This offseason, the talk of Major League Baseball was the lack of big deals available for free agents, as the top dogs such as JD Martinez, Jake Arrieta, and Yu Darvish were left waiting to find suitors until the closing weeks of spring training. So when the St. Louis Cardinals signed a big-league wash-up nicknamed “The Lizard King” to a two-year, $15.5 million contract on December 5th, the casual fan didn’t give the move a ton of, if any attention. If anything, they questioned the move, wondering why a team such as the Cardinals would take a chance on an (American) foreign import with so many veteran free agent starters available in the marketplace. Yet a little over a third of the way into the season, the Cardinals are 32-25 and have a legitimate claim to making the best move of the offseason when they brought in Miles Mikolas to bolster their rotation.
Never heard of Mikolas before this season? Join the club. After being drafted by the Padres in the 7th round of the 2009 MLB Draft out Nova Southeastern University, Mikolas made his MLB debut with the Padres as a twenty-three-year-old relief pitcher in 2009, where he went 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 25 games. Unfortunately, that would be the peak of his early big league career, as from 2013-2014, he pitched in twelve total games for the Padres and the Rangers, ending with a 6.25 ERA, 1.407 WHIP, and -0.7 WAR before the Rangers handed him his walking papers on November 20, 2014.
With no suitors stateside, Mikolas headed over to Japan, agreeing to a one-year, $700,000 contract with the Yomiuri Giants of the Nippon Professional Baseball League. It must have been something in the water, as Mikolas immediately developed into an ace with the Giants, going 13-3 with a 1.92 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, and at the time setting career highs with 145.0 innings pitched, and 107 strikeouts. After a “down” 2016 with the Giants that saw his ERA rise to 2.45, Mikolas came roaring back in 2017 with 14 wins, a 2.25 ERA, and 0.984 WHIP, and professional bests of 188.0 innings pitched, 187 strikeouts, 9.0 K/9, and an elite 8.13 K:BB ratio. After three career-changing years in Japan, the Cardinals came calling, and Mikolas agreed to return to the MLB with redemption on his mind.
A groundball pitcher, Mikolas’ repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, a hard high-80s slider, and a sharp curveball with bite. If you watched Mikolas’ first two starts with the Cardinals, both against the Brewers, you likely weren’t too impressed with the results. On April 2nd, Mikolas made his first start in the majors since 2014, getting the win (and his first career hit, a home run) despite giving up four earned runs, and three home runs in 5.2 innings pitched. A week later against the Brewers, Mikolas managed to avoid the long ball, but still gave up another four earned runs, taking a no-decision in 6.2 innings pitched. Through two starts in his return, Mikolas was sitting on a 6.00 ERA, although there were flashes of success with zero walks in 12.0 innings pitched.
Since April 9th, Mikolas has lowered his ERA down to 2.49, and while his FIP is a higher 3.18, his peripherals suggest that his success is not a fluke. Over his last nine starts, Mikolas has only failed to go over six innings in one start and had a four-start stretch from April 14th-May 4th where he went seven innings each time out, giving up a total of four earned runs in 28 innings. At 6-1, the high point of Mikolas’ season came on May 21st, where Mikolas threw 109 pitches en route to a complete game, nine-strikeout (a season-high) shutout of the Royals. Even his one loss of the year, Mikolas gave the Cardinals every chance to win, allowing one earned run in six innings in a tough-luck loss.
Mikolas may never strike a ton of hitters out-he has yet to hit double-digit strikeouts this season, and his K/9 is only 6.6-yet he uses his elite control to remain successful, with a total of eight walks in 72.1 innings pitched this season, good for a league-best 1.0 BB/9, and a 6.63 K:BB ratio. In six starts, Mikolas managed to avoid walking any hitters, and in his other five appearances has only walked one batter three times, and two twice. By primarily keeping the ball on the ground, Mikolas has only allowed 0.7 HR/9, keeping the ball in the park to compensate for his lack of swing-and-miss stuff.
As of this writing, Mikolas has a legitimate shot to make his first All-Star team at 29 and after three years away, ranking in the top ten in the NL in ERA (8th) wins (5th) WHIP (4th) BB/9 (1st) SHO/CG (1st) K:BB (2nd) and ERA+ (8th). With Fangraphs estimating that one WAR will be worth about $11.1 million this season, Mikolas has already provided incredible value to the Cardinals, leading the stacked Cardinals rotation with 1.7 WAR (besting the likes of Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez) this season despite only being paid $7.5 million.
A year ago, the handful of fans that remembered Mikolas would have likely associated him with his Lizard King nickname, which he earned after a YouTube video of him eating a lizard in the bullpen after losing a bet during a 2011 Arizona Fall League game went viral. Now, thanks to some savvy scouting and a gamble by the Cardinals front office, Mikolas is an innings-eating stabilizer in the red birds’ rotation and could be the unlikely difference maker in what is sure to be an NL Central race that goes down to the wire.
