The Orioles have been on the cusp of playoff greatness for the last few years. With finishes ranking 2nd, 3rd, and 1st respectively, the Orioles have been a force to be reckoned with since 2012. With the Red Sox being able to contend and bring up young, talented players as well, it will be difficult in 2017 for the Orioles to avoid the Wild Card gauntlet. However, there should be a few exciting story lines throughout the year.
1st storyline: Can the Orioles strike out less, improving their chances to score runs against elite pitching?
Manny Machado will be key for the Orioles this season.
Over the last few years, the Orioles have struck out, a lot. Last year, the team struck out 1324 times. That’s roughly 8 strikeouts a game. With this prodigious propensity to whiff, the Orioles would struggle occasionally to score runs, especially if those strikeouts came in key situations. Having sluggers such as Trumbo and Davis in the lineup won’t help matters, as they both struck out 170 and 219 times, respectively. However, this alone will not be able to keep down this lineup. Manny Machado will be able to keep the lineup strong, as well Adam Jones and JJ Hardy. This lineup will be something to reckoned with even with the strikeouts. If the rest of the lineup can figure out how to reduce their strikeouts, there’s no telling how well the Orioles will do.
2nd storyline: Will the rotation take a step forward to improve their playoff spots?
With Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, and Dylan Bundy, the Orioles rotation would have been poised to be a solid rotation and one of the better 1 through 3 in baseball. That being said, there are still question marks throughout. The back end, Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez leave a lot of question marks as to durability and consistent results. Tillman will not be ready for Opening Day, already putting a strain on the Orioles to prove they have some depth. The other options, Logan Verrett, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, and Gabriel Ynoa, were less than impressive last year. Since Tillman will not be able to continue his good success from last year initially, it will be up to Gausman and Bundy to build off their solid 2016’s and provide stability at the top of the rotation. Bundy not going deep into games was by design in 2016, but will the Orioles be able to keep up the same plan in 2017?
3rd storyline: Can Davis and Trumbo provide enough offense to offset their defensive woes?
Chris Davis really came onto the scene in 2008 with Texas, showing flashes of what raw power he had. Hitting .285 with 17 HR in 80 games, he showed right away that he would be a force not to be trifled with. He’s struggled to keep the average up, with consequent full season averages between ranging between .196 and .286. However, he’s been able to stay healthy since 2012 and has provided plenty of pop with his bat, as well as some decent averages. The two outliers being 2014 and 2016, with averages of .196 and .221 respectively. His oWAR, offensive WAR, since 2012 has averaged around 6, while his dWAR, defensive WAR, has been -.8. This means that Davis is essentially a slightly league average fielder. This combination has led to him, when he’s not producing with the long ball and driving in runs, he’s between a 1.6 and 3.0 player. It will take a solid year from him to keep him above the 2+ range, the level that Baseball Reference uses as starter caliber.
Mark Trumbo has a huge power surge last year, leading the all of baseball in HR. He’s always been a defensive liability; however, never having a year close to a value of 1.0, and only one year actually positive. His oWAR does not make up for his defensive miscues, with the highest being last year at 2.8. Trumbo has always struggled to really find a position on the field, but with his tremendous raw power, teams continue to try moving him around to find him a spot. This year with the Orioles, it will be up to Trumbo and Davis to provide consistent pop, with Wieters leaving for free agency. Offense is the name of the game for these two sluggers. If they can manage to at least be a sub level or better defensively, they will provide plenty of value to the Orioles, and will help lead this team to the playoffs once more.
