Welcome back to “Was it Worth It?” where every few days we will be exploring (okay, *I* will be exploring, and you mainly reading about it) all of the noteworthy QB dilemmas teams around the league faced this offseason and how they handled them, with my analysis of whether or not they have made the right decision. This week: The New York Jets. This is gonna be a long one.
Full disclosure: I feel a great deal of gratitude to both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith, though not for the same reason. Let me get this out of the way, then we’ll do the whole…analysis thing.
Ryan Fitzpatrick served his purpose for the Texans.
Ryan Fitzpatrick led the formerly 2-14 Texans of 2013 to a 9-7 season the next year, despite the fact that our consolation prize of Jadeveon Clowney didn’t really get to play in 2014. We had an entirely new coaching staff, a lot of dead money, and no one I knew was feeling too optimistic about Fitzpatrick. He fucking delivered. I won’t pretend that he was at Pro Bowl level, but he wasn’t that far off. He was in the top 25% of all QBs in the last 5 years. He also gave us a great pre-game speech before the Bills game. He held the team together, gave us confidence that we could win again, and we haven’t had a losing season since. So Fitzy was the leader we needed, and I was sorry to see him go.
My feelings of gratitude toward Geno Smith, on the other hand, are more based on him being responsible for my highest upvoted comment on Reddit. It was a joke. It was at his expense.
In my last article, I asked Jets fans for requests via Reddit. Despite a ton of back and forth between them, only two such requests went unopposed. The first, from user Rugger11, was to wait. The opinion was so divided on whether this young prospect has any chance that there was a strong preference not to even see it addressed. The second request, from user omfgab, was simpler: Be gentle. It was the highest-upvoted comment in the thread.
So, where should we begin? How about with Rex Ryan. Rex coached the Jets from 2009 to 2014, and while 2010 was a great year in terms of both winning in the divisional round and giving us an actually watchable moment on Hard Knocks, most of his tenure there has not been great. While he may have led some great defensive units, his offenses have been bad. At no point during his Jets tenure did he have a top 16 offense in yards per play. He did, however, manage a bottom 6 spot every year from 2011-2014. In 2012, Mark Sanchez had the worst season of any QB over the last 5 years (counting, as always, only those who play at least 8 games). Sanchez’s 3.61 adjusted net yards per play was too bad to come back from. He averaged approximately 2 turnovers per touchdown and was responsible for one of the funniest plays in NFL history.
Unsurprisingly, a new QB was drafted in 2013. Unfortunately, the 2013 draft class sucked for QB, as all the talent at that position seemingly got drafted the year prior. This left the Jets in a difficult situation, even though it really shouldn’t have been that difficult. Mark Sanchez was entering only the second year of a pretty significant contract, the Jets lacked a reliable target for him to throw to, and again, and there were no QBs worth attempting to rebuild with. Also, the Jets were around the bottom of the league in cap space. The right answer would have been to give their QB, the one they thought well enough of to sign to a 13.5 million a year contract, more time, and re-addressing the position when they had more cap space and/or there was better talent to build around. Ideally, if their GM were really competent, they could have drafted a wide receiver or tight end (two positions of need with far more available talent) and see if an added playmaker could help Sanchez’s struggles. Instead, they drafted Geno Smith in the 2nd round. I’d give them credit for not reaching into the first, but they wasted that pick on CB Dee Milliner, who was neither a need nor close to the best player available. They did not draft a single tight end or wide receiver.
Okay, that’s a lot of wasted time on background, but I feel it’s important to point out just how badly this team managed a QB decision, because (spoiler!) they’ll do this again. Geno’s 2013 was simultaneously a significant improvement and a complete disaster. He averaged a full 0.57 adjusted net yards per play more than Sanchez, yet still tied for the 5th worse season (out of 149 eligible) over the last 5 years (bottom 4%). The Jets decided that was as close as they would get to progress, and made a significant effort to improve Smith’s situation, trading away Mark Sanchez, signing Eric Decker, and drafting Jace Amaro in the second round. The result? Better, but still shit. Geno’s 4.63 adjusted net yards/play still keeps him in the bottom 13%. There was hope that bringing in Michael Vick to challenge him would have sent a message, but why would that send a message when they took a significant cap hit to get rid of Sanchez?
