Kyle Kuzma looks good, but let’s be realistic.
There’s no denying that the Lakers appear to have a nice value pick in Utah PF Kyle Kuzma. He should be a solid NBA player, which is a great return at pick # 27.
However, I’m starting to get the sense that the hype has spun way out of control on this kid. The tipping point for me was this recent tweet by Richard Sherman: “Looks to me that Kyle Kuzma is what they were hoping Brandon Ingram was…”
Let’s take a look at some reasons that are NOT true.
Kuzma is old for his draft class
Brandon Ingram recently turned 20 years old, which is typical of most sophomores in this one-and-done period in the NBA. These kids enter the league extremely underdeveloped and improve over time.
Kyle Kuzma’s the exception. Kuzma enrolled at Utah way back in 2013. He redshirted his first season there, which is rare for a high-profile basketball recruit at any program. His first season of play came the following year when he averaged 3.3 points in 8.1 minutes per game. By his redshirt sophomore year, he was up to 10.8 points. Finally, and only as a redshirt junior, did Kuzma finally break out: to the tune of 16.2 points and 9.3 rebounds a game.
You can take that two different ways. Clearly, Kuzma is improving and improving over time. But on the other hand, he’s also beating up on kids who are younger than him. Even in Summer League, he’s excelling against rookies who are 2-3 years less developed than he is.
For the Lakers’ short-term perspective, it doesn’t matter. They have Kyle Kuzma locked in on a cheap rookie deal at an age where he’s closer to his prime than other raw rookies. That only makes his rookie contract all the more valuable. However, it also suggests that Kuzma’s upside is not nearly as high as someone like Ingram, who has much more improvement to come.
He’s not a rim protector
At 6’9″, Kyle Kuzma is being slated for a stretch power forward role in the NBA. He has the lateral quickness to hang on the perimeter, but I’m not convinced he can be a factor closer to the rim.
In college, playing 30+ minutes a game as a junior, Kuzma averaged only 0.5 blocks per game to go along with only 0.6 steals. It reminds you some of other power forwards like Blake Griffin or Kevin Love, whose limitations at the rim often require them to be paired with shot blocking centers (although the Cavs may be trying Love at C this year).
In my mind, Kuzma is more of a PF-SF tweener than PF-C. That’s fine, of course. But if he’s a hybrid forward, then that means his shooting will be integral to his success, and that leads us to our next concern.
His shooting is still a question mark
Kyle Kuzma won the Summer League MVP based on some exceptional scoring and exceptional shooting. He hit 24 of 50 threes during his stellar run.
But the concern is: that’s not part of his game that’s ever been a standout before. In college, he averaged 30.2% from beyond the (short) arc, peaking at 32.1% as a junior. Sure enough, he’s back around that same mark this recent preseason, 30.6% in 6 games.
So which is the real Kuzma? Is he a below-average three point shooter? Or is he genuinely improving to the point where he can be a “plus” there? The latter would go a long way to determining his upside in the NBA.
Conclusion
Again, I like Kyle Kuzma as a player. I can see him being a starter or at the least a good rotational player who can offer scoring off the bench. But the idea that Kuzma is going to be a star feels foolhardy to me. Given his age, it’s very unlikely that he possesses the upside of someone like Brandon Ingram. So let’s just enjoy Kuzma for what he is, rather than balloon expectations past the point where he can fulfill them.
