Kyle Schwarber may not be as untouchable as we once thought.
With the internal luck the Cubs have had in recent years with starting pitching, namely the breakouts of both Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta, it’s easy to forget that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer’s original plan was to draft and build bats, then trade bats for pitching. The Cubs have managed to avoid making any blockbuster trades for starters so far, (they did give up a hefty package of prospects for a certain reliever last season) but it would seem that the time for such a trade is nigh. The questions that linger are who do the Cubs target, and what current Cubs will be on the trade block in the next couple months?
Following the 2017 season, the Cubs could see both John Lackey and Jake Arrieta leave the organization as they hit free agency. John Lackey will likely retire (he’ll be 39 by the 2018 season), while Arrieta will probably be asking for more than the Cubs will be willing to pay. Additionally, the fifth spot in the rotation is still uncertain. Eddie Butler has made a couple solid starts for the club, but he has yet to establish himself as a long-term major league starter.
Given the uncertainty surrounding much of their rotation, the Cubs are probably looking for a young pitcher that they can control for at least a few years. Some names that continue to surface include Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Yu Darvish, and even Jose Quintana. Archer seems like the best (but possibly most expensive) option. The 28-year old righty is under team control through 2022 and previously played under Cubs manager Joe Maddon when he managed the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are sitting near the bottom of a competitive American League East at 26-26 with little hope of climbing much higher this season, so it’s not unreasonable to assume they’ll be sellers when the deadline comes around.
A trade for Sonny Gray has its risks but also has a high possible reward. Like the Rays, the Oakland Athletics (22-27) are hanging around the bottom of the AL West with little expectations of moving up. Gray had an incredible 2015 season when he posted an ERA of 2.73 and finished third in Cy Young voting. His 2016 season, however, was injury-riddled, and even when he was healthy he wasn’t great. His 2016 ERA of 5.69 was the worst of his career. Gray’s 2017 season has been off to a good start. Opponents are hitting just .216 against him and his ERA is at a respectable 3.34. If the Cubs feel strongly that Gray can avoid the disabled list, he’s as good of a fit as anyone.
The other two starters mentioned have more variables surrounding them as to whether or not they’ll be available to the Cubs. White Sox general manager Rick Hahn has expressed his unwillingness to trade with the Cubs, so the Cubs would likely be subject to a premium price for Quintana if the White Sox were willing to deal with the Cubs at all. Yu Darvish’s Texas Rangers are sitting just one game under .500, so they probably haven’t ruled out contending for the postseason this season yet. If the Rangers consider themselves in contention near the deadline, there’s no way that Darvish would be available.
The Cubs’ best potential trade assets will be infielders. Ian Happ has been the talk of the club of late as he makes a compelling bid for Javier Baez’s job, and because of his success in the majors, he’s forced the conversation of trading Baez in his place. Any major trade would likely feature one of those two-second basemen as the headliner, likely with Jeimer Candelario on the side. Candelario is all but certain to go since he plays first and third base were two perennial MVP candidates cast some pretty long shadows. Some have suggested Kyle Schwarber could be traded following his slow start and because of the liability that he is on defense (making him particularly attractive to an American League suitor), but Theo Epstein has always been enamored with Schwarber, so a couple months of below average baseball probably won’t be enough for Epstein to give him up.
No matter what trade is or isn’t made, it will be controversial. If no new starter is acquired, fans will likely be frustrated with the front office’s confidence in a struggling rotation. If Javier Baez is traded in favor of Ian Happ becoming the Cubs’ long-term second baseman, critics will second-guess the front office’s decision to bet on an unproven rookie over the 2016 NLCS co-MVP. On the other hand, if Happ is traded and Baez continues to swing and miss on bounce-pass sliders, some fans will express frustration in ditching Happ for an occasional flashy defensive play from Baez. If somehow Kyle Schwarber is traded, fans will complain about Theo Epstein walking back on his proclamations that Schwarber is untouchable. Nobody said this stuff was easy, and the Cubs are certainly under a microscope this season that they were largely spared in years past. Tough decisions are ahead, and the front office is likely to take a beating from some quarters no matter what they do.
Nonetheless, as we’ve seen in the past, all criticisms are forgiven if your club is playing deep into October.
