Could we have overrated DeAndre Hopkins?
So far in 2016, top 10 fantasy pick DeAndre Hopkins is off to a little bit of a slow start (227 yards, 2 TDs in his 4 games).
Presumably, Hopkins will pick up that pace from here and finish with a good year. The question is: what does that “good year” entail? For Hopkins, I fear that it may mean only a top 10/15 finish among WRs and not the top 5 that we had all been counting on.
Looking back at the numbers among the elite WRs stats from last year, there’s hardly any difference at all:
Antonio Brown: 193 targets, 136 catches, 1834 yards, 10 TDs
Julio Jones: 203 targets, 136 catches, 1871 yards, 8 TDs
Odell Beckham: 158 targets, 96 catches, 1450 yards, 13 TDs
DeAndre Hopkins: 192 targets, 111 catches, 1521 yards, 11 TDs
So what’s the red flag here? To notice it, you have to dig a little deeper.
All four of those superstars averaged a similar amount of yards per reception — in fact, all four fell in a narrow range between 13.2 (Antonio Brown) to 13.8 (Beckham).
However, there was a stark difference in average yards after catch between them. Let’s take a look:
Antonio Brown: 4.3
Julio Jones: 5.0
Odell Beckham: 4.5
DeAndre Hopkins: 1.6
To me, that disparity is not a fluke and has been nearly mirrored this season (as DeAndre Hopkins lags at 1.4 again).
To understand why, let’s keep in mind Hopkins’ talents as a receiver. He has many virtues: exceptional route running, body control, and hands. However, he’s never been a burner like Julio Jones or Odell Beckham. He needs to win at the point of attack, and often times in contested situations. In a sense, Hopkins is a great possession receiver.
Now, why is that important for fantasy purposes? Because it means that Hopkins needs quite a bit of VOLUME in order to rack up huge stats. He’s not going to catch a bubble screen and take it 80 yards to the house. He needs to consistently get peppered with 10, 12, 15 targets a game.
Last season, he did exactly that. But this year, the Texans have some more weapons around him, as they try to get the ball to Lamar Miller and Will Fuller more. Most likely, Hopkins won’t be Option 1 Option 2 and Option 3 in the offense anymore.
Given his lack of yards after the catch (blame the offense rather than him if you want), that means that he’s unlikely to match last year’s totals.
I’ve never seen much attention placed on yards after catch before in terms of fantasy — after all, why do owners care where the yards come from? Still, if Hopkins does end the year on a disappointing note, it may be a stat that we should all keep in mind for next year’s draft.