Cue Ryan Fitzpatrick…kind of. Fitzpatrick was acquired in a trade from the Houston Texans for a conditional 6th round pick, which was exceptional for a QB who had played very well the previous year AND was on a very cheap contract. I’m not sure who was intended to be the starter in 2015, but Geno’s locker room presence led to his jaw being broken and the job being lost. Combined with the addition of Brandon Marshall (also a solid trade), the Jets actually managed not just a competent offense, but an above average one. Fitzpatrick placed in the top 41% of QBs over the past 5 years and a full yard and a half per play over Smith. At this point, new GM Mike Maccagnan was looking like he knew what he was doing, and that things would remain stable. Why? Here’s a quote from him in January of 2016. “We have time, obviously, before free agency, and we really would like to get Ryan back in the fold. [Head coach] Todd [Bowles] has said that. Obviously, I and the rest of the organization feel very strongly about this.” Just a matter of time, right?
After a couple of months, though, that didn’t seem to be the case. The two sides were not close in expected contracts. The Jets wanted to pay about 7-8 million a year, and Fitzpatrick seemed to want 12-15, though assessments varied. This was not as easy a situation as once thought, and a “wrong” decision could be understood. Once again, though, the Jets would not just mishandle, but bungle the hell out of a QB decision. In mid-March, Maccagnan began floating the possibility of Geno Smith starting. This was ridiculous. Did Maccagnan really think Smith a viable option? By mid-April, though, owner Woody Johnson added to that by stating that he didn’t think Fitzpatrick was imperative to their success. What was going on? As I enjoy giving credit where it is due, Ryan Chatelain wrote a far more professional article than this discussing the risks of Maccagnan’s approach. Go ahead and take a moment to read it. I doubt anyone in the Jets front office did because they were about to make it much, much worse.
Christian Hackenberg. Remember me asking if Mike Maccagnan really thought Geno Smith would work as leverage? You better, it was only one paragraph ago. Well, it turns out that no, he didn’t really think that, leading to the Jets wasting a second round pick on Christian Hackenberg. Forget about Fitzpatrick a moment. Let’s assume, even though we know it to be false, that the Jets had zero interest in signing Fitzpatrick or any other QB. This pick still makes no sense. They already had Geno Smith, who had a little experience, enough to start but certainly, nowhere near enough to be a mentor. You had Bryce Petty, a developmental project who had 0 season attempts in his 1 season. Now you also had Hackenberg, who was…let’s be generous and say unprepared. That’s 3 QBs in need of focused coaching and a LOT of snaps. How the hell were they going to develop them? Also, wasn’t the whole reason they were negotiating with Fitzpatrick was that they believed they had a playoff shot? If so, why not spend that second rounder to get someone who might actually contribute for the duration of that window? Finally, just to add to my accusations of incompetence, this marked the FIFTH QUARTERBACK the Jets spent draft picks on in just 4 years (Tahj Boyd was acquired and then cut in 2014).
At this point, it seemed the Jets were resigned to moving forward without Fitzpatrick, and maybe that was the best idea. After all, they had 3 QBs already, whatever relationship team and player once had seemed to be gone, and voluntary offseason training started without him. Mandatory minicamp then started, and he still hadn’t been signed. The remaining QBs started forming chemistry with the receivers. Finally, in late July, after over four months of stating in every way how unimportant he was to the team, Ryan Fitzpatrick was offered 12 million for one year. He took it and reported to camp just in time for preseason.
His play was horrible. It was the worst he’d played since his rookie year and worse than Geno Smith’s 2014 season despite having better weapons. Geno Smith did get brought back in to start but managed less than a game before getting injured. This gave Bryce Petty a little under half a season as starter, not enough to be eligible for official ranking, but if it had been, it would have been the worst single season performance over the last five years, 0.49 adjusted net yards per play worse than the previous “champion.” While I don’t think Petty looks like NFL starting material, I think this performance, coupled with Fitzpatrick’s, speaks more to the overall dysfunction of the team.
Naturally, Fitzpatrick was not re-signed. Neither was Geno. Fortunately, Josh McCown ended up available, and the Jets made absolutely sure they made the best offer, acquiring him for 1 year. I’m not sure if that means they learned their lesson or if it was a panicked decision. So, time for a verdict. They lost Fitzpatrick and Smith, will likely receive no compensatory picks for either and are once again trusting an older borderline starter. They clearly have no long-term interest in keeping him, but he’ll carry them until they presumably draft or trade for someone else. The Jets will probably improve a little, but they are still looking at another losing record, and will likely be last in the division, years away from competitiveness.
Was it worth it? It doesn’t seem to matter.
The next article will be on the San Francisco 49ers. As before, I will be checking out the comments for this article beforehand, so let me know what you think. Anything particularly intelligent or funny will get a mention.
