Brad Hand took a major step up last season.
I have been accused of being a Padres fan in my fantasy circles. In one deep dynasty league, I own Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Austin Hedges, Ryan Schimpf, and Jose Pirela. I traded away Hunter Renfroe and Brad Hand and tried to acquire Yangervis Solarte and Dinelson Lamet. While the Pods may not be the best team in the league, they have a few interesting players that could be fantasy relevant and may even offer value on draft day.
In this series I will look at every MLB team individually, breaking down each squad’s most interesting fantasy relevant players for the 2018 season. This will include my personal favorite targets and players to avoid, some deep sleepers that should be off your league’s radar, and prospects that may have an impact on fantasy rosters. The order of the teams is based on the amount of turnover from free agency and trade that is expected from each squad; it wouldn’t be prudent to write about the Royals when it is unclear who will play 1B, 3B, CF, RF, or SS in 2018.
Without further ado, let’s jump in and take a look at San Diego’s roster.
If we use the ESPN Player Rater, the top San Diego player from 2017 was RP Brad Hand. The long reliever turned closer took a massive step forward in 2016 when he was used exclusively out of the bullpen for the first time, striking out 111 and posting a 2.92 ERA in 89.1 innings for the Padres. Hand was even better in 2017 after finally getting the opportunity to close out games. He posted a 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, with 21 saves and 16 holds in 79.1 IP. His K% increased from a stellar 30.5% in 2016 to 33.4% in 2017, while he simultaneously cut his BB% dramatically (2016- 9.9%, 2017- 6.4%). All this boils down to Brad Hand being one of the best relievers in the Majors, however, his strength over the past two seasons has been his ability and the Padres’ tendency to pitch him in multiple innings. Now that he has a solid command of the closer’s role, Hand may see less of these opportunities throughout the year. Despite this, and despite his team’s poor offense, I expect to have Hand in my top 10 closers for 2018.
Targets
My two favorite draft day targets on the San Diego roster are two players already briefly mentioned in this article. I believe Wil Myers and Manuel Margot will each offer surplus value in March. An early set of industry mock drafts (https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2018-too-early-mock-drafts-adp/) has Myers off the board at 49 overall, the 9th 1B, while Margot is taken 192nd overall, the 58th OF taken. Myers disappointed many owners in batting average this season (.243), but still amassed 30 HR and 20 SB. If you can get 20 SB from your first baseman, that frees up a lot of opportunities to chase power and average throughout the rest of the draft. In his upcoming age 27 season, I see Myers as a lock for 25/25 if he remains healthy, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve upon his batting average as well.
Manny Margot will be just 23 next season and offers a tantalizing high average and high SB skillset. 2017 saw him hit 13 HR, and while the “juiced ball” may be to blame for that, it was nonetheless a welcome surprise. If his price remains as low as it is in the mocks above, I foresee having Margot on most, if not all of my fantasy rosters. He could easily amass 10 HR and 30 SB while hitting near .300 at the top of the San Diego lineup. I am tagging Margot as a potential draft day steal. Hopefully, the hype around the San Diego center fielder stays low enough throughout the offseason to keep his price low so that we can all reap the rewards.
Stayaways
While there is optimism to be had, this is still the Padres. Not everyone is a winner. Dinelson Lamet needs to cut down on his BB% (11.1%) before I’m willing to invest. Neither Luis Perdomo nor Clayton Richard has a K% (16.5% & 17.6%) worth risking your ratios. In 2017, Jose Pirela and Cory Spangenberg had a .343 and .342 BABIP respectively in the majors, making it unlikely that either of them improves upon their performance in 2017. Any or all of these players could be a worthwhile late-round pick in deep leagues, but they ought to have a “Drafter Beware” sticker on the package.
Deep Sleepers
Though not an unknown commodity, Yangervis Solarte offers value in his positional flexibility. In 2018 he will qualify at 2B, 3B, and, most importantly, SS. This mix makes him an excellent late round pick for a backup SS or a flexible utility infielder in any format.
Impact Prospects
The upper levels of the Padres farm system have been left a bit depleted after calling up Margot and Hunter Renfroe to play full-time in 2017. What is remaining on the farm is still impressive, though no prospect jumps out as likely to see significant time with the big league roster in 2018. Right-handed starter Cal Quantrill might find himself in the discussion for a rotation spot if he performs well at AA San Antonio early in 2018. 20-year-old infielder Luis Urias found success in San Antonio in 2017, though I think it unlikely that he will see regular Major League at-bats in 2018. Aside from these two, I would not expect to see many contributions from the Padres minor league system in 2018.
