Yu Darvish has finally made his decision.
With pitchers and catchers days away from reporting to spring training, the first huge domino of the free agent season has fallen, with the Cubs signing starting pitcher Yu Darvish, the top free agent pitcher on the market, to a six-year, $126 million contract. The contract, first reported by Ken Rosenthal, includes incentives that could push the deal to a total of $150 million, as well as an opt-out clause after the second season. Darvish, 31, split last season between the Rangers and Dodgers, going 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts in 186.2 innings pitched. A 3.8 WAR pitcher a year ago, Darvish thrived after moving to the National League, with his ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 dropping from 4.01 to 3.44, 1.168 to 1.148, and 3.0 to 2.4 respectively, while his K/9 rose from 9.7 to 11.1. According to Jon Tayler of Sports Illustrated, Darvish ranked in the top 15 last season in avoiding contact (73.7% rate) swing and miss percentage (12.3%) and strikeout percentage (27.3%). Aside from the Cubs, the Brewers, Yankees, Twins, Rangers, and Dodgers were known to have interest in Darvish, although the Yankees and Dodgers didn’t make an offer in the same ballpark as the Cubs because of their pursuit of getting under the luxury tax for this season.
For his career, Darvish is 56-42 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, and 11.0 K/9 in 832.1 innings pitched. Despite being armed with six pitches, including a fastball in the upper 90s and a curveball that dips into the 60s, Darvish’s market was clouded by a dreadful World Series performance that saw him last a total of 3.1 innings in two starts. In the World Series, Darvish went 0-2 with a 21.60 ERA and 3.300 WHIP, putting a sour last impression in the mind of front offices. However, it should be noted that in 24 starts against NL opponents, Darvish has pitched well, with a 3.13 ERA, .611 OPS against, and 33.1 K%. Additionally, according to Fangraphs, Darvish’s average fastball velocity of 94.2 miles per hour last season was a career high, which means he is showing no ill effects of the Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the beginning of the 2016 season.
With the deal, Darvish becomes the third player in Cubs history to sign a $100 million contract, joining Jason Heyward’s 8-year $184 million contract from after the 2015 season, and Jon Lester’s 6-year $155 million contract from after the 2014 season. At a $21 AAV, the Darvish’s contract is the 19th largest in baseball history for a starting pitcher. However, when compared to some of the other biggest salaries for starting pitchers in baseball today, the Darvish deal should be a bargain for the Cubs given his production, as he had at almost double the WAR of all the pitchers below last season.
- David Price, $30,000,000: 1.7 WAR in 2017
- Felix Hernandez, $26.857 million: 0.8 WAR in 2017
- Jordan Zimmerman, $24 million: 0.3 WAR in 2017
- Rick Porcello, $21.125 million: -0.2 WAR in 2017
- James Shields, $21 million: 0.2 WAR in 2017
- Homer Bailey, $21 million: -0.6 WAR in 2017
- Johnny Cueto, $21 million: 1.6 WAR in 2017
- Jeff Samardzjia, $19.8 million: 2.2 WAR in 2017
- Adam Wainwright, $19.5 million: 0.8 WAR in 2017
With Darvish, the Cubs have now remade their World Series-winning rotation from 2015, replacing John Lackey, Jason Hammel, and Jake Arrieta with Darvish, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood. With those three, along with Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester, the Cubs should have one of the best rotations in baseball this season; below is where they rank in terms of last years postseason teams. (All WAR is measured in WAR for Pitchers from the 2017 season, taking any hitting value out of national pitchers’ WAR totals.)
Washington Nationals: 23.1 WAR
Max Scherzer: 7.3 WAR
Gio Gonzalez: 6.6 WAR
Stephen Strasburg: 6.5 WAR
Tanner Roark: 1.3 WAR
A.J. Cole: 1.1 WAR
Arizona Diamondbacks: 21.0 WAR
Zack Greinke: 6.0 WAR
Robbie Ray: 5.0 WAR
Zack Godley: 4.4 WAR
Patrick Corbin: 2.9 WAR
Taijuan Walker: 2.7 WAR
Cleveland Indians: 21.0 WAR
Corey Kluber: 8.0 WAR
Carlos Carrasco: 5.4 WAR
Trevor Bauer: 3.1 WAR
Mike Clevinger: 3.2 WAR
Danny Salazar: 1.3 WAR
Houston Astros: 15.8 WAR
Justin Verlander: 6.4 WAR
Dallas Keuchel: 3.9 WAR
Gerrit Cole: 2.8 WAR (With Pirates last season)
Charlie Morton: 1.8 WAR
Lance McCullers: 0.9 WAR
New York Yankees: 15.7 WAR
Luis Severino: 5.3 WAR
Masahiro Tanaka: 1.0 WAR
Sonny Gray: 2.7 WAR
Jordan Montgomery: 2.9 WAR
CC Sabathia: 2.8 WAR
Chicago Cubs: 12.7 WAR
Yu Darvish: 3.9 WAR
Kyle Hendricks: 3.5 WAR
Jose Quintana: 2.4 WAR (With White Sox/Cubs)
Tyler Chatwood: 2.2 WAR (With Rockies last season)
Jon Lester: 0.7 WAR
Colorado Rockies: 11.4 WAR
Jon Gray: 3.1 WAR
Tyler Anderson: 1.3 WAR
Chad Bettis: 0.6 WAR
German Marquez: 3.1 WAR
Kyle Freeland: 3.3 WAR
Boston Red Sox: 10.8 WAR
Chris Sale: 6.0 WAR
David Price: 1.7 WAR
Rick Porcello: -0.2 WAR
Drew Pomeranz: 4.0 WAR
Steven Wright: -0.7 WAR
Los Angeles Dodgers: 10.4 WAR
Clayton Kershaw: 4.6 WAR
Rich Hill: 2.2 WAR
Alex Wood: 3.3 WAR
Kenta Maeda: 0.2 WAR
Hyun-Jin Ryu: 1.2 WAR
Minnesota Twins: 6.7 WAR
Ervin Santana: 4.6 WAR
Jose Berrios: 1.7 WAR
Kyle Gibson: 0.2 WAR
Phil Hughes: -0.6 WAR
Adalberto Mejia: 0.8 WAR
While the Cubs rank right in the middle of the pack (6th) of the last year’s playoff rotations, Darvish and Quintana should improve thanks to a full season in the National League (and away from the DH), and Chatwood will look to build upon his career road totals of 21-17 record and a 3.31 ERA. With those three joining Kyle Hendricks, one of the game’s most overlooked ace, and Jon Lester, baseball’s ultimate gamer, the Cubs have effectively rebuilt their rotation as they look to make it to the postseason for the fourth straight season, and to the World Series for the second time over that span after not doing so for over 70 years.
- TAGS
- Chicago Cubs
- MLB Free Agency
- Yu Darvish
