Should the Browns try to win over Josh Rosen?
Back in 1983 (a drama best chronicled by ESPN’s “Elway to Marino” 30 for 30 than my own memory), Stanford QB and super-prospect John Elway balked at playing for the Baltimore Colts organization and engineered a trade to Denver instead.
Twenty years later in 2004, Mississippi QB Eli Manning pulled a similar move. Manning had become the presumptive # 1 pick (by a plurality, if not clear majority.) However, he balked at the idea of playing for the San Diego Chargers. At the time, the Chargers were seen as a bad organization, with a record of 43-88 over the previous eight years that saw five separate coaches. He engineered a trade to the New York Giants instead.
Now, nearly twenty years later, we may have a similar incident on our hands. Possible # 1 pick Josh Rosen is already sending signals that he may balk at playing for the Cleveland Browns, an organization more dysfunctional than either the Colts or Chargers at the time. As fate may have it, the New York Giants may again be the landing spot for this disgruntled QB.
Let’s see how we got here, what may happen, and what may prevent this from happening.
How Josh Rosen Became a Possible # 1 pick
If you simply glance at the quarterback class through box scores, you’d be hard-pressed to understand why UCLA QB Josh Rosen is the frontrunner for the # 1 pick right now. As a junior, he has “good but not great” stats — 3765 passing yards, 26 TDs, 10 ints, 62.6% completion, 8.3 yards per attempt. In fact, in terms of both stats and wins/loss record, Rosen lags behind his direct predecessor at UCLA, Brett Hundley, a R5 pick.
However, to understand the appeal of Josh Rosen as a prospect, you have to go deeper than the numbers alone. Most simply: Josh Rosen is the preferred franchise QB in the class because he’s the most ready to be a franchise QB. USC’s Sam Darnold and Wyoming’s Josh Allen may have bigger frames and more raw athletic talent, but Rosen laps them in terms of his footwork, his mechanics, and his progressions. His understanding of the position and his polish is well beyond his years.
Rosen is also more developed and experienced than his peers in regards to the off-the-field demands of the position. Darnold and Josh Allen broke out as national names more recently, with both rising to prominence around 2016. They’re both naturally low-key personalities, still getting used to that aspect of the job requirement and media responsibilities. They adopted the spotlight. Rosen was born in it. Molded by it. He was the # 1 high school prospect in his class and obviously a hotly contested recruit. He won the starting job at UCLA as soon as he stepped foot on campus. He was considered the favorite for the # 1 pick in 2018 before he even threw a pass at UCLA. As a result, he became mythologized as “The Chosen One.”
Effectively, Rosen has been groomed for this for his entire life. We tend to think of the NFL and sports in general as a meritocracy where the best rise up out of nowhere, but that’s not always true. There’s an underbelly of QB prospects who receive a lot of extra training and attention — personal and private coaches, summer QB camps, etc. As a result, some of these kids (often from well-off families, naturally) have more advanced skill sets than their peers. Oftentimes, that catches up with them down the road. Prospects like Jimmy Clausen and Matt Barkley (like Rosen, both Southern California kids) jump out and shine early on, but “top out” while their more genetically talented peers keep improving and eventually pass them by.
Rosen’s unique in that way; he’s much more physically gifted than the Clausens and Barkleys of the world. At 6’4″ with a “plus” arm, he has all the tools that you’d want in the position. In fact, those physical talents are the reason that you’d tend to put Rosen higher than the other top QB in the class, Baker Mayfield. Mayfield may dominate in college (with stats far better than Rosen’s) but the physical limitations that may “ding” him in some scouts’ eyes. There’s no reason to doubt Rosen in the same way.
