Shooting has become the most polarizing attribute an NBA player can have. No other skill can so easily influence the value and perception of a player. The best jump shooting teams have become the best offensive teams, and the teams with not enough shooters have been unable to score proficiently. This year’s crop of prospects holds many great shooters, both specialists and players you can build your offense around. This list details the best shooters, in my opinion, in the draft.
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There are countless shooters in this draft who can stand in a corner and hit a three-pointer, but what makes Kennard stand out, is the versatility of his jump shot. Kennard is hitting an absurd 55.6% of his 2 point jumpers while being assisted on just 20% of them. He is also being assisted on only 77.3% of his 3 point attempts while hitting at a sparkling 44% clip. As I’ll allude to later in this article, the biggest indicator of future shooting potential is free throw percentage in my opinion. This doesn’t mean that a poor FT% is a death sentence for shooters, it just can weed out some guys shooting above their talent level and can show some people that are in a slump. That being said, Kennard is shooting 87.5% on a healthy number of attempts from the free throw line.
- Lauri Markkanen is one of the best shooters at the NCAA level.
Markkanen’s offensive profile compares favorably to Knicks’ star Kristaps Porzingis in that, Markkanen can stretch the floor on spot-up attempts, as well as create his own attempts within the 3-point line. Markkanen also is able to run off screens and hit shots without being fully set, this sets him apart from most stretch bigs. The 7 foot Markkanen shoots 50% from 3 while shooting 3s on 45.3% of his shot attempts. Markkanen also hits a healthy 40.3% of his two point jumpers while just being assisted on a guard like 20% of those attempts. Markkanen makes 83.5% of his 4.3 free throw attempts per game, which bodes well for carrying this over to the next level.
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Malik Monk is a scary athlete, but he gets most of his shots at the rim during transition. That means most of his halfcourt offense comes from him getting his own 2 point jumpers or spotting up from 3. Monk hits 41.4% of his 3s while taking an outlandish number (7.4) per game. Monk only uses assists on 17.9% of his 2-point jump shots and makes a great 47% of them. While he may be only the number 3 shooter in the draft, Malik Monk is the most dangerous all-around scorer of the bunch.
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Terrance Ferguson is starting on a professional basketball team in Australia after just turning 19. Though he is playing just 16.8 minutes per game, he is already a contributor in the NBL. He is shooting just 33.3% on 2.35 3 point attempts per game, but his reputation as a shooter exceeds his production so far. He has a little more wiggle room than college shooters as he has pro-level defenders tracking him.
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Tyler Lydon projects to be a tweener at the next level, but this isn’t the death sentence it was 10 years ago, in the NBA due to the upswing in pace and space oversize. Lydon’s ability to create his own mid-range jump shot (43.3% of two point jumpers assisted) bodes well for him to play the wing in the NBA. He also shoots 43.8% from 3 and 81.7% from the free throw line; showing that he can be an elite shooting 4 at the next level.
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Josh Hart is the golden boy of college basketball this season, and maybe I’m overrating him because of this. Hart is a solid shooter from 3-point range (38.4%) and the free throw line (79.3%), but what makes him such a good shooter and scorer, is his ability to create a mid-range jump shot. He only uses an assist on 7.7% of his 2 point jumpers while making 40.6% of them.
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Markelle Fultz has been the frontrunner for the number 1 pick since the beginning of the college basketball season. The thing about Fultz that has NBA front office executives salivating is his ability to put the ball in the basket. Arguably the most threatening thing a player can do in the NBA is pull up for three as a pick and roll ball handler. This makes it so the defense has to go over the screen, switch on the screen, or double team the ball handler. All of these outcomes create either a mismatch or a 5 on 4 scenario, which an NBA offense should be able to exploit. Fultz shoots the 3 off the dribble better than any point guard in the NBA draft. Fultz hits 41.7% of his 3s while using an assist on just 48.6% of them. This combined with a 45.3% on 2-point jumpers with 13.2% of those makes coming off of a pass, show that Fultz is the consummate pick and roll scorer in this draft. The only thing keeping Fultz so low is his 68.2% on 132 free throw attempts.
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Lonzo Ball’s jump shot is a peculiar thing; on one hand, he has deep range, he looks elite shooting off the catch and coming off of screens, but on the other, he is limited shooting off the dribble and doesn’t hit his free throws at an elite rate. Some people would put Ball at the top of this list, but I don’t think he’ll be able to use his jump shot out of the pick and roll at the next level. Ball has hit 43.6% of his threes on a good number of attempts, but 76.5% of those are assisted, which is high for a point guard with his shooting ability. He hardly ever shoots mid-range jump shots and he only hits 18.2% of his limited attempts. Also, Lonzo Ball has hit just 67.2% of his free throws which is slightly worrying for his future shooting potential. Ball may be an elite shooter if a team is willing to play him off the ball and send him through screens, but this would squander his best attribute: his passing ability.
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Jonathan Isaac has played a supporting role for FSU this year, which is holding back his placement on this list. Isaac is a huge wing at 6’10 which allows his to get his mid-range jump shot, which he hits at an efficient 48.3%, off against most defenders. He mostly creates his own looks inside the arc (28.6% of 2-point jumpers are assisted), but he relies on his teammates for 80% of his 3-point makes. He hits 38.5% on 3s and his 82.4% free throw percentage shows that this is likely sustainable.
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Perhaps he is known more for his athleticism and all-around play, but make no mistakes; Bridges is an elite standstill shooter. He is shooting 40% on 3 pointers but was assisted on every one. He also shoots 90.6% on free throws. Bridges isn’t often asked to create his own shot, but when he does venture into the midrange, it is without an assist and he hits 40%. The only thing holding Bridges back from being higher on this list is his lack of attempts. Bridges is 4th on his team in field goal attempts, but if he can hold up this efficiency on more attempts he would end up as high as 4th on this list.
Honorable Mention: Dwayne Bacon, TJ Leaf, Juwan Staten, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
(All college stats are courtesy of sports-reference.com and hoop-math.com, all NBL stats are courtesy of basketball.realgm.com)
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