Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo during an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2015, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
Russell Westbrook, James Harden, LeBron James, and Kawhi Leonard will finish in the top 4 of the MVP race in some order (actually in that order, I would predict). It’s a really difficult debate to calculate the crazy raw stats of Westbrook and Harden versus the two-way play of LeBron and the Claw. But let’s put that debate aside and argue — who should be #5?
Here would be my personal rankings of the #5-10 race of the MVP debate.
Didn’t make the cut
Chris Paul: 18.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 9.2 apg, 61.3 TS%
Kyle Lowry: 22.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 7.0 apg, 62.3 TS%
Kevin Durant: 25.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.8 apg, 64.9 TS%
All three of these superstars could make the argument for a top 10 MVP based on per game, per play basis (especially Durant). But all three missed the cut based on injuries — each will have missed 20+ games. I’d still squeeze Durant onto my All-NBA 3rd team, but that’s about as generous as I can be given the time missed.
John Wall: 23.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 10.7 apg, 54.1 TS%
Bradley Beal: 23.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 60.2 TS%
John Wall may be the engine that drives the Wizards, although you could make the argument that Bradley Beal has played better this season (as illustrated by that true shooting %). Both may flirt with my All-NBA 3rd team or so, but they didn’t quite make my top 10 for MVP.
Nikola Jokic: 16.7 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 4.9 apg, 63.7 TS%
The Nuggets nearly made the playoffs by turning their team over to the Joker. In fact, he showed that he may be one of the top 10 players in the league. However, he still hasn’t cracked 28 minutes a game, which limits his total impact on the season. Maybe next year he’ll be in the top 10 if they let the chains off all year long.
Draymond Green: 10.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 7.1 apg, 52.3 TS%
Paul Millsap: 18.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 54.2 TS%
Both of these versatile forwards helped their teams make the playoffs with strong all-around games. Draymond Green’s obviously a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but Millsap’s quite underrated on that end as well. However, neither cracked my top 10 because their offense and their shooting wasn’t always “on” this year; in fact, neither cracked the 32% mark on their threes.
Karl-Anthony Towns: 25.1 ppg, 12.2 rpg, 2.7 apg, 61.6 TS%
KAT has the opposite problem of Draymond Green and Paul Millsap. His offense is simply amazing, but he’s under-the-radar still struggling on the defensive end. I’m not sure I completely buy the extent of his -1.7 defensive real-plus-minus metric, but it could explain why the Timberwolves keep underwhelming.
Anthony Davis: 28.0 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 58.0 TS%
It was hard to exclude Anthony Davis, especially because I think “winning” is a little overrated in these MVP debates. One player cannot single-handedly make his team a contender. In fact, I debated putting Anthony Davis as high as #8, based on that type of “Mike Trout” logic that the best players should be awarded. However, I simply couldn’t follow through with it; Davis’ stats are awesome (advanced and raw) but there are plenty of great stats to go around this year. In terms of All-NBA, I can be more lenient. For that, I’d debate between Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert for All-First Team center. But in an actual MVP vote, I couldn’t pick Davis over any of the top 10.
Isaiah Thomas: 29.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 5.9 apg, 62.7 TS%
Of all the exclusions, I imagine this will be the most controversial, considering the fact that Thomas may be the favorite to finish #5 in actual MVP voting. Still, as incredible as his offense has been this season, I can’t get over how much of a liability he is on the glass and on the defensive end. Unlike KAT, I do see and believe the extent of his -4.2 real +/- on that end.
#5-10 MVP
(10) Damian Lillard: 27.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 5.9 apg, 58.6 TS%
Lillard has also led Portland on a surge to slip into the playoffs and to slip into my Top 10 rankings to boot. I gave Dame a slight edge over Isaiah Thomas (who would have been my #11). Thomas is a little better on the offensive end, but Lillard is little less awful on the defensive end. His defensive +/- is only -1.4.
(9) Giannis Antetokounmpo: 23.1 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 5.4 apg, 60.0 TS%
The raw numbers on the Greek Freak are staggering, especially when you consider he’s only 22 years old. His long arms also have an effect on the defensive end, where he blocks 1.9 shots a game and has good advanced metrics. There’s still room for improvement though, particularly in his ability to hit a 3. In fact, Bucks fans may silently wonder if getting Khris Middleton back (or maybe losing Jabari?) had more of an effect on their playoff rise than the Alphabet.
(8) Rudy Gobert: 14.0 ppg, 12.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 68.4 TS%
To truly appreciate Rudy Gobert’s impact, you have to see him in person (or at least, on high-def TV). He’s simply enormous; he barely has to leave the ground to touch the rim. His offense may be modest, but it’s incredibly efficient. And his effect on the defense can’t be overlooked. If the Stifle Tower is arguably the Defensive Player of the Year (I don’t think he’ll win, but I believe he should) then that should automatically make him an MVP factor. MVP isn’t, and shouldn’t, be an Offensive Player of the Year award.
(7) Paul George: 23.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 3.3 apg, 58.4 TS%
When you watch Paul George go toe-to-toe with LeBron James, you can argue that he should be even higher on this list. The guy can simply do everything well. He’s lighting it up down the stretch and leading a mediocre Pacers team to the playoffs (probably).
(6) Jimmy Butler: 24.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 58.6 TS%
Based on the eye test, I may believe Paul George is a more skilled, better player than Jimmy Butler. However, based on this season alone, I’d give the slight edge in an MVP vote to Butler. Butler doesn’t shoot as well as George, but he drives more of an offensive load. He gets to the line more often (8.9 to 5.1 attempts per game) and playmakes more often (5.5 assists to 3.3). Despite that, Butler still averages lower turnovers (2.1 to 3.0). Additionally, Butler’s defense is better as well, according to advanced metrics. Given all that, I’d give Butler the slight edge. Of course, this is based on the presumption that both are going to make the playoffs (which Miami fans may take objection with.) If either of them falls out, then they’d fall out of my top 10 as well.
(5) Steph Curry: 25.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 6.6 apg, 62.3 TS%
The NBA media tends to award storylines and narratives, which accounts for momentum. Was 2016-17 James Harden really that much better than 2015-2016 Harden? According to the narrative, he is, because Harden may win MVP this year, after not even cracking an All-NBA team last year.
By that same logic, is 2016-17 Steph Curry really that much worse than 2015-16 Steph? Not really. Curry’s stats are closely in line with his (first) MVP season, and the Warriors continue to chug along to 60+ wins, rattling off a winning streak even without Kevin Durant. Curry continues to shoot 40%+ from three, but because that’s a little lower than usual for him, somehow no one cares. Don’t worry, Steph, I still see you. I still appreciate you. I still think you’re, easily, a top 5 MVP candidate.
EDIT: Not surprisingly, Isaiah Thomas fans hated this! I still stand by his exclusion, personally, but I appreciate the passion. I actually think John Wall may have a better argument for being in the top 10.
In general, I hope readers can appreciate that I’m trying to give my honest take and not simply posting popular opinion for the sake of “upvotes.” I know that having Thomas in the top 6 would have been the most generally agreed upon consensus, but I’d rather give my two cents (and get downvoted) than cater to groupthink.
