TIER 1: SUREFIRE PLAYOFF TEAMS
(5) Milwaukee Bucks
In Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have perhaps the NBA’s brightest young star.
Actual record last year: 42-40 (-0.2 point differential)
Record should have been
The Milwaukee Bucks are trading injuries from Khris Middleton (who missed 50 games last year) to Jabari Parker (who may miss months this year.) Of the two, Jabari Parker may have the brighter future, but Middleton’s the better player right now.
Given that, the Bucks would have been better off with Middleton all year long — adding maybe a few extra wins to that 42-40 total.
Impact adds
No notable names
Impact losses
No notable names
Predicted win-loss total
Aside from those mentioned injuries, the Bucks are bringing back the band again this year. For a talented team like this, that appears to be a prudent move. So now, the only question becomes… how much can their young talent improve? And how quickly?
“The Greek Freak” Giannis Antetokounmpo may be r/nba’s favorite player — but perhaps we’re getting too giddy about him. I’ve read numerous comments from folks, predicting that Giannis will win an MVP as soon as next year, and OBVIOUSLY will in the near future.
Personally, I’m a little more cautious about making major projections like that. I don’t believe Antetounmpo will become a legitimate top 3 player in the league until he has a league-average shot, and right now he’s a long way away from that. He shot 27.2% last year, in his 4th season in the NBA. To predict that he’s going to jump up as high as 33/35% in his 5th year is a leap of faith. In fact, I don’t think it’s a given that he’ll ever be a great shooter. People point to Kawhi Leonard as an example of someone who learned to shoot, but Leonard was already connecting at 37%+ from beyond the arc at Giannis’ same age.
Anyway, didn’t mean to be a Debbie Downer here, but simply a pragmatist. The Milwaukee Bucks will keep improving and moving toward title contender status, but it’ll come in steps — not single bounds. record: 45-37.
(4) Washington Wizards
Actual record last year: 49-33 (+1.8 point differential)
Record should have been
The Wizards jumped from 41-41 to 49-33 this year, which you may expect from a talented young team like this. However, there are some signs that good fortune aided that improvement as well. For one, it’s no given that Bradley Beal will stay healthy (he played 77 games last year) or that Otto Porter will continue to be scorching hot from beyond the arc (43.4% from three). All in all, this team may have been closer to 45-46 wins than 50, once you account for regression.
Impact adds
PG Tim Frazier, SG Jodie Meeks
Impact losses
SF Bojan Bogdanovic
Predicted win-loss total
The Wizards did lose a solid shooter in Bojan Bogdanovic, but overall they tried to address their depth — by far the biggest weakness on their team last year. Adding Tim Frazier should help, as should a healthier version of Ian Mahinmi.
That said, this is still a team that’s heavily reliant on their superstar backcourt, and need them to continue to play well and stay healthy in order to keep that top 4 seed on lock. Overall, I expect this team to be better, even if their record won’t reflect that. record: 49-33.
(3) Toronto Raptors
Actual record last year: 51-31 (+4.2 point differential)
Record should have been
The Raptors had the best point differential in the East last season, even though their star PG Kyle Lowry missed 20 games. If you account for that, and all the talent that they added at mid-season, and you have a potentially stacked unit. If the team could have retained everyone from last year, they could have been a 55+ win team and a serious challenger for the #1 seed.
Impact adds
SF C.J. Miles
Impact losses
SF DeMarre Carroll, PF Patrick Patterson, SF P.J. Tucker, PG Cory Joseph
Predicted win-loss total
Judging by that tally alone, Toronto lost more talent than any team in the East, with four rotational players walking out the door.
That said, I don’t expect much of a dropoff. Masai Ujiri’s collected a lot of talent on the backend of his bench that should be ready for an elevated role. Most NBA fans know about Norman Powell by now, but I have even higher hopes for their backup PG Delon Wright, a tall 6’5″ guard with scoring ability. I also like the addition of C.J. Miles, a rotational wing who excels as a shooter (40% from three).
All in all, I expect the Raptors to have a roaring regular season and actually improve slightly on their total from last year. record: 53-29 But keep in mind, these projections are for the regular season only. The Raptors style of play hasn’t lent itself to huge playoff success so far, so I can see them being vulnerable there to lower seeds.
(2) Boston Celtics
Actual record last year: 53-23 (+2.7 point differential)
Record should have been
Not to take anything away from Brad Stevens, Isaiah Thomas, and a largely magical year, but I don’t believe the Boston Celtics were a true #1 seed. They did rattle off 53 wins, but in terms of point differential, they were only the 8th best team in the NBA. In a vacuum, 50 wins would have probably been the most expected result with their old roster. Given that, I’m not surprised Danny Ainge made some shakeups to take this team to another level.
Impact adds
SF Gordon Hayward, PF Marcus Morris, SF Jayson Tatum
Impact losses
SG Avery Bradley, PF Amir Johnson, C Kelly Olynyk
Predicted win-loss total
A few roster changes have helped Boston, particularly in terms of up-sizing their small roster. I tried to do the math, and calculated that the Celtics may have improved their average height (weighed per minute) by over an inch on last year’s roster.
Now, “bigger” doesn’t always mean “better,” but it’s safe to say that Gordon Hayward’s an improvement on Avery Bradley. Exactly how much…? ESPN advanced stats’ “wins added” suggests it’s a 7 win improvement. However, their department doesn’t value Bradley very highly (they even charted his defense as a “negative”) so that may be optimistic from my end. I would estimate extra 4-5 wins from the move myself.
Add in a few more thanks to the contributions from their young forwards, and we get back to the 7 win improvement. But remember, that’s +7 wins from a team that I would have estimated as a 50-win squad beforehand, so the improvement doesn’t look as striking in total. record: 57-25.
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual record last year: 51-31 (+3.2 point differential)
Record should have been
You can make the argument that last year’s Cleveland Cavaliers team (regular season edition) was among the most underachieving in the entire league. LeBron James + 2 All-Stars and a #1 payroll = only 51 wins? That’s insane.
You can blame Kevin Love missing 20 games for part of that, but their 23-23 malaise to end the year was simply inexcusable from an effort perspective. I would presume that the Cavs would respect Boston more this year, and find more motivation to snatch that #1 seed. If they ran back the exact same unit with a healthier Love, I’d have expected at least 55 wins.
Impact adds
SF Jeff Green, PG Jose Calderon
Impact losses
No notable names
Predicted win-loss total
Like Milwaukee, the Cavs are rolling back the exact same unit, although it’s not entirely by choice (we can only wonder what would have been with Paul George…)
Still, I can’t imagine LeBron James and company sleepwalking through the regular season again. The team got flak for that in the media, and got blasted for their poor defensive numbers. I believe the Cavs know that they need to focus more on that end of the floor, and will make a concerted effort to develop better habits earlier in the year. More effort, more defense, even on attitude alone, can “up” their win total. record: 58-24.
Of course, it’d be fascinating to see what happens to this team if their effort doesn’t improve. A stumbling and a team floating around #2-#3 seed status will only egg on those LeBron to L.A. rumors and potentially wreak havoc on their latest title hunt.
Full Series – Eastern Conference: Tier 3, Tier 2, Tier 1