In fact, the biggest criticism of Rosen may be a strange one. He’s outspoken and provocative, even criticizing the NCAA system and the concept of “student” athletes. Many NFL coaches don’t want “outspoken.” They want mindless and mute automatons who will do exactly what they’re told. However, coaches who worry about players who are “too smart” show their own intellectual insecurity. Personally, I’ve come to appreciate how the great QBs (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, etc) win with their minds more than anything else, even if their headiness may lead to a sideline clash or two. Being able to digest a playbook and diagnose a defense is more critical than your arm strength or “tools.” You don’t have to throw a laser through two defenders if you’re throwing to the open man. In my mind, Rosen has the intellect and the football IQ (in addition to the necessary physical traits as well) to be a longtime and successful starter in the NFL. A good comp may be Atlanta QB Matt Ryan — perhaps that’s not a Hall of Fame level, but that’s valuable enough to be a # 1 pick.
How Josh Rosen May Muck Up the Process
While I just praised Josh Rosen for seven paragraphs, I wouldn’t claim that he’s the consensus # 1 prospect or even the no-brainer # 1 QB in the class. He’s not as big of a “slam dunk” as John Elway or Andrew Luck. There are plenty of skeptics, and plenty of scouts/writers/fans who prefer the other names mentioned more. I have no qualms with your disagreement on that front; it’s all guesswork at the end of the day.
However, if you believe that Rosen is, in fact, the # 1 pick in the class, he has some leverage to utilize here to force his way onto his preferred team.
The first among them is the fact that Josh Rosen is still a junior, which means that he has another year of eligibility left at UCLA. Rosen’s camp has already floated this as a possibility in several planted news stories, stoking the flames and rumors about him trying to avoid the Browns.
Speculatively, this feels like a major “bluff” on Rosen’s part. Every step of Rosen’s path so far has been in service of an NFL career. He went to UCLA to play for a former NFL coach in Jim Mora, and the team revamped their staff to bring in an offensive coordinator in Jedd Fisch who had NFL experience and utilized more of a “pro-style” system than most of his college peers. Essentially, Rosen wanted to prepare himself for the NFL transition. While the new UCLA coach Chip Kelly may be a former NFL coach himself, he’s still not considered a real “NFL” coach. Learning Kelly’s perceived “gimmicky” system doesn’t appear to suit Rosen. Nor would the prospect of enduring another season of punishment and possible injury.
However, there is another path to disruption that may come into play. Rosen may sit out the season if he wants to be especially stubborn about his demands. Everyone wants money, but Rosen doesn’t necessarily need money. His father is a spinal surgeon who presumably makes a comfortable living. If Rosen demands a trade and gets drafted by Cleveland anyway, he can sit out the entire season until the following draft, which is a threat and gambit utilized by John Elway back in 1983. Rosen could spend the year resting up (after several minor injuries and concussions in college) and training with pro-caliber coaches on the side. Would that damage his stock for 2019? Most likely. That type of “bitch move” would annoy a lot of teams and possibly cost him his top 5 pick status. But if Rosen ends up plummeting to a team like New England in the back end of R1, I don’t think he’ll be crying much about it.
Staying in college is unlikely. Sitting out for a year is unlikely. I’m not even sure that Rosen will make a firm and public demand to Cleveland to trade him. Instead, the most likely course of action may be “soft pressure.” Essentially, passive-aggressive steps to ensure that the Browns don’t select him. Rosen could simply decline to interview or work out with Cleveland, which is what Kansas SF Josh Jackson recently did to avoid the Boston Celtics (wisely or not). While NFL teams rely heavily on game tape, they often don’t make that final decision until they’ve gotten a look behind the curtain and brought the QB into their building. Without that aspect of the evaluation, it may be difficult for the Browns to settle on him as their franchise QB. If it’s a 50:50 debate between Rosen and Darnold, or Rosen and Mayfield, they may be inclined to take the one they know better, or at least be more amenable to swapping spots with the Giants and avoiding that headache.
How the Browns May Recruit Rosen
Again, it’s still too early to assert with confidence that Josh Rosen should be the # 1 pick, or that the Cleveland Browns believe he’s the top QB in this class. There have been some rumors that new GM John Dorsey isn’t a big fan of his at all. If that’s true, then this may all be a moot point.
But let’s stick with the hypothetical that Rosen is the clear # 1 prospect and the Browns’ preferred option at QB. How then do the Browns “recruit” Rosen to Cleveland?
