Recently we profiled the biggest free agents with some detail, devoting a full post to each of them and their best potential fits.
However, I wanted to give a shoutout to some players that I believe will be underpaid free agents. These are all players who played less than 26 minutes per game last season but could go on to be solid rotational players for a club next year.
(5) G/F Justin Holiday, N.Y. Knicks
Justin Holiday has the potential to turn into a solid NBA player.
Despite a bumpy season in New York, the Knicks only afford 20 minutes a night to Justin Holiday, Jrue’s older brother. He’s already 28 years old, so it’s not like he’s a raw untapped diamond, but I still feel like there’s potential there for a quality 3-and-D player to emerge. Justin shot a respectable 35.5% from beyond the arc last year. His defense is even more intriguing, as the 6’6″ SF has a 7’0″ wingspan, making him more than capable of holding up at either wing position. If you’re looking for a 5th starter or simply a capable reserve, he’s worth a flier in my mind.
(4) PF Patrick Patterson, Toronto
Savvy NBA fans have been talking up Patrick Patterson for so long that the secret may have been out. In fact, Patterson didn’t live up to expectations this year, helping to motivate the Raps to trade for PF Serge Ibaka.
Patterson picked the wrong year to have a bad season, but I’m still supportive of his potential. He didn’t shoot well this past season overall but still notched 36.8% from three. He may be a little undersized for the PF spot and won’t protect the rim well, but his fluidity and basketball IQ make him a savvy defender. ESPN’s real plus/minus charted his impact as a +1.05 on offense and a +1.26 on defense. He may not be as good as Serge Ibaka or Paul Millsap, but he’ll come at a fraction of the price. In fact, that “down” year may be a good thing if it allows teams to sign him for a modest price. He’s still only 28 years old, so I can see him being a serviceable starter for the next 2-3 years.
(3) SF Thabo Sefolosha, Atlanta
Once known as a great stopper (a la an Anthony Roberson), Thabo Sefolosha’s faded from the national spotlight. The perception is that injuries and age has crippled him and rendered him useless at age 33. The reality is quite different from that. The numbers suggest that Sefolosha is still an elite defender, utilizing his 6’7″ frame to hold opponents down on the wing. That same ESPN plus/minus charts him as a +2.27 on defense. As long as he’s hitting his open threes at a good enough rate (34.5% career from beyond the arc), he’s still an effective rotation player and would serve a contender well.
(2) SF Omri Casspi, Minnesota
The Israeli Assassin’s even further down the radar, falling off teams and out of the league for stretches last season. Personally, I’m not sure why. At 6’9″, Casspi has the ability to play either SF or PF, where he can serve as an effective stretch 4. He hit 36.7% from three last year, showing his potential to fill a valuable bench role for any club. He’s an effective offensive player and an underrated defensive one. In a league hungry for “hybrids” (just ask Rob Hennigan), Casspi’s strangely undervalued.
(1) SF C.J. Miles, Indiana
C.J. Miles logged consistent minutes for Indiana in their playoff chase last year, but I suspect it should have been even healthier of a supply. He’s a really strong shooter from beyond the arc, hitting 41.3% from three (on 5.4 attempts per game).
Miles gets some flak for his defensive abilities (DPM listed him as a -0.90 impact per 100 possessions), but I don’t find him to be as much of a liability there as that suggests. The entire Pacers team had questionable coaching and schemes — even Paul George got labeled as a -0.09. The fact that a great shooter like Miles only played 23.4 minutes to Monta Ellis‘ 27.0 makes me doubt Nate McMillan even more. A smarter team will use Miles as a 5th starter or a key reserve and will be better for it. At 6’6″, he has the length to start for teams at either SG or SF.
honorable mentions
PG Beno Udrih: Udrih may be 34 years old, but he’s consistently been a solid contributor capable of playing a full-time backup role. Not bad for the league minimum.
SG Jodie Meeks and Anthony Morrow: These undersized SGs are severely limited, but they’re both excellent shooters in an age that values the 3 ball.
SF Hollis Thompson: Another prospective 3-and-D wing with good length, Thompson hasn’t been able to latch onto a job since losing his in Philly.
