TIER 3: NON CONTENDERS
(15) Chicago Bulls
While they add the exciting Zach LaVine, it looks like it’s going to be a long season for the Bulls.
Actual record last year: 41-41 (+0.4 point differential)
Record should have been
The Bulls established some chemistry and rhythm late in the year, but it’s hard to argue that this team was much better than .500 overall.
Impact adds
SG Zach LaVine, PG Kris Dunn, PF Lauri Markkanen (R)
Impact losses
SF Jimmy Butler, PG Rajon Rondo
Predicted win-loss total
You can grumble that the Bulls management didn’t get enough of a return for Jimmy Butler, but you can’t really fault them for the decision to blow it up. Faced with the prospects of another .500 season and a first-round exit, they’ve decided to fully embrace the rebuild.
Of course, that’s going to lead to a bumpy season in terms of wins and losses. Their most established young buck is Zach LaVine, but he’s coming off injury. Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen may have bright futures, but they’re still going to be net “negatives” at this stage in their career.
A team with that many young players getting that many minutes is naturally going to lead to losses. The Bulls won’t have any motivation to fight that tide, either, as a top 5 pick would do wonders for their rebuild going forward. record: 24-58.
(14) Brooklyn Nets
Actual record last year: 20-62 (-6.7 point differential)
Record should have been
Jeremy Lin missed 40 games last year; when he came back, the Nets played decently well. If Lin had played the entire year, I can see an argument that the team would have been closer to 30 wins than 20.
Impact adds
PG D’Angelo Russell, SF DeMarre Carroll, C Jarrett Allen
Impact losses
C Brook Lopez
Predicted win-loss total
I’m a huge fan of GM Sean Marks and coach Kenny Atkinson, but Nets fans should still understand that this team is years away from being truly competitive. There are still too many young kids on this roster getting major minutes for the team to compete for a .500 record.
The loss of Brook Lopez could still be a case of “one step backward to move two steps forward” in the future. Hate Lopez all you want, but he’s a competent and proven scorer. Timo Movzgov’s going to be a poor man’s version in the meantime before the team ultimately turns the reins over to rookie Jarrett Allen. I’m high on Allen’s long-term future (I had him as my #10 prospect overall) but he’s a raw rookie that will be among the worst centers logging heavy minutes next year.
On the bright side (in terms of “wins” total), the Nets have no motivation to rack up losses at the end of the year, since they’re going to lose their pick again. Even if the team stumbles for most of the year, they should be able to rack up a few wins late in the year when all the other bad teams pack it up for tank mode. record: 28-54.
(13) Atlanta Hawks
Actual record last year: 43-39 (-0.9 point differential)
Record should have been
The point differential suggests that this team was about as mediocre as it gets and probably should have only won 40 or 41 games. Perhaps some improvement from Taurean Prince may have added to that, but we’re still looking at a unit that would have been about 42-40.
Impact adds
PF John Collins (R), C Miles Plumlee
Impact losses
PF Paul Millsap, SG Tim Hardaway Jr., C Dwight Howard
Predicted win-loss total
On paper, the Atlanta Hawks have already tanked. They may be among the least talented teams in the entire NBA right now, and worse than a few of the others mentioned beforehand.
However, my one hesitation to move them down too far is coach Mike Budenholzer. He’s established a system that’s worked and sustained success (theirs being the second-longest playoff streak in the league). It very well may be in this team’s “muscle memory” to be competitive.
Given all that, I have no idea where to place Atlanta. If Coach Bud embraces the tank, I can see them winning 20 games and being the worst team in the league. But I can also see him pulling some magic and milking 35 from a bunch of nobodies. This prediction’s my equivalent of a confused “shrug” — record: 29-53
(12) Indiana Pacers
Actual record last year: 42-40 (+0.4 point differential)
Record should have been
If the Indiana Pacers made a few improvements to their rotation (less Monta Ellis, more C.J. Miles) and their coaching (sorry, Nate) then I can see a scenario where the same team fought for 45 wins. Of course, Paul George wasn’t satisfied with that endeavor and sent the team into a deep rebuild instead.
Impact adds
SG Victor Oladipo, PG Darren Collison, SF Bojan Bogdanovic
Impact losses
SF Paul George, PG Jeff Teague, SF C.J. Miles
Predicted win-loss total
Like most people, I don’t fully grasp what’s going on in Indiana. If you’re going to blow it up, you may as well go all the way. Lose, lose, lose, and snatch that top 5 pick at the end of the rainbow.
Instead, Kevin Pritchard and company have collected a few competent veterans like Victor Oladipo and Darren Collison that aren’t good enough to compete, but aren’t bad enough to e a bottom 5 team in the league. Remember, this is a team that also has Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner in their front court as well.
I can see a scenario where the Indiana Pacers try to fight for a playoff spot, only to eventually realize the futility and start tanking late in the year. Ultimately, it may be too late by then. record: 30-52
(11) Orlando Magic
Actual record last year: 29-53 (-6.6 point differential)
Record should have been
Based on talent, the Orlando Magic should have been better than their record, but they weren’t. In fact, based on their point differential they may have been even worse.
Impact adds
SF Jonathan Isaac (R)
Impact losses
SF Jeff Green
Predicted win-loss total
The Orlando Magic have been rebuilding ever since they traded Dwight Howard, and stumbling around in their attempts to do so.
In fact, this current core may have “aged out” of proper tank mode. Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon will both be entering their 4th season in the league. Evan Fournier is only 24, but this will be his 6th year in the NBA. These young kids should be improving to the point where a top 5 pick is no longer in play.
I can also see the Magic more motivated to “win” than other rebuilding teams, given the status of their coach Frank Vogel. Vogel’s fallen from grace quickly in just one year on the job, and will now report to a new GM that had no part of hiring him. If he can’t earn improvement from this team, then his head may be on the chopping block. record: 33-49
Full Series – Eastern Conference: Tier 3, Tier 2, Tier 1
