been one to invest early picks in top catchers; I would simply prefer to spend my picks elsewhere. I usually end up taking a catcher in the later rounds of my drafts, settling for a player that has the potential to break out and be a fair contributor at an otherwise dismal position. One such catcher this year is Jorge Alfaro.
At 24-years-old, Alfaro impressed in his late 2017 stint in the majors. He slashed .318/.360/.540, though much of that can be attributed to a .420 BABIP. Alfaro should see the majority of starts as the Phillies catcher in 2017, and, despite a swing-and-miss tendency, has a very real chance to hit 20 home runs. I expect his batting average to drop by 100 points, but, if he could better learn to recognize pitches outside of the zone, he has the potential to be a top 10 catcher for years to come.
Impact Prospects
The Phillies are a young team with many newcomers being called up to contribute at the big league level. The aforementioned Alfaro and Kingery should see regular at-bats in 2018, along with the highly touted Rhys Hoskins. To satisfy the masses, my predicted stat line for Hoskins in 2018 is .260/.340/.510, with 31 HR, 90 RBI, and 80 R. The Phillies should also see good production from OF Nick Williams. The 23-year-old saw just over 300 plate appearances with the Phils this year and did not disappoint, batting .288. These four should each get regular at-bats, while others like J.P. Crawford and Roman Quinn may see time in the majors, but they will likely not have enough opportunity at the plate to be fantasy relevant next season.
*Please note that since the writing of this article, the Phillies have signed free agents Carlos Santana, Pat Neshek, and Tommy Hunter.