To do that, Cleveland needs to instill some confidence in Rosen and Rosen’s camp that they are on the right track and a fine place for a QB to develop. Obviously, it’s a bad team right now. Teams picking at # 1 usually are. However, the concerns run deeper than the current roster. Ever since their new expansion status, the Browns have been a dysfunctional organization from top to bottom. Their owner Jimmy Haslam has struggled with his command of the sport and has cycled through GMs time and time again. The coaching staff continues to be a revolving door. Even if Hue Jackson returns for Season 3 (an achievement only in Cleveland), he’s struggled to keep any sense of stability on his own staff. Pep Hamilton came and went; Ray Horton came and went.
Worse yet (from a QB like Rosen’s perspective) is the instability and indecisiveness when it comes to the roster itself. The Browns selected USC QB Cody Kessler in R3, then proceeded to bury him. They selected Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer in R2, then proceeded to shit on him. There’s no clear plan in place here, and no reason for a QB to believe he can turn the franchise around on his own.
To change that perception, the Browns need to convince Josh Rosen that they will protect him, in more ways than one.
The first would be the literal protection from pass pressure. On paper, the Browns have a few great offensive linemen (Joe Thomas, Joel Bitonio, Kevin Zeitler), but it’s hard to say they have a great offensive line as a whole. Over the past two seasons under Jackson, the team has allowed 55.0 sacks per season, the most in the NFL. One area of potential improvement is the center position, which can be a QB’s best friend. The team miscalculated twice thereby letting Alex Mack escape and by drafting Cam Erving. Since then, J.C. Tretter has been a below-average replacement. Adding a better option at the pivot may bring this entire line together. In the draft, Billy Price (OSU) and Frank Ragnow (ARK) may be ready-made starters available on day two or three and would provide their young QB a young center to grow with. Doubling down on offensive line makes sense when you’re investing so much in a young quarterback; maintaining his health and his confidence in the pocket becomes a paramount concern. I’d focus on that initial comfort first, then add additional playmakers afterward (a la Philly with Carson Wentz).
Further, the offensive philosophy and scheme will have to improve as well. Hue Jackson has claimed that he’s open to the idea of handing the playcalling reins to a new offensive coordinator, an idea that the team should jump on.
In a dream world, the team could reunite with their former OC John DeFilippo, who’s since become the toast of the town as the Philadelphia Eagles’ QB coach. That won’t happen. DeFilippo is too hot of a name to consider Cleveland; he’s going to land more appealing OC jobs if not head coaching interviews. Perhaps the most likely situation will be him staying in Philadelphia with a promotion to offensive coordinator.
However, chasing after coordinators from that same style and system may be a smart idea. If DeFilippo gets promoted in Philadelphia, that will make current OC Frank Reich a free agent and an appealing hire for Cleveland. With that similar logic in mind, I’d also consider first-year Buffalo QB coach David Culley, who had spent the prior 4 years as Andy Reid‘s assistant head coach in Kansas City. That Andy Reid/Doug Pederson system has proved to be an excellent one for developing (and protecting) QBs. Both Reich and Culley have worked with playcalling head coaches before, so hiring one of them would keep Jackson’s options open regarding those duties.
The other area that the Browns need to convince Josh Rosen that they will protect him would be in the media, and therein may be the biggest challenge of all. If the team is actually going to keep Hue Jackson, which I would not recommend, then he’s going to have to learn to bite his tongue and take some responsibility for himself. He’s thrown so many people under the bus that he may as well start commuting to work on Grave Digger. Given the last few years, I wouldn’t blame Josh Rosen or any other QB for being reluctant to hand their career over to him.
The Bottom Line
Right now, I happen to think Josh Rosen should be the # 1 pick in the draft for the reasons mentioned above. But at the end of the day, the Cleveland Browns don’t need to jump through hoops simply to appease a draft prospect. The goal isn’t to present a good case and argument as to why a QB can succeed in Cleveland; the goal is to create an environment where a QB can actually succeed in Cleveland. They need to fortify a united front and establish a stable organization in order to lure in a prospect like Josh Rosen, but more importantly, to improve their own fate as well.
